Week 4 comes to a close with Seattle traveling to New York to face the Giants at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Seahawks are listed as 2-point home favorites, while the total sits at 47 points.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Saquon Barkley comes in as the highest-priced player on Monday’s slate but is listed as doubtful with his high-ankle sprain. I’m not expecting him to suit up, but even if he does, I likely won’t be rostering him. I doubt he sees enough of a workload or is effective enough to pay off his tag.
Kenneth Walker III has had a strong start to the season, averaging 19.9 DraftKings points through three contests and topping 30 last week. He’s seen 17, 19, and 21 opportunities in the three games, showing he’s a staple of this offense. He carries a high price tag, but he’s certainly in play.
However, the emergence of Zach Charbonnet is worrisome. Walker’s snap share dropped from 61% in Week 2 to 49% in Week 3, with his rushing share dropping from 77% to 55%.
I’m not pressing the panic button yet, as Walker has seen every carry except one inside the five-yard line, and he’s still seen enough volume that Charbonnet seeing work isn’t too worrisome. However, he likely won’t be my first click in the stud section.
It was a slow start in Week 1 for Geno Smith, but he’s turned it around since. He’s averaged 8.0 and 8.2 yards per attempt over the past two games. The matchup is middling, with New York ranking 18th in DraftKings points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
This is also a different offense than years past, as Seattle is leaning into the pass more than usual. Smith projects as a very strong option.
Daniel Jones rounds out the stud section, and his box score is truly a sight to see. He posted 6.46 DraftKings points in Week 1 against Dallas before catching fire against Arizona en route to 34.74 DraftKings points. Did that momentum continue? No, not at all. San Francisco held him to just 4.98 DraftKings points.
The good news is that Jones leapfrogs into a smash matchup tonight with Seattle. They’ve given up over 300 yards to Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Andy Dalton. To be fair, Jones heavily struggled last year in this matchup, but that Seattle defense was better than this one.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett headline the mid-tier section, with me preferring the more expensive option.
Metcalf has a 31% target share against man coverage as opposed to 19% against zone so far this year. These numbers track back to last season, with 34% and 22% rates. Metcalf also succeeded in this matchup last year. He only played 63% of the snaps due to injury but still had a 34% target rate per route run, catching six of ten targets for 55 yards and a TD.
Lockett has a 19% target rate against man coverage, compared to 22% against zone. He did succeed in last year’s matchup also, catching five balls for 63 yards and a touchdown.
With Lockett having the cheaper price tag, he’ll likely see higher ownership. I prefer Metcalf here.
Darren Waller hasn’t seen much success so far this season, but his role is still very strong. The struggles are fair, as matchups with San Francisco and Dallas in the first three weeks are difficult.
We’ve seen Seattle get shredded in the middle of the field so far this year, and Waller has seen 29% of the team targets between the numbers. Seattle is also allowing the most yards per target to tight ends on the year.
With Barkley likely to miss this game, Matt Breida will be the team’s lead back again. That didn’t mean much last week, as San Francisco suffocated New York. Breida had four carries for 17 yards and a touchdown while catching three of three targets for 1 yard.
Regardless, he played on 80% of the snaps last week while running a route on over half of the dropbacks. This is another tough matchup, as Seattle has allowed the third-lowest yards per carry to opposing backs. However, his price tag is very manageable, and his role is valuable.
Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton join us for another rendition of “Hold your nose and pick a Giants’ wide receiver!”
Slayton leads all receivers in terms of snaps, with 73%, 82%, and 83% through three games. He’s seen five, six, and six targets through three games, catching three balls in each contest.
Hodgins saw just one target last egg and ended with a zero. He played on about two-thirds of the snaps, but I personally prefer the savings to Slayton or finding the salary for Breida/Waller.
First-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t been utilized as much as we’d like. He’s running a route on about two-thirds of the team dropbacks on the year. He’s seen 14 targets but is averaging just 2.7 air yards per target. It’s hard to get too excited here.
Gary Brightwell‘s price is still too high for his role, as this is pretty much Breida’s backfield with Barkley out. He saw four carries and three targets last week but was drastically out-snapped by Breida.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected high-scoring nature, these options may be less appealing than usual, especially with how much value this slate has.
- Zach Charbonnet ($3,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): As noted earlier, Charbonnet has been cutting into Kenneth Walker’s workload. He saw nine carries last week for 46 yards and caught one of two targets for -1 yards. We could be trending closer to a split backfield, and his price tag is very cheap.
- Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Wan’Dale only ran a route on 25% of dropbacks last week but saw a whopping 56% target rate per route run. It’s tough because Seattle is vulnerable in the middle of the field, and they’re down multiple nickel cornerbacks, but Robinson will split reps with Parris Campbell.
- Parris Campbell ($2,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Speaking of Campbell, he also comes in very cheap. If we could just turn him and Robinson into one player for tonight’s slate, it’d be ideal. He only ran a route on 40% of dropbacks last week with Robinson back. Campbell is viable, but I prefer Robinson of the two.
- Jalin Hyatt ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Hyatt has run 17, 12, and 13 routes through the first three games, serving as a deeper threat. We ideally want to attack Seattle in the middle, so I prefer finding the money to Robinson personally.
- Colby Parkinson ($800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Parkinson has run a route on 40% of dropbacks on the year and has seen 2, 3, and 4 targets. Fellow tight ends Noah Fant and Will Dissly are listed as questionable. If either or both were to miss, it would likely lead to an increased role for Parkinson.
- Jake Bobo ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Speaking of the tight end injuries, they may serve to help Jake Bobo as well. He’s already running a route on about a quarter of the dropbacks, with an 11% target rate per route run. If the tight ends miss, we could see more receivers on the field for Seattle, opening up more time for Bobo.