NFL Week 6 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Najee Harris at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $17,700 as opposed to $11,800.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
In these articles, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to break down the slate. And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups.
Studs
These teams have both provided massive fantasy value in the past, but things are a bit bleaker in 2021-22. The Steelers have not been the same offensive juggernaut, while the Seahawks will be missing their starting backfield. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the total sits at a pedestrian 42.5 points.
Harris is the most expensive player on this slate, and he’s lived up to expectations as a rookie. He’s been a true workhorse for the Steelers. He’s racked up 78 carries through the first five weeks, and no other player on the squad has more than eight.
Harris has also been extremely involved in the passing game. He’s seen 39 targets this season, which is the top mark on the squad. That number is inflated by a ridiculous 19 target performance in Week 3, but he’s seen at least five targets in each of his past four games.
That combination makes him matchup-proof. If the Steelers jump out to a lead, Harris has the potential for his second-straight 100-yard rushing game. If they don’t, he should provide some value as a receiver. He’s also the Steelers’ primary threat near the goal line, so he checks every box you’re looking for in a fantasy running back.
It’s been a sad season for Ben Roethlisberger. He’s a far cry from the player he was in his prime, and he’s posted 18.22 DraftKings points or less in his first five games. He’s getting rid of the ball quicker than any other quarterback in football, which makes it tough for him to rack up yards and touchdowns.
That said, this is a potential get-right spot for Big Ben. The Seahawks rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and 25th in adjusted sack rate. He’ll also take the field as a home favorite, which is a situation that Roethlisberger has historically relished. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.27 in 43 previous starts as a home favorite (per the Trends tool). If Roethlisberger can’t take advantage of this spot, it might be panic time for the Steelers’ passing attack.
Geno Smith will start at quarterback for the Seahawks, and he was strong in relief of Russell Wilson last week. He racked up 10.54 DraftKings points in roughly one-half of football thanks to 131 passing yards and a touchdown. He’s also a threat with his legs, which is always a plus for a fantasy quarterback.
That said, his track record suggests he’s going to struggle in this matchup. He’s averaged just 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt for his career, and he’s thrown seven more interceptions than touchdowns. The Steelers pass defense hasn’t been as good as expected this season, but they still have plenty of talent on that side of the ball. Quarterbacks are always viable in the single-game format, but Smith is not a particularly appealing option in our NFL Models.
D.K. Metcalf will suffer playing with Smith instead of Wilson, but this does stand out as an excellent matchup. Pro Football Focus gives him a sizable advantage over the Steelers’ cornerback trio. He’s expected to see most of his snaps against James Pierre, who has allowed 0.36 fantasy points per route run this season. That’s the worst mark among the Steelers’ corners.
Metcalf also caught Smith’s only touchdown pass last week, so it’s possible they have a bit of chemistry.
Midrange
The Steelers’ wide receiver duo of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool headlines this price range. Both players should benefit from the absence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is expected to miss the rest of the season.
Johnson is typically the target hog for the Steelers. He racked up at least 10 targets in each of his first three games this season, but he finished with just two last week vs. the Broncos. He still managed to salvage his fantasy value by turning those targets into two catches for 72 yards and a touchdown, but that’s slightly concerning.
Even with that subpar volume, Johnson still ranks second on the team with a 19% target share. His three receiving touchdowns is also the top mark on the team.
Claypool is more of the big-play threat for the Steelers. He ranks third on the team in target share, but his 32% air yards share is easily the top mark on the team. He also leads the team with three endzone targets. Claypool racked up five targets for 130 yards and one touchdown last week, resulting in a season-high 27.0 DraftKings points.
Both players clearly have appeal on this slate, but our models give a slight edge to Johnson. However, Claypool owns a slightly better correlation with Roethlisberger (0.43 vs. 0.30), so he might make sense if you’re only using one in Steelers’ stacks.
Tyler Lockett came out of the gates red-hot this season, finishing with 278 receiving yards and three touchdowns through his first two games. Since then, his production has waned. He did see 10 targets last week, but he managed just five catches for 57 yards.
Lockett plays primarily out of the slot, which sets up a matchup vs. Arthur Maulet. Maulet was awesome last week, but he was in coverage on just eight snaps. He was very exploitable last year, posting just a 45.7 PFF grade in coverage. Lockett should be able to get the best of him.
Overall, the Seahawks receivers own an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.8 on DraftKings, which trails only Harris’ mark on this slate.
If missing Wilson wasn’t enough, the Seahawks will also be without Chris Carson vs. the Steelers. That means Alex Collins should handle most of the running back responsibilities. He served as a bell-cow back last week, totaling 15 carries and three targets. He didn’t exactly make the most of those opportunities – he finished with just 9.2 DraftKings points – but it does predict future success.
Unfortunately, the Steelers rush defense has been strong this season. They rank sixth in rush defense DVOA, and Collins owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.3.
The injury to Smith-Schuster has allowed James Washington to operate as the Steelers’ WR3. That’s a valuable role. He played on 49 snaps in Week 5 – more than Claypool – and garnered five targets. He’s underpriced at $5,200 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel.
Gerald Everett has missed the past two games due to COVID-19, but he should be back in the lineup on Sunday. He’s a bit overpriced on DraftKings, but he’s an excellent option at just $6,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s already logged five targets in one game this season and scored a touchdown in another, so he’s shown the ability to pay off his salary in multiple ways.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- Eric Ebron ($3,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Ebron has been quiet so far this season, but he’s a threat for a cheap touchdown on FanDuel.
- Pat Freiermuth ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Freiermuth has played more snaps than Ebron this season, so he’s the preferred Steelers’ TE on DraftKings. He also has the only touchdown between the two players, and he’s had a five-target game.
- Freddie Swain ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Swain has quietly played a bunch for the Seahawks this season. Maybe that will change with Everett back in the lineup this week, but he has upside at his current price tag. He’s already had two games with at least 11.0 DraftKings points this season.
- Ray-Ray McCloud ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): McCloud is also a factor in the Steelers’ passing attack given the absence of Smith-Schuster. He played on more than 50% of the snaps last week and garnered two targets. That’s enough to make him viable at $2,000.
- Will Dissly ($1,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Dissly played on every snap last week, but he should revert to his TE2 role this week. However, the Seahawks have leaned on two-TE sets quite a bit this season, so he still figures to see a solid handful of snaps.
- Travis Homer ($800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Homer has some sneaky upside on this slate, particularly at $800 on DraftKings. He’s the Seahawks’ pass-catching back, and he could play more than expected if the Steelers jump out to an early lead.
- DeeJay Dallas ($600 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Dallas is the more traditional backup running back to Collins, and he had four carries last week. He probably needs an injury to return value, but you never know what’s going to happen in an NFL game.
