NFL Week 10 features a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers starting at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Falcons are currently listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.5.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Calling anyone in this game a stud is a very liberal use of the term. Still, we have the same salary cap as we do for all the other contests, so I’m grading on a curve.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the most expensive option on DraftKings, and he returned to the Falcons’ lineup in Week 9. He wasted little time making an impact, scoring two touchdowns and racking up 18.3 DraftKings points.
However, 18.3 DraftKings points with the benefit of two touchdowns is not exactly worth bragging about. He had a minimal impact other than his scores, finishing with just 13 carries, one reception, and 53 total yards.
Patterson was stuck in a three-man committee in the Falcons’ backfield, finishing with just 39% of the snaps, 38% of the carries, and a 33% route participation. It’s possible that his role increases as he gets further removed from his injury, but it’s also possible that Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley have earned larger roles moving forward.
Even if Patterson does return to his pre-injury workload – which was closer to 50-55% of the team’s rushing attempts – that doesn’t exactly justify an $11,800 price tag. He owns the worst projected Plus/Minus in THE BLITZ, and he only ranks third in raw projected points.
Marcus Mariota is nearly -$2,000 cheaper than Patterson, making him the clear preferred option. He struggled last week vs. the Chargers, finishing with just 7.56 DraftKings points, and the Falcons have turned into one of the most run-heavy teams in football. They have the second-lowest pass rate in the league this season, and they rank 30th in pass rate above expectation.
That’s obviously not great for a quarterback, but Mariota is capable of pitching in on the ground. He’s 33.8 rushing yards per game, and he’s also added three rushing touchdowns.
The Falcons’ abysmal pass rate also hasn’t stopped him from posting some usual games recently. He’s racked up at least 24.16 DraftKings points in two of his past four contests, one of which was against the Panthers. Carolina ranks just 28th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, so Mariota is capable of repeating his success in this matchup.
He’s one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $10,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The Panthers will reportedly stick with P.J. Walker at quarterback after his disastrous showing last week vs. the Bengals. He was benched at halftime after completing nearly as many passes to the opposing team as he did to his own. It may be his last opportunity after the team activated Sam Darnold from Injured Reserve, and he could be ready to go as soon as next week.
Walker was dreadful vs. the Bengals, finishing with -1.04 DraftKings points, but he had shown some upside in previous weeks. He passed for over 300 yards in the team’s loss to the Falcons, and he had at least 15.08 DraftKings points in each of his first two starts.
Walker will probably be on a tight leash on Thursday, but it’s a great matchup if he can stay on the field. The Falcons rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA, and Walker leads the slate with a Plus/Minus of +5.0 on DraftKings.
Walker’s poor performance also submarined D.J. Moore’s fantasy value, who finished with just 4.4 DraftKings points. However, he did rack up at least 19.6 DraftKings points in his previous two games, and his fantasy stock is way up since the departure of Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. He owns a 31% target share over the past three games, and he’s been targeted on 35.1% of his routes run. He also leads the team with a 14.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and is responsible for 53.1% of their air yards.
Moore has clearly been hindered by poor quarterback play this season, but he remains one of the best young receivers in football. He had at least 1,150 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons, so he’s a capable producer when given opportunities.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Terrace Marshall Jr. is another Panthers’ pass-catcher on the rise. There was plenty of hope for Marshall when the team drafted him in the second round in 2021. He was a part of arguably the most talented college receiving corps in recent memory, teaming up with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson at LSU. That had an impact on his production, but he broke out at just 19.2 years old and has strong athletic measurables (per Player Profiler).
Marshall was used sparingly as a rookie, but he’s starting to make his mark in his sophomore season. He’s played on at least 83% of the snaps in three straight weeks, and he’s had a route participation of at least 95% in all three contests. Overall, he has a 20.7% target share and a 27.9% air yards share over that time frame.
The only issue with Marshall is his DraftKings salary. He’s only -$800 cheaper than Moore, who is still the far more productive player. He’s much more reasonable on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with a 93% Bargain Rating.
The Falcons have a promising young receiver of their own in Drake London. He got off to a phenomenal start this season, but the Falcons’ shift to a run-heavy scheme has limited his production. He’s finished with 7.5 DraftKings points or fewer in six straight games, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all six contests. London still remains the focal point of the Falcons’ offense when they do take to the air, leading the team with a 28.7% target share. That said, it’s hard to get too excited about anyone who catches passes for Atlanta.
The Panthers’ rushing attack has provided value in recent weeks, but they’re currently dealing with a key injury. Chuba Hubbard is questionable after missing the past two weeks, and his return would make things a bit more complicated.
Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman formed a committee in their first game without McCaffrey. Foreman had a slight edge in rushing attempts – he finished with 15 carries for 118 yards – but Hubbard had more targets and found the end zone. Both players would have some viability in this matchup if they’re active, but neither player would be a significant value.
The more appealing scenario would be Hubbard being ruled out. That would make Foreman the clear top option in the Panthers’ backfield, and he racked up 34.8 DraftKings points in Week 8 vs. the Falcons. Raheem Blackshear would also see an increase in value in that situation after racking up 15.1 DraftKings points last week.
Kyle Pitts is arguably the most frustrating player in fantasy football. He entered the league with more hype than any tight end in recent history. The fantasy community was basically building his bust for Canton before he even played an NFL game. He checks all the boxes that you look for in a prospect – athleticism, college production, size – and he has minimal competition for targets in Atlanta.
Unfortunately, he’s struggled to put things together on a consistent basis. He’s shown flashes, finishing with five catches, 80 yards, and a touchdown two weeks ago vs. the Panthers, but he followed that up with a two-catch, 27-yard performance in his last outing.
Still, there are some encouraging signs with Pitts. He’s racked up a 32.3% target share over the past three weeks, and he also leads the team in air yards this season. There’s no guarantee that leads to any production this week, but he has solid upside for his price tag.
Tyler Allgeier’s role took a hit with the return of Patterson, but he still managed to carve out a decent role. He turned his 10 carries into 99 yards, and he caught his lone target for 24 yards. Given how frequently the Falcons run the ball, he should continue to have some involvement on a weekly basis. His touchdown-scoring upside is minimal, but I’d rather pay $6,200 for him than nearly double for Patterson.
Olamide Zaccheaus has served as the Falcons’ No. 2 receiver, and he’s run plenty of routes this season. However, he has just a 13% target market share for the year, and he has just three targets over the past two weeks. It’s hard for the Falcons to support even one pass-catcher, and Zaccheaus is clearly behind London and Pitts in the pecking order. That makes him very tough to roster at $5,400.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Neither of these defenses has been good this season, but the total on this game is pretty low.
- Caleb Huntley ($4,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Huntley is the Falcons’ No. 3 running back, and he played on 21% of the snaps and had 21% of the team’s carries last week. If Patterson is going to take on a larger role in Week 10, it seems like Huntley might be the guy who loses the most.
- Damiere Byrd ($4,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Byrd is the Falcons’ No. 3 receiver, and he brings some big play potential to the table. He had just one target last week, but he had at least 40% of the team’s air yards in the two previous contests. He’s a bit overpriced, but he has some ceiling.
- Shi Smith ($3,600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Smith played on nearly 80% of the snaps last week, and he’s had a handful of targets in recent weeks.
- Tommy Tremble ($3,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Tremble is the Panthers’ top tight end, but that hasn’t led to a huge role. He had just a 58% snap share last week, but he did make up for it with a touchdown.
- Laviska Shenault Jr. ($3,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Shenault played on just three snaps last week, but he did see one target. He’s not really worth consideration.
- Ian Thomas ($2,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Thomas is another bit player for the Panthers, finishing with just 18 snaps last week. He wasn’t targeted, but he does have at least one target in every other game this season.
- KhaDarel Hodge ($1,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Hodge saw a slight uptick in snaps last week, and he finished with two targets. That said, those were his only targets in the past month.
- Spencer Brown ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Like Blackshear, Brown has also played a minimal role with Hubbard out of the lineup over the past two weeks. That includes four targets, which would give him some appeal if Hubbard is out again.
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