NFL Week 4 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers at 8:15 p.m. ET. The 49ers are currently listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.5.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
These two division rivals played three times last year, with the 49ers winning both regular season contests. However, the Rams got the win when it mattered most, picking up a three-point victory in the NFC Championship.
The year may be different, but Cooper Kupp remains the same dominant fantasy force. He’s coming off a rare down performance in Week 3, finishing with just four catches for 44 yards, but he started the year with two monster performances. He had at least 14 targets in both games, and he responded with averages of 12 catches, 118 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Those were even better than his averages from last year when he won the receiving triple crown.
Kupp continues to serve as one of the busiest pass-catchers in football. His 35% target share through the first three weeks ranks second in the league, trailing only Mark Andrews’ mark of 36.5%. He’s also racked up 46.1% of the Rams’ air yards, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league.
That said, the 49ers are an extremely tough matchup. They rank fifth in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’re third in adjusted sack rate. That could spell trouble against the Rams’ offensive line, which has been a weak spot this season.
Still, Kupp is capable of succeeding in any matchup. He racked up 11 catches for 142 yards vs. the 49ers in the postseason last year, and he had 34.8 DraftKings points when the Bills had seven sacks in Week 1. He leads THE BLITZ in median and ceiling projection by a comfortable margin, and he stands out as one of the best pure values on DraftKings as well.
Kupp will be catching passes from Matthew Stafford, and he’s had a tumultuous start to his season. He put together an outstanding year in his first season with the Rams, racking up 41 touchdowns while averaging 287.4 passing yards per game, but his play has fallen off drastically through the first three weeks. He ranks 23rd among quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points per game, putting him behind notable studs like Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, and Baker Mayfield. Stafford also has two performances of 10.8 DraftKings points or less.
The matchup vs. the 49ers should impact him more than Kupp. He struggled in three matchups vs. the 49ers last year, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.84 (per the Trends tool). His worst performance came in his lone road game vs. the 49ers, where he finished with just 11.82 DraftKings points.
Quarterbacks are always going to have some appeal in the single-game format, but Stafford seems a bit too expensive given the matchup.
Deebo Samuel remains one of the most unique players in football. He’s served as a hybrid wide receiver/running back since the middle of last season, and he’s had plenty of success in both roles.
That said, while his rushing upside does give him a slightly better floor than most receivers, it might actually limit his ceiling. Receptions are the superior method for scoring fantasy points – especially on a full PPR site like DraftKings – and Samuel has posted significantly worse numbers as a pass-catcher so far this season. His average of 43.7 receiving yards per game is roughly half his average from last year.
Still, there are reasons to believe in some progression moving forward. He still leads the team with a 27.5% target market share, and he’s scored just one touchdown through the first three weeks. Samuel had 14 touchdowns in 16 games last year, so he’s a bounce-back candidate in both departments.
Jimmy Garoppolo is back at the helm for the 49ers, and things didn’t go well in his first start of the year. He struggled in a tough matchup vs. the Broncos, finishing with just 10.44 DraftKings points.
The Rams have been a strong defensive team in the past, but they’ve struggled a bit against the pass this season. They rank just 22nd in pass defensive DVOA, although that number is definitely inflated by their Week 1 performance vs. the Bills. Still, their numbers so far this season give Garoppolo an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.4 on DraftKings.
Garoppolo is still a quarterback, but he’s clearly the weakest option in the stud tier. He doesn’t provide much savings compared to Stafford and Samuel, but his median and ceiling projections are significantly worse.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The 49ers are one of the most run-heavy teams in football, and they’ve lost two players at running back to start the year. Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price are both currently sidelined with injuries, leaving Jeff Wilson Jr. as the team’s primary runner.
Wilson is going to lose some touches to Samuel, but he dominated the RB opportunities last week. He played on 73% of the snaps and racked up 57% of the carries. Those numbers may not sound like much, but backup RB Jordan Mason played on just five snaps and saw only one carry.
That gives Wilson some legit upside vs. the Rams. Their defense has been far better against the run than the pass so far this season, but the 49ers were able to run the ball well in their regular season matchups vs. the Rams last year. He stands out as one of the top options in terms of projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models.
While Samuel has been the 49ers’ most targeted receiver, Brandon Aiyuk has been the big-play threat. He’s racked up more than 40% of the team’s air yards, and no other pass-catcher is above even 14.7%. His average depth of target (aDOT) checks in at 13.0 yards, also ranking first among the team’s regulars. Aiyuk has also had eight targets in back-to-back games with Garoppolo under center, compared to just two in his only full game with Trey Lance.
He’s definitely worth some consideration given the matchup. The 49ers’ receivers lead the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.9 on DraftKings.
Both of the Rams’ running backs are priced right next to each other, and both players have something working in their favor. They played to a 50-50 split in terms of snaps last week, with Cam Akers getting most of the attempts. He’s the team’s clear preferred short-yardage runner, which gives him nice touchdown upside on a weekly basis. Darrell Henderson is the top pass-catching option out of the backfield, so he has more PPR potential.
However, the Rams really haven’t thrown the ball to their running backs since the first week of the year. Henderson had five targets in Week 1 but just one over the past two weeks of the year. Ultimately, that makes Akers the preferred option.
George Kittle suited up for the first time last week, and he was a solid part of the 49ers’ passing attack. He racked up five targets, but he finished with just four catches for 28 yards.
Kittle is one of the most talented tight ends in football, but the 49ers’ weak passing attack limits his upside. However, he did get a red zone target last week, and he should be one of Garoppolo’s favorite targets near the goal line. He’s also one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with an 88% Bargain Rating.
Allen Robinson was a massive disappointment in Week 1, and he’s not going to see the level of target volume he’s used to playing next to Kupp. However, he has seen five targets in back-to-back weeks, and half of those targets have come in the red zone. He converted one of those looks into a touchdown, and his red zone volume gives him more scoring upside than the typical receiver in this price range.
Tyler Higbee rounds out this price range, and he’s been much more involved in the Rams’ passing attack than he was last year. He owns a 24% target share through the first three weeks, which trails only Andrews at the tight end position.
That hasn’t led to a ton of fantasy production, but he’s a strong progression candidate moving forward. He’s averaged 14.7 expected DraftKings points per game per Pro Football Focus, so he’s been one of the unluckiest players at this position. His average of -3.7 fantasy points below expectation is tied for the third-highest mark among tight ends.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Ben Skowronek ($4,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Skowronek has served as the Rams No. 3 receiver this season, so he’s played on the majority of their snaps. He’s had at least three targets in each contest, and he racked up 66 yards last week vs. the Cardinals.
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always viable in the single-game format, especially in games that are expected to be low scoring. That said, make sure to correlate the rest of your lineups around them.
- Brandon Powell ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Powell had three targets last week, but he played on just six total snaps. He’s not a legit option.
- Jauan Jennings ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Jennings is the 49ers’ No. 3 receiver, which puts him fourth on the pecking order when you include Kittle. He has a smidge of upside, but the 49ers’ barely throw enough to support one pass-catcher, let alone four.
- Jordan Mason ($1,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Mason wasn’t particularly involved last week, but there’s no guarantee that’s the case again vs. the Rams. The 49ers have relied on multiple running backs for most of the year, so it’s possible Mason gets a bit more week moving forward.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($1,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): He’s always a threat to catch a pass or see a carry around the goal line, but he’s going to be very inconsistent.
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