NFL Week 6 features a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears. This game is currently listed as a pick ‘em, while the total sits at just 38.0 points.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Last week’s Thursday Night Football game was an abomination, and somehow, this game might be even worse. There is minimal fantasy star power to choose from, and calling any of these options “studs” is a stretch.
Carson Wentz is the most expensive option on DraftKings, and he has not had a pretty start to his season. He ranks just 24th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks per Pro Football Focus, and both Wentz and head coach Ron Rivera could be playing for their jobs.
However, Wentz’s poor play hasn’t necessarily led to poor fantasy numbers. He’s been inconsistent, but he has had some spike weeks. He’s scored at least 25.86 DraftKings points in three of five games while dipping to 9.64 or less in the other two.
The Bears are also a decent matchup. They rank just 18th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’ve also played at an above-average pace in neutral game scripts. The Bears have been slightly better against the pass than the run, but no one on their defense is particularly imposing.
The Bears defense has also struggled to get after the quarterback, ranking just 24th in adjusted sack rate. Pass protection has been a big issue for the Commanders this season, with Wentz getting pressured on nearly 35% of his dropbacks. He’s unsurprisingly been much better with a clean pocket, averaging three additional yards per attempt while increasing his completion percentage by 25%. If the Commanders can keep Wentz upright, it’s a good spot for him to put together a decent performance.
Justin Fields is the other quarterback if you can technically call what he does quarterbacking. He’s brought virtually nothing to the table from a passing perspective, averaging just 135.8 passing yards per game with just three total touchdown passes.
Fields remains a rushing threat, but he hasn’t brought much to the table in that department either. He’s not nearly as productive with his legs as some of the best dual-threat QBs, averaging just 38.8 rushing yards per game. He has added one rushing touchdown through the first five games, but it’s still not nearly enough to make up for his dreadful passing marks.
Add it all up, and Fields has yet to crack 17.02 DraftKings points in a single game, and he’s had 11.16 DraftKings points or less in three of them.
The one saving grace for Fields is the matchup. The Commanders have been a massive pass funnel this season, ranking sixth in rush defense DVOA and 29th in pass defense DVOA. That means the Bears are going to have to throw the ball more than usual in this spot, and Washington might be bad enough for Fields to produce.
Believe it or not, Fields ranks second in THE BLITZ in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, making him one of the stronger options on the slate.
David Montgomery returned to the lineup following a one-week absence, and there was some concern about what his role would look like. Khalil Herbert was extremely effective in relief of Montgomery, so some thought he had earned more of the workload even with Montgomery healthy.
However, it appears as though those concerns were unfounded. Montgomery played on 72% of the snaps and had 67% of the rushing attempts vs. the Vikings. He also had a 63% route participation and a 20% target share, and he received all the short down and distance work. He’s now scored at least 18.2 DraftKings points in each of his past two full games, and it appears as though his role is safe for the time being.
Unfortunately, the matchup vs. the Commanders is a brutal one. Montgomery owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.6 on DraftKings, which makes him tough to trust. I like him more on FanDuel, where his $15,000 salary makes him -$1,000 cheaper than Fields.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The Commanders are dealing with a host of injury concerns with their pass-catchers. Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas will both miss their second straight game, while Dyami Brown is currently questionable. Brown was massive for the Commanders in relief of Dotson and Thomas last week, so his absence would be a big deal.
Terry McLaurin remains the team’s top receiver on paper, but he hasn’t lived up to that role in reality. He has just one touchdown and one 100-yard game on the year, and he’s racked up just 12 total targets over the past two weeks.
It’s tempting to call McLaurin a buy-low candidate, but the volume doesn’t really justify it. He’ll also have to contend with Jaylon Johnson at cornerback, who is set to return after missing the past three weeks. He’s currently ranked as PFF’s No. 9 corner, so it could be tough sledding for McLaurin once again. However, McLaurin still leads the Commanders in air yards by a significant margin, so he is a candidate for a big play.
Curtis Samuel has been the team’s No. 1 option in terms of volume this season. He’s racked up a 21.7% target market share, and he’s had at least seven targets in all five games. That said, most of his volume comes around the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 5.0 yards, so he has to do plenty of work after the catch. It also limits his upside, making him a much stronger option on a full-PPR site like DraftKings.
The Antonio Gibson era may be over in Washington. He’s always been behind J.D. McKissic in the passing game, and it appears as though Brian Robinson Jr. has passed him in the run game. That makes him a very easy fade at his current price tag.
Speaking of Robinson, the rookie led the Commanders with 56% of the team’s rushing attempts last week. He finished with nine carries on just 18 snaps, and his role figures to grow as the season progresses.
However, he’s going to face a lot of the same problems that Gibson did as the team’s lead back. He’s not going to provide much in the passing game, so virtually all of his production is going to come via rushing yards and touchdowns. He’s been priced up for this matchup, so if he doesn’t find the end zone, he’s going to struggle to return value.
Darnell Mooney has been a pretty massive disaster this season. That’s not all that surprising when your quarterback isn’t even averaging 150 yards per game, but his target numbers have also fallen off a bit. He still leads the team with a 24.7% market share, but that still represents a decrease from his mark last year. He’s also no longer sharing the field with Allen Robinson, so he was expected to take a step forward, not backward.
One positive is that Mooney still leads the team with 46.3% of their air yards. That means he still has a ceiling on a weekly basis. Of course, the Bears have to complete a long pass for that to happen, and it remains to be seen if that’s actually possible.
McKissic has been a pretty steady contributor in the passing game this season. He’s had at least seven targets in three of his past four games, and he has at least 7.8 DraftKings points in all five contests. Given the team’s absences at tight end and receiver, he could be a bit busier than usual this week.
The same cannot be said for Herbert. He remains an intriguing bench stash in re-draft leagues, but it’s tough to roster him vs. the Commanders given last week’s showing. Montgomery didn’t exactly take advantage of his workload last week, but it’s likely going to take a few more poor showings for Herbert to get another chance.
Cole Kmet started the year with two straight zero-catch outings, but he’s started to turn things around of late. He has at least 40 yards in two of his past three games, and while that’s admittedly a pretty low bar, it still makes him one of the team’s most productive pass-catchers. He’s still looking for his first touchdown of the year, but tight ends always have a bit of scoring upside. He should be on the field near the goal line, which is an important first step.
NFL DFS Value & Punts Picks
- Dyami Brown ($5,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Brown is coming off a huge game last week, finishing with two catches, 105 yards, and two scores. However, he played on just 20 snaps and saw just four targets, so he’s a prime regression candidate if he’s active.
- Equanimious St. Brown ($4,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): EQSB continues to see plenty of snaps for the Bears, but he’s had an 11% target share or less in three straight games. That’s not very appealing for his price tag.
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always viable in the single-game format, especially in games that are expected to be lower scoring. For example, last week’s optimal lineup featured both kickers and both defenses. That’s a rarity, but those options definitely have appeal in this matchup.
- John Bates ($3,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Bates took over as the Commanders’ starting TE with Thomas on the shelf last week. More accurately, he split the work with Cole Turner, but he was the preferred option in the passing game.
- Velus Jones Jr. ($2,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Jones caught a touchdown last week, but he was on the field for just three snaps. He’s another player that’s an easy fade this week.
- Dante Pettis ($1,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Like St. Brown, Pettis continues to see plenty of snaps most weeks. That hasn’t led to a ton of targets, but his price tag makes him a bit more viable as a punt play.
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