Sunday Night gives us essentially an elimination game in the NFC playoff race between the Vikings and Packers. The Vikings are listed as one-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Justin Jefferson rightfully leads the way on this showdown slate after a strong performance against the Lions last week. He caught six of 10 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. He looked fully healthy and returned to commanding strong volume.
We’ve seen this Packers defense struggle against receivers as of late, giving up over 90 yards to Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Chris Godwin, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Keenan Allen over the past six games. Green Bay will be without Jaire Alexander as well for this contest, as he’s serving a one-game suspension.
To boost Jefferson’s outlook even more, Green Bay plays the fourth-highest rate of Cover 3 in the league, and Jefferson has a 31% target rate per route run against that type of coverage.
Jordan Love continues to impress in his first year as the starter, keeping Green Bay’s playoff hopes alive. He played great against Carolina last week, throwing for 219 yards and two touchdowns while running for 12 yards and a score on the ground.
He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in four of the past six games, but he gets a tough matchup with the Vikings here. They had him in a blender the first time these teams played, when Love completed fewer than 60% of his passes for 229 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
However, Love has looked far more comfortable and confident as of late. He’s a strong play Sunday night.
Aaron Jones was utilized heavily in last week’s win over Carolina, and Jones doesn’t carry an injury designation for this game against Minnesota. He carried the ball 21 times for 127 yards last week and caught one of three targets for eight yards.
Green Bay continues to be shorthanded at receiver, with Christian Watson doubtful and Dontayvion Wicks questionable. Green Bay will likely lean on their veteran back in this spot.
The Vikings have allowed the seventh-fewest yards per carry and 12th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing backs on the year, but Jones is an explosive back who should see a lot of volume. He does lose carries around the goal line, which is a bit of a worry.
Romeo Doubs has been Love’s go-to guy in a few big spots, including last week when he made a miraculous 36-yard catch down the sideline to put Green Bay in position to kick a game-winning field goal.
He’s a bit of a touchdown-dependent play, as he’s reached double-digit DraftKings points in only two of the eight games where he didn’t find pay dirt. He’s had a nose for the end zone though, with eight on the year and finding paydirt in seven different games. He’s viable in tournaments, but I’m not too high on him in this price range.
Jaren Hall is very cheap for a quarterback, has a few elite weapons at his disposal, and is playing a Packers defense that has made opposing quarterbacks look like Hall of Famers as of late.
He started one game earlier this year, but he got hurt after attempting to run in a touchdown at the goal line. Hall was a great thrower with mobility in college, and he’s a strong option at a cheap price.
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NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Ty Chandler took control of the Minnesota backfield last week, but the game script limited him to just eight carries for 17 yards and a score. Alexander Mattison was still active, but he played just five snaps. Green Bay has a reputation of getting gashed by backs, but they’ve actually been fairly solid as of late.
They held the Minnesota backfield to 58 yards on 27 touches in Week 8 and held Chuba Hubbard to 43 yards on 16 carries last week. Chandler is still a strong option, but he doesn’t jump off the page as a priority in my eyes.
Jordan Addison is dealing with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. He was limited in practice Thursday and Friday, making him appear truly questionable for this matchup. He’s a viable target if he plays, but I’d prefer Jayden Reed, who I’ll touch on in a second.
If Addison misses, K.J. Osborn would see a bump and become viable, but he’s not on my radar at his current price if Addison plays. Brandon Powell would become an intriguing value piece with Addison out, as he ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks after Addison exited last week.
Osborn still will see a slight boost regardless of Addison’s status since T.J. Hockenson is now sidelined, but not enough for me to consider him if Addison plays.
Reed is a strong target in the mid-range, as he’ll likely be a focal point of the passing game with Watson surely out and Wicks questionable. Minnesota has allowed the most receptions per game to slot receivers, where Reed plays over 70% of his snaps. He touched up Minnesota when these teams first played, catching four of six targets for 83 yards.
With Luke Musgrave expected to miss again, Tucker Kraft will serve as Green Bay’s tight end, having run a route on 86% of the dropbacks since Musgrave got hurt.
Kraft caught four balls for 60 yards last week, having exceeded 50 yards in three straight games. Minnesota is a middling matchup against tight ends. Kraft isn’t a priority, but he’s a strong option.
If Dontayvion Wicks does play, I’d be surprised. He’s a viable tournament option, as he’s been a target earner consistently when he’s out there.
AJ Dillon has returned to the backup role with Aaron Jones back. He had seven carries for 12 yards and a touchdown against Carolina. He’s too expensive for his role, as although he’s the goal line back, he needs more than just a touchdown to pay off his tag.
Josh Oliver is far more expensive, but Johnny Mundt is the tight end to want in Minnesota with Hockenson out. After Hockenson left last week, Mundt ran 14 pass routes to just seven for Oliver. Mundt is a strong value option, while Oliver isn’t on my radar at his price.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Malik Heath ($3,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): The status of Dontayvion Wicks is very important, as Heath will surely see an increase in playing time if Wicks misses. With Wicks leaving mid-game and Reed out last week, Heath played on 77% of the dropbacks. If just Wicks misses, I’d expect him somewhere in the 50-60% range as the WR3. If Wicks plays, he’ll likely revert to around 30% of snaps.
- Bo Melton ($2,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Melton impressed last week, earning six targets and catching four balls for 44 yards. Like Heath, we have to monitor Wicks’ status. He played well last week, which may allow him to cut into Heath’s role as the WR3 if Wicks is out. With Wicks healthy, I’m likely not going to Melton. You’d have to guess right that he takes some work away from Heath, and then you’d need him to still earn targets.
