NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Oct. 27): Buy Low on Leonard Fournette?

NFL Week 8 gets underway with one of the most interesting Thursday Night football matchups of the year. The Ravens will head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers, who are listed as one-point home favorites. The total on this game sits at 45.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Lamar Jackson is the most expensive option on this slate, which is the norm basically every time the Ravens are involved. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy since stepping onto an NFL field, and he got off to another massive start this season. He racked up 21.22 DraftKings points in his first game of the year, and he followed it up with at least 43.42 DraftKings points in the next two weeks.

However, Jackson’s season hit a snag vs. the Bills in Week 4. He managed just 15.06 DraftKings points in that contest, and he hasn’t been able to right the ship since then. He’s coming off his worst fantasy performance of the year last week, finishing with a lousy 10.7 DraftKings points vs. the Browns. Overall, Jackson still ranks fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, but he’s just 21st in that department over the past four weeks. That is almost unfathomable given his skill set.

Things aren’t going to get any easier for him in Week 8. The Buccaneers rank fifth in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and they’re sixth against the pass. Jackson could also be without his top two pass-catchers in this contest.

Still, Jackson has enough of a track record that he’s always going to warrant stud consideration. He owns the top median projection in THE BLITZ, and his ceiling projection is first on the slate by a wide margin.

Mike Evans dropped what would have been a long touchdown last week, but he still put together a solid fantasy outing. He had 15 targets, nine catches, and 96 receiving yards, so he would’ve had a huge day if he’d held onto that ball.

Despite his massive target haul last week, Evans’ overall numbers are pretty underwhelming. He owns just a 20.0% target market share over the past four weeks, which is when Chris Godwin returned to the lineup. Evans has also been targeted on just 22.6% of his routes over that time frame.

However, Evans does make up for it with his ability to get downfield. He’s easily the team’s leader in air yards, and he racked up 59% of the team’s air yards in Week 7. That gives him some upside, although he’s clearly overpriced at $11,000 on DraftKings. He’s much more reasonable on FanDuel, where his $14,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.