NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Oct. 17): Is Austin Ekeler Due For Regression?

NFL Week 6 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are currently listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Unsurprisingly, most of the stud options on this slate are going to come from the Chargers. The Broncos offense has been an abomination this season, ranking 31st in the league in points per game. They’ve scored 16 points or fewer in four of five games, and they lost last week’s contest despite surrendering zero touchdowns. That’s hard to accomplish.

The Chargers are led by quarterback Justin Herbert, who is having another quality season. He’s averaged just under 300 passing yards per game to go along with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Overall, he ranks 10th at the position in fantasy points per game.

Herbert has also historically done some of his best work in prime time. He’s played in seven games starting at 8 p.m. ET or later, and he’s averaged 28.69 DraftKings points and a +6.82 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). That makes him the anti-Kirk Cousins.

However, Herbert draws a brutal matchup vs. the Broncos. As bad as their offense has been, they’re still 2-3 thanks to their elite defense. They rank second in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Herbert owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.9 on DraftKings. That’s the worst mark on the slate by a wide margin. Herbert struggled at home against the Broncos last season, finishing with just 17.68 DraftKings points.

Still, Herbert possesses one of the top median and ceiling projections in THE BLITZ, and he’s not the most expensive option on DraftKings. He’s the priciest option by $1,500 on FanDuel, so his DraftKings salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Austin Ekeler is the most expensive player on DraftKings, and he’s coming off back-to-back monster performances. He’s scored at least 38.9 DraftKings points in two straight games, and he’s done it in different ways. He had six catches and three touchdowns two weeks ago, and he had 173 rushing yards last week vs. the Browns.

However, Ekeler has undoubtedly been a bit lucky to start the year. His workload isn’t what you would typically expect for a high-end fantasy running back. He’s played on just 57% of the snaps and garnered 48% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts through the first five weeks. He does make up for it with his work in the passing game and his touchdown-scoring upside, but he’s averaged just 17.2 expected DraftKings points per game (per Pro Football Focus). Overall, he’s exceeded his expected fantasy output by an average of +5.6 points per game, which is the third-highest mark among running backs.

With that in mind, it’s fair to expect some regression for Ekeler moving forward. Still, getting to around 20 fantasy points would represent significant regression compared to the last two weeks, and he’d still be a solid option at his current price tag.

With Keenan Allen still out of the lineup, Mike Williams will remain the team’s top pass-catcher. He’s logged at least 10 targets in three of the past four weeks, and he’s scored at least 22.0 DraftKings points in all three. The only exception was the Week 3 loss to the Jaguars where Herbert was playing at less than 100%.

Williams has also been a monster in terms of air yards. He’s gobbled up 45.1% of the Chargers’ air yards since Week 2, good for the sixth-highest mark in the league over that time frame. The Broncos are a tough matchup, but Williams clearly has some upside with Allen sidelined.

Russell Wilson is the only “stud” option for the Broncos, and that’s probably pushing it. Wilson has looked terrible for most of the season, scoring 12.06 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games. He’s also reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to receive a PRP injection last week.

Can Wilson right the ship moving forward? It’s possible, but I’m skeptical it’ll happen vs. the Chargers. Los Angeles has been much better against the pass than the run, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA.

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NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Courtland Sutton has emerged as the Broncos’ clear No. 1 wide receiver. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in all five games this season, despite the team’s offensive futility. He’s had at least 10 targets in three of the past four weeks, and he ranks sixth in the league in target market share over that time frame. Sutton has also accounted for 42.5% of the team’s air yards, so he checks all the boxes for fantasy purposes.

He stands out as one of the best values on the slate per THE BLITZ, leading in players in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Melvin Gordon is officially questionable for this contest, but all indications point toward him taking the field. He was able to get in a few limited practice sessions to close the week, so expect him to be in the lineup.

As long as he’s active, he should lead the Broncos’ backfield in touches. He didn’t see quite as big of a spike as some were expecting with Javonte Williams sidelined, but he still racked up 15 attempts and three targets vs. the Colts. He should be able to find a bit more success this week vs. the Chargers, who rank just 22nd in rush defense DVOA. This also qualifies as a #RevengeGame, if you’re into that kind of thing.

Jerry Jeudy is the No. 2 receiver in Denver, and he’s coming off a season-high eight targets last week. That puts him well behind Sutton for the year, but it’s much closer when you look at targets per route run. Sutton has been targeted on 24.7% of his routes, while Jeudy checks in at 20.1%. However, Sutton still holds a clear edge in air yards, giving him the superior ceiling.

Still, the problem with Jeudy has not been his involvement but rather Denver’s putrid offense. If Wilson is going to continue to struggle, there are not going to be enough fantasy points to satisfy all their receivers. His price tag is reasonable, but I’m probably most interested in using him in Broncos’ stacks.

Josh Kelley and Sony Michel are both priced insanely high on DraftKings. Kelley is coming off a decent rushing workload last week, while Michel did get a goal-line carry. Still, there’s no reason to really consider either player at above $6k.

Both players are much more reasonable on FanDuel, and Kelly is the preferred option of the two. Michel played on just two snaps last week, while Kelly saw a season-high 38% snap share and 32% carry share. I’ll pay the extra $2k for him over Michel every time.

Josh Palmer will continue to see a slight boost in value for as long as Allen is sidelined. That didn’t pay dividends last week – he finished with just 5.4 DraftKings points – but he did have at least six targets for the third time in four weeks. He’s had two games with at least 13.0 DraftKings points during that stretch, so he’s capable of paying off this price tag.

The same goes for Gerald Everett. He’s coming off a poor performance last week, but he’s been a solid part of the Chargers’ offense this season. However, the Broncos have been excellent against opposing tight ends this season, ranking fifth in DVOA vs. the position.

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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

Mike Boone ($4,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Boone got in a full practice on Friday and should be good to go vs. the Chargers. Boone has a solid role with Williams out, logging 26% and most of the passing-down snaps last week. That’s enough to make him viable vs. the Chargers, especially with Gordon banged up.
Kickers & Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
K.J. Hamler ($3,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): The Broncos said they needed to get Hamler more involved last week, and he had a season-high 72% route participation. That’s a great first step, but he still saw just two targets in that contest. Still, the fact that he was on the field more is clearly encouraging, and he’s a nice upside play at just $3,000.
DeAndre Carter ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Carter saw a slight reduction in routes last week, and his average depth of target (aDOT) was a paltry 0.5 yards. He does have a red zone target in three straight weeks, but that’s the only thing keeping him relevant.
Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Okwuegbunam bounced back from playing on just one snap in Week 4 to post a 30% snap share last week. Eric Saubert is questionable, and Albert O would get a shot at redemption if he’s unable to suit up.
Eric Saubert ($2,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): If Saubert can play, he’s the clear TE to target for the Broncos. He had an 86% route participation in Week 4, and he followed that up with a 17% target share in Week 5. He managed just 8.6 DraftKings points in that contest, but he’s clearly underpriced for his current role in the Broncos’ offense.
Latavius Murray ($1,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Murray didn’t see the field last week, and he would only be viable if Gordon and/or Boone are surprise inactives.
Donald Parham Jr. ($1,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Parham suited up for the first time last week, and he had a 15% route participation. However, the big man did have an end zone target, which is an area where he specializes. He’s a threat for a cheap touchdown.