For the opening round of the playoffs, DraftKings is offering a six-game slate for Wild Card Weekend (starting on Saturday) featuring every wild card round game, as well as smaller Saturday and Sunday-only slate.

We’ll break down the top plays across the weekend in this article, but with a point to note players who might project well on one of the smaller slates but not stand out in the larger one.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Stud: Jayden Daniels ($7,500) Washington Commanders (+3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (50.5 Total)

While we have Daniels a close second in median and ceiling projection behind Josh Allen ($8,200), I prefer the rookie if spending up at quarterback. That’s mostly due to the difference in salary, but the upside is probably higher for Daniels.

That’s because Commanders-Bucs looks to be the best (DFS) game of the opening round. The 50.5-point total is the highest of all six games, and the three-point spread means both teams should be looking to attack throughout.

Beyond just the game environment, Daniels stands out in his own right. The big appeal is his rushing production. His 891 rushing yards in the regular season ranked second among all QBs, with six touchdowns thrown in for good measure.

The game script should force him to contribute through the air as well. While his overall season numbers through the air weren’t elite, Daniels made continuous improvement throughout the regular season. He had nine passing touchdowns through the first ten games of the season, and 16 over the last six (not counting the meaningless Week 18 matchup he left early).

On top of that, Tampa ranks 28th in points allowed to QBs on the season, by far the worst on any of this weekend’s slates. Daniels is an excellent choice for the Sunday-only or Saturday-Monday slates.

Value: Sam Darnold ($6,500) Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (47.5 Total)

Did Sam Darnold finally regress to his old self in Week 18, or is the Lions’ banged-up defense just that good? That’s a huge question heading into the playoffs after Minnesota was defeated 31-9 by Detroit in Week 18. That loss relegated them to the #5 seed in the NFC bracket despite their 14-3 record — and thus a road game in LA to start the postseason.

Editor’s note: Due to the fires, this game has been moved to Arizona.

This is a rematch from the only non-Lions loss of the season for Minnesota, which, not surprisingly, was also one of Darnold’s weaker games this season. However, on paper, the Rams are the second-best matchup for quarterbacks of the week, so I’m not especially concerned about the earlier meeting.

Given the tight spread and high total, this should be a solid game environment for both offenses. That means a heavy dose of Darnold, with Minnesota checking in at third in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the regular season.

Darnold also makes for some solid stacks, with one of the league’s best wide receivers, two solid secondary options, and strong pass-catchers at tight end and running back. Just getting the ball in the hands of those players typically leads to some easy points for Darnold.

This game is only available on the Saturday-Monday slate, but Darnold leads all QBs in Pts/Sal if playing that one. Another sneaky reason to roster Darnold is the optionality afforded by using players in Monday’s games, especially in cash. By building around this one, you have more chances to swap to contrarian lineups if you fall behind over the weekend.

Quick Hits

Josh Allen ($8,200): I have a hard time justifying the price tag on Allen this week. He’s priced mostly for his median outcome rather than his ceiling. Aside from an absurd two-week stretch where he topped 100 points combined, Allen has just one game over 25 DraftKings points (and that went for 28.42, which probably isn’t enough at his salary). The two big games were a loss and a close win over the Lions — this week, Buffalo is favored by 8.5 over Denver. He’s an extremely safe bet for a score in the low 20s, but unlikely to go much above that.

Lamar Jackson ($8,000): Jackson would be the “stud” pick if playing the two-game Saturday-only slate, with a projection within a point of Daniels and Allen. Like Allen, he’s a big home favorite to open the playoffs. Unlike Allen, he’s topped 30 points in double-digit wins multiple times this season. I still prefer Jackson with some Steelers run-backs, but he’s a solid play either way, especially on the smaller slate.

Justin Herbert ($6,000): Herbert is the best value option in the Saturday-only slate, with his Chargers slight road favorites in Houston. They’ve been fairly pass-heavy for the latter half of the season, which should continue into the playoffs. Herbert’s lack of rushing limits his ceiling a bit, but at just $6,000 in salary, it’s not hard to see him doing enough to win some GPPs. He’s a borderline must for cash games in the Saturday-only slate and a viable option in the six-game slate as well.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud: Saquon Barkley ($8,500) Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (45.5)

Despite sitting out Week 18, Barkley finished the season as the overall RB5 in fantasy scoring (in standard formats) this season, accumulating 1,312 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns. Now, his Giants open the playoffs as moderate road underdogs.

It’s a challenging situation for Barkley, who still justifies his slate-leading price tag this week. He should be fresh, having taken Week 18 off with the Giants’ playoff spot secured. On top of everything mentioned above, quarterback Jalen Hurts ($7,300) has been dealing with a shoulder injury but is expected to play.

That might make the Eagles slightly wary about calling too many rushing plays for Hurts, especially if they’re able to control this game. One of the factors limiting Barkley’s fantasy production this season was the goal-line carries (19) and touchdowns scored by quarterback Daniel Jones (7), which could potentially shift more to Barkley in this game.

This game is on Saturday, so Barkley is available on the Saturday-only slate. That makes him a strong consideration in the Saturday-only slate and a solid option in the full weekend version. He ranks among the top backs in median and ceiling projection.

Value: Bucky Irving ($7,000) Tampa Bay Bucs (-3) vs. Washington Commanders (50.5 Total)

While it’s a bit of a shock to see the price tag on Irving — he didn’t hit even $6,000 until December — it’s well deserved. He took over the lead role in the Tampa offense down the stretch, with at least 15 carries and two receptions in each of the last four weeks.

Irving still surrenders a bit of passing-down work to Rachaad White ($5,000), but that’s less of a concern given the likely game script here. Tampa is a slight home favorite, which means at worst this one should stay reasonably close.

The Commanders are also one of the softest matchups for running backs in the playoffs, ranking 26th in DVOA against the run. Irving leads all running backs in Pts/Sal projection by a wide margin. He’s a near-must for the Sunday-only or six-game slate.

Quick Hits

Derrick Henry ($8,200): Henry is the logical alternative to Barkley if playing the Saturday-only slate, with Ravens-Steelers taking place Saturday night. Baltimore is the heaviest favorite of the week, which typically bodes well for Henry. He’s obviously limited in the passing game, but that shouldn’t be a problem here. The Steelers’ tough pass defense should filter production to the ground, setting this up for a classic heavy workload for the bruising back.

Kyren Williams ($7,400): Williams has seen his workload much lower with all of the Rams’ wide receiver options healthy this season. However, they could scale him back up this week if the game script allows, especially against a Vikings team that just gave up four total touchdowns to Jahmyr Gibbs last week and has the #1 pass defense by DVOA in the league. Like with Sam Darnold, the real appeal to Williams is the optionality though. Rostering him (particularly in the flex spot) gives you a chance to pivot throughout the weekend as needed, which can be huge in cash games.

Aaron Jones ($6,000): There aren’t any especially cheap viable options at running back, but $6,000 for Aaron Jones is certainly a solid value. He’s the cheapest true lead back on the slate, and while he’s somewhat game-script-dependent, his Vikings are favored by a point and a half against the Rams. I’m not exactly rushing to jam him into my lineups, but he’s a reasonable choice on the full weekend slate.

JK Dobbins ($6,200): After a four-week absence, Dobbins has handled 37 carries and caught four passes over the last two games. Jim Harbaugh clearly prefers him as the lead back for the Chargers and will likely lean on him even more heavily in the playoffs. Keep an eye on the news, though, as Dobbins has been limited in practice this week. If he suits up, he’s a solid option on the Saturday-only slate.

James Cook ($6,700): With Buffalo as a solid favorite, this could be a good week for their top running back. Cook has scored six touchdowns over the last four weeks despite playing in less than half of the team’s snaps in each of those games. My guess is that was an attempt to keep him healthy and fresh for a playoff push. There’s no reason to ease up on him now, and our projected ownership suggests he could go somewhat overlooked this week.

Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud: Puka Nacua ($7,600) Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (47.5 Total)

Frustratingly, the top two wide receivers of the weekend play on Monday, making them eligible only for the six-game Sat-Mon slate, while the biggest tournaments are on the smaller slate. Still, there’s plenty of money to be won even on that slate, so they’re worth discussing.

The stronger option of those two (by a nose) is Nacua. He has the best median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections on the slate. He’s seen at least 13 targets in about half of the games he’s been fully available for, and he’s pretty clearly pulled away from Cooper Kupp ($6,400) as the Rams’ #1 option.

Rams-Vikings should be a close game with a high total and is being played in a dome in Los Angeles, with January weather impacting a few of the other contests. On top of that, the Vikings have allowed the most points to opposing WRs – not just on the slate or in the playoffs, but in the entire NFL. They also face more pass attempts per game than any other team.

Outside of his limited eligibility, it’s hard to poke many holes in Nacua this week. I’m playing him wherever I can.

Value: Devonta Smith ($5,700) Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (45.5 Total)

The top three Pts/Sal options of the week all check in at least $7,600, so we’re going with “top value by default” to an extent here with Smith. We obviously can’t spend up at every position, so we’ll need to save salary somewhere.

I personally have mixed feelings about Smith. The Eagles’ targets have condensed heavily between him and AJ Brown ($7,500) over the past few weeks. That’s worked out to a bit over eight targets per contest for Smith over his last four games. Regardless of result, I’ll pretty much always be happy with eight targets at his price tag.

However, some of that was with Kenny Pickett at QB. The other issue is the Packers’ defense is tough against wide receivers, ranking third in points allowed to the position. That’s part of my interest in Barkley this week, since the matchup should somewhat force production to the ground.

Still, we need cheap options somewhere, and you don’t need a ton from Smith at his price tag. For that reason, I’ll have fairly heavy exposure to him.

Quick Hits

Justin Jefferson ($8,100): Jefferson projects just slightly behind Nacua for the top median and ceiling projections at the position. In a perfect world, you’d roster both star receivers on the six-game slate, since they’re the two best options and they heavily correlate with each other. The matchup is better for Nacua, but Jefferson is a solid GPP pivot if you can’t fit them both.

George Pickens ($6,300): Pickens missed one of the Steelers’ games against Baltimore this season, but in the other, he saw a season-high 12 targets, which he turned into an 8/89/0 line. That usage isn’t surprising, since the Ravens faced (by far) the highest opponent PROE of any team this year. We probably need either 100 yards or a touchdown for Pickens to be a GPP winner, but that’s certainly not out of the question. I also have some mild interest in Calvin Austin ($4,200), particularly on the Saturday-only slate.

Nico Collins ($7,800): It’s hard to justify spending up for Collins on slates where Nacua and Jefferson are eligible, but he’s the top median and ceiling option on the Saturday-only slate. Houston lost both of their other starting wide receivers for the year and will need to lean on Collins heavily this week. It’s a tough(ish) matchup with the Chargers, but with the Texans as underdogs, he could see a ton of volume.

Ladd McConkey ($6,800): McConkey has been the main beneficiary of the Chargers’ uptick in pass rate, with seven straight games of at least 14 DraftKings points and two of those going for at least 23. That’s a very strong floor/ceiling combo at his price tag. That makes him a borderline must-play on Saturday and a strong option for the six-game slate. I’m also interested in his teammate Quentin Johnston ($4,800) in the former, though he’s a bit thin for the full slate.

Rashod Bateman ($5,000): The Ravens ruled out top wide receiver Zay Flowers and his 23% target share on Thursday, leaving Bateman as the next man up. He’s second on the team with his 14.4% rate. While the game script should keep the focus on the run, Baltimore will still have to throw at some point here — making Bateman a strong value at $5,000. That’s especially true on the Saturday-only slate.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud: Mark Andrews ($4,700) Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5 Total)

Of course, the real beneficiary of Flowers’ absence might be Andrews. Early in the 2023 season, it looked like Andrews might have given up his spot as the Ravens’ top tight end. However, he’s now cleared salary-based expectations in his last six games, and it looks like Baltimore was just managing his reps early in the season.

The reason to manage a veteran’s workload is, of course, to keep them at full strength for the playoffs, so expect a heavy dose of Andrews this week. Pittsburgh is fairly vulnerable to tight ends (25th in points allowed), and Baltimore is thin at wide receiver, so everything is aligning nicely.

With this game played on Saturday, that also means Andrews is available on two of the three slates this weekend. He’s a solid option and should come at relatively low ownership with much of the field trying to save money at the position.

Isaiah Likely ($3,200) is also a solid pivot with a similar thesis as Andrews. He’s seen a decrease in usage with Andrews taking over recently, but with the extra targets available, there could be enough room for them both to get there. I’m interested in pairing them together to free up salary in the Saturday-only slate — they’ve both scored touchdowns in three of the last five Ravens games.

Value: Tucker Kraft ($3,700) Green Bay Packers (+4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (45.5 Total)

Kraft comes in at second in the Pts/Sal rankings at tight end. The player in first is both more expensive and playing on Monday, though, so Kraft is the better overall option.

Kraft is a fairly standard lower-level starting tight end in terms of overall usage. That means about four or five targets in the typical game, depending on the game script. This factor is working in Kraft’s favor this week, with Green Bay as solid underdogs against the explosive Eagles.

The Packers tend to play run-heavy when possible but will likely be forced to take to the air more than usual this week. That means we should see at least a decent amount of Kraft, though his ceiling remains extremely touchdown-dependent.

He’s a solid option for cash games across either of the larger slates, and I wouldn’t mind rostering him in GPPs on the Sunday-only three-gamer.

Quick Hits

TJ Hockenson ($4,200): Hockenson is the aforementioned Pts/Sal standout who is only eligible on the six-game slate. With Monday’s contest having by far the best game environment around, it’s no surprise to see so many players from the game standing out. Hockenson is yet to score a touchdown this year after returning mid-season but he has a better-than-usual chance against the Rams. They rank 30th in points allowed to tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth ($4,400): Freiermuth had his first 20-point game of the season in Week 18, a close loss to the Bengals. Much of that might have been due to the matchup, with Cincinnati allowing the most points to tight ends in the league. Baltimore is somewhat tougher, ranking 20th in that category, and they limited Freiermuth to 5 catches and 30 yards combined across two games this season. I’m not particularly interested in him myself, but his median projection trails only Andrews and Hockenson.

Zach Ertz ($4,300): Ertz is a sneaky stacking partner for Daniels this week. He has 12 targets and three touchdowns across the last two weeks, which could be a coincidence — but it could also be an Andrews-esque late-season surge for the veteran. I’m not especially interested in Ertz by himself, but pairing him with Daniels should be a slightly contrarian way to build around the rookie quarterback.

GPP Roster Construction

Obviously, the roster construction depends on which slate(s) you’re playing this weekend. The full-week slate is fairly standard — build stacks around a game, mix in a contrarian play or two. Wide receiver is pretty wide open this week, so I’d start there for low-owned plays.

The smaller slates — which have the bigger prize pools — are a bit trickier. They’re both small enough that it’s crucial to focus on limiting “dupes” — duplicate rosters from other players. That means taking some swings on unlikely events, and/or leaving chunks of salary on the table.

One interesting starting point on Saturday is to build around a close game in Steelers-Ravens, which would shift Baltimore more to the air and Pittsburgh more to the ground. On Sunday, I like targeting a Commanders upset, and thus fading Bucky Irving for the Tampa passing game.

Either way, it’s important to focus on the correlation between plays on the smaller slates. Every player you roster necessarily means somebody else has to fall short for your lineup to win. What else is likely to happen in those cases? That’s the logic I’m applying to the smaller slates this week.

Cash Games

As with GPPs, the way to build in cash games this week depends heavily on which slate you’re playing. By far my favorite for cash games is the six-game full slate.

With all six games happening sequentially, that means five different opportunities to swap players in your lineup. The general principle is to switch off of popular players if you fall behind. Conversely, if you get a big early performance from a lesser-owned player, you want to be as chalky as possible later on.

The Monday game provides an excellent opportunity to do so. Sam Darnold will likely be the most-owned quarterback, with Puka Nacua the most-owned wideout. You could swap to Matthew Stafford and Justin Jefferson if you fall behind — or vice versa if you leave $300 in salary open.

Outside of those two, Bucky Irving is the only real “must-play” on the full slate, so there are plenty of reasonable builds. Be sure to think about potential pivots with all of your plays, though, as that’s likely what separates winners and losers this week.