Thanksgiving food may be overrated, but the three-game DFS slate makes it all worthwhile. It’s an interesting strategy challenge, with late swaps playing an especially important role.
If you’re unwilling or unable to late swap, my advice would be to sit this one out — especially in cash games. We’ll talk more about the strategy reasons why later on in the article.
Also worth keeping in mind: lock is at 12:30 p.m. ET, rather than the usual 1:00.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jordan Love ($6,300) Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (47 Total)
It’s a pretty rough slate for quarterbacks on Thanksgiving. We’ve got a pair of backups thrust into starting duty among the six options, limiting our choices.
At the top, the conversation comes down to Jordan Love or Jared Goff ($6,500). Their teams have the two best totals on the slate by a decent margin, with Goff’s Lions four points ahead of Love’s Packers. However, Green Bay is favored by just 3.5 against the Dolphins, while Detroit is a double-digit favorite.
Both teams have heavily negative Pass Rate Over Expectation marks. That makes it tough for quarterbacks to put up solid scores if the game gets out of hand, as both teams will likely lean more heavily on the run. Love has a shot at ending up in a shootout against the Dolphins, giving him a considerably higher ceiling.
It’s not a great matchup for either player though, so it might not be worth spending up. Love is projecting 0.3 points ahead of Goff, but neither are solid Pts/Sal options.
Value: Caleb Williams ($5,300) Chicago Bears (+10) vs. Detroit Lions (48 Total)
On the other side of the coin in Detroit, Caleb Williams and the Bears are big underdogs. That should force them to the air frequently in this game as they chase points against the Lions in a dome.
That’s no guarantee that it will turn into DFS production, of course. Detroit has allowed just two quarterbacks to top 20 DraftKings points this season, Geno Smith and (of all people) Mason Rudolph. Rudolph got there mainly with his legs, and Smith contributed 38 yards rushing as well.
That means the best chance for Williams to be productive here might be on the ground. He’s gone for at least 33 yards rushing in more than half the Bears’ games this season though he’s yet to find the end zone. Still, that gives him a strong floor relative to his price tag.
Not that Williams couldn’t get it done through the air. He threw for 340 yards and two scores against the Vikings’ number-two-ranked pass defense by DVOA last week. Of course, he now faces the only team ahead of Minnesota in that category.
Either way, he’s a solid play at his salary based on volume alone. It would be hard for him to truly fail at his price tag, even in a tough matchup. He leads the position in Pts/Sal by a fairly wide margin.
Quick Hits
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000): The other high-end QB option this week is Tagovailoa, who threw for four touchdowns against the Patriots last week. He probably won’t do that again this week, given a much tougher matchup with the Packers. However, with the weapons around him in Miami, there’s a chance that some of his dump-off passes will turn into big plays. We haven’t seen much of that since his return from a concussion early this season, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Cooper Rush ($4,800): We’ve got the backup QB bowl in Dallas for the afternoon game. Rush has made two starts for the Cowboys since Dak Prescott went down and is surprisingly averaging over 19 DraftKings points in those games. Both of those came against better pass defenses than the Giants, who rank 29th in DVOA. Considering Dallas has both a higher team total and a higher PROE than Chicago, there’s an argument he’s a better play than Williams. My biggest concern with Rush is that Dallas finally decides to give Trey Lance a look after trading for him, but that hasn’t been the case so far. He trails only Williams so far and might be my favorite play at the position.
Tommy Devito ($4,500): The other ugly option on Thanksgiving is DeVito. He’s taking on the Cowboys, who have by far the worst Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to QBs on the slate. DeVito isn’t exactly an NFL-caliber QB, but Dallas isn’t exactly an NFL-caliber defense. Plus, we’re projecting DeVito for the lowest ownership on a slate where it’s entirely possible no quarterback does much of note. At his salary, that might be enough to sneak into the winning lineup.
Offensive Line Matchup Projections:
Each week, I write an article breaking down the line play for the week’s slate from a DFS perspective. Check the linked article for a deeper dive into what the numbers mean. Here’s the data table for the Thanksgiving slate:
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud: Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500) Detroit Lions (-10) vs. Chicago Bears (48.5 Total)
The Lions are huge home favorites against a run-funnel Bears defense and run the ball at a top-three rate in the league. Normally that would make their RB1 a clear smash — except Detroit splits running back work nearly evenly between Gibbs and David Montgomery ($6,500).
With that said, Gibbs has emerged as the slight leader in the room. He’s picked up 15 more opportunities (targets + carries) than Montgomery on the season and turned them into about 250 more total yards. Touchdowns are exactly equal, but Gibbs has been more efficient overall.
Crucially, Montgomery left the Lions’ Week 12 win early with a shoulder injury and was limited in Tuesday’s practice. It’s highly unlikely he misses the game against his former team, but he could have his reps limited here.
If Gibbs were to even see 65-70% of the Lions’ RB workload this week, he’d be an absolute smash. His worst-case scenario is he stays close to his 20 points per game average, but the upside is much higher given the circumstances. As you can see in the table above, Detroit has by far the best run-blocking matchup on the slate. Gibbs should be efficient; it’s just a matter of finding volume.
His 18.67-point median projection is nearly two points clear of any other back Thursday. Gibbs also leads the position in Pts/Sal projection.
Value: Rico Dowdle ($5,500) Dallas Cowboys (-6) vs. New York Giants (37 Total)
Dowdle’s price tag qualifies more as “appropriate” than “too cheap” thanks to his workload. His 20.8% opportunity share ranks 27th in the league, making him a fringe RB1. The problem is Dallas still insists on wasting carries on Ezekiel Elliott, who’s averaging just 3.2 yards per carry to Dowdle’s 4.4.
With the Cowboys favored, they should be in a good spot to feed both backs, though. That’s good news against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in points allowed to the position. They’re the only team on the slate with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to backs this season.
Dowdle has struggled as a fantasy asset due to his inability to find the end zone. He’s rushed for 488 yards without a score this season, while no other player has hit 280 without a score. Part of that is due to the Cowboys giving Elliott more red zone looks — but part of it is bad luck/regression.
If he can run one in this time — or score another receiving touchdown — he’ll easily cover his salary. I don’t have a ton of faith in that happening, but the matchup with the Giants certainly helps. He trails only Gibbs in Pts/Sal projection.
Quick Hits
De’Von Achane ($7,700): Achane is averaging just 12 carries per game this season. However, he’s stayed relevant for fantasy thanks to his passing game involvement. He trails only Alvin Kamara in receptions at running back, and his five receiving touchdowns lead the league at the position. That makes this a good spot for him, considering the Dolphins are slight underdogs against Green Bay. It’s hard to fit him and Gibbs together, but they’re both strong plays.
Josh Jacobs ($7,000): Jacobs is a yardage-and-touchdown back who needs positive game scripts to have big games. He should have one against the Packers this week. Jacobs has scored at least 20 points in the last four Packers wins, so we want to roster him when Green Bay is favored.
Tyrone Tracy ($5,800): Part of me is glad Tracy costs more than Dowdle, as that should limit his ownership a bit. Tracy is a risky play since he was benched due to losing a fumble last week, but the upside is there. He’s averaging over 5.0 yards per carry despite the bad offense he plays for, a figure that should theoretically go up against the Cowboys defense that ranks 29th in points allowed to the position. If rostering Tracy in GPPs, build around scenarios where the Giants keep it close, as he often loses work to Devin Singletary ($4,800) in deeply negative game scripts.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) Detroit Lions (-10) vs. Chicago Bears (48.5 Total)
With the Lions implied for nearly 30 points on Thanksgiving, it’s no surprise to see their top options showing up with the highest projection on the slate. That’s the case at wide receiver, where the Sun God’s 17.1-point median projection leads the position.
St. Brown hasn’t been as strong of a fantasy asset this year, largely because the Lions continue to blow teams out. That’s limited their overall pass rate, and by extension, St. Brown’s targets. He’s cleared double-digit looks in just two games this year — one of which was the Lions’ only loss.
However, he’s also scored in eight of the Lions’ 11 games this year, with his streak snapped last week. He’s fairly likely to pick up another one here, giving him a solid floor. His ceiling is somewhat limited by the return of Sam LaPorta, who is similarly involved in the middle of the field and against zone coverage.
The Bears play zone at a top-ten rate, so St. Brown and LaPorta should score fairly well collectively, but unless that’s tilted heavily to St. Brown, it’s unlikely he truly pays off his slate-high salary. I’ll be avoiding him for the most part, except in lineups built around Chicago keeping up.
Value: Keenan Allen ($5,100) Chicago Bears (+10) vs. Detroit Lions (48 Total)
The two top Pts/Sal options at wide receiver this week are both Bears. Keenan Allen leads the pack, with DJ Moore ($5,600) following behind him. Which makes sense considering the situation.
Detroit has allowed the fourth-most points to wide receivers on the season, since they’re putting opponents in negative game scripts so often. That’s translated better to wide receivers than quarterbacks, since the Lions allow plenty of receptions but very few touchdowns or big plays.
That should benefit Allen, who often serves as a safety net for his rookie quarterback. Allen saw 15 targets last week in the loss to the Vikings, compared to 10 for Rome Odunze ($5,000) and seven for DJ Moore ($5,600).
Detroit also plays man coverage at the highest rate in the league, which surprisingly has helped Allen. Typically, we think of Allen as a zone beater, while younger, more explosive receivers excel against man coverage. However, Allen’s target share has been higher against man coverage this year, with the other two players seeing slight drop-offs.
I’m not sure if that’s all that sticky though, so I’ll have similar exposure to all three players. The floor is higher for Allen, but Odunze and Moore provide a better ceiling. Particularly Odunze, who has more air yards on fewer targets than either of the other two.
Quick Hits
CeeDee Lamb ($7,300): Lamb has 18 catches on 24 targets in the two full games with Rush at quarterback. The problem is they’ve gone for 160 scoreless yards. Still, this is by far the softest defense Dallas has faced since Rush took over. That should lead to more total scoring opportunities for the team in general, as well as greater efficiency for Lamb. I prefer him to St. Brown at the high end when factoring in price, as he’s projected for just 0.3 fewer points.
Tyreek Hill ($6,900): Hill still hasn’t cracked 100 yards or 20 DraftKings points in a game since Week 1, even with Tagovailoa back at quarterback. The Packers are also a fairly tough matchup for wide receivers. With that said, it’s crazy seeing Hill at a sub-$7,000 price tag, and he could theoretically break the slate with a single big catch. I’ll have some exposure, but I’m not exactly rushing to force him into my lineups.
Malik Nabers ($7,100): Nabers posted a 6/64 line on nine targets last week — despite not being targeted in the first half. He was public with his feelings about that. Part of the issue is Tommy DeVito not being an NFL-level quarterback, but the Giants could look to get him involved early and often this one. If you believe the “squeaky wheel” theory, Nabers is in a great spot. Dallas is easier to run on than throw on though, so I won’t be too heavily invested in Nabers.
Packers Receivers: Green Bay ranks 31st in PROE on the season, with four receivers (and a tight end) falling between 10% and 16% target share. To put it another way, they’re cutting a fairly small pie pretty evenly between five players. We’re also forecasting freezing temperatures in Lambeau. Long story short, I’m staying away, even with Romeo Doubs likely to miss with a concussion. If you had to target somebody, I’d go with Christian Watson ($4,900). His aDOT of 18.2 means he could get there on fewer targets than his teammates.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud: Jonnu Smith ($4,300) Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers (47 Total)
Part of the reason Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle ($5,400) have been disappointing lately is due to the production coming from Smith. He has 19 targets and three touchdowns over the past two weeks, more than either of Miami’s top wide receivers.
With Miami trying to get the ball out quickly, he and Achane are solid safety valves for Tagovailoa. Their lower aDOT routes are also likely to be less impacted by the weather in Green Bay, which will be important this week.
Smith is one of just two tight ends on the slate with a double-digit median projection, narrowly edging out Sam LaPorta at a slightly higher salary. The two of them should collect the bulk of the ownership at the position, though we’re projecting a fairly significant discount for LaPorta.
For that reason, I won’t be too heavy on Smith, but I want some exposure.
Value: Sam LaPorta ($4,100) Detroit Lions (-10) vs. Chicago Bears (48.5 Total)
The Lions sophomore is yet to top six targets in a game all season. That’s a problem when he was priced north of $6K on DraftKings — and explains why his salary has come down to $4,100 this week.
The emergence of Jameson Williams as a field stretcher, as well as Detroit not needing to throw much, has limited LaPorta all season. His route tree overlaps heavily with that of St. Brown’s, but in 2023 he occasionally served as a field stretcher — a role now filled by Williams.
With that said, it’s an excellent spot for LaPorta and St. Brown collectively against the zone-heavy Bears defense. St. Brown has been banged up with a knee injury, so more of the targets could go to LaPorta this week.
Plus, it wouldn’t shock me to see Dan Campbell — a former tight end — make a concerted effort to get LaPorta going here. We’ve seen him make a point to get certain players involved throughout the season, and it might be LaPorta’s turn.
He’s my favorite tight end play of the slate — though that’s not saying much given how weak the position is.
Quick Hits
Tucker Kraft ($3,700): As discussed with the Packers wide receivers, Kraft has a similar target share as each of their wideouts but a price tag between $500 and $2,000 cheaper. Add to that, he plays a position where it’s tougher to find points. I’m not sure we need any exposure to the Packers passing attack — but Kraft would be my first look if I wanted some.
Theo Johnson ($2,900): Johnson is my favorite tight end punt this week. He’s caught at least three passes for 35 yards in four straight contests. That doesn’t sound like much, but it was enough to have a positive Plus/Minus score every week at his price tag. If none of the tight ends have a big game this week — which is likely — a 3/40 line from Johnson might win the slate.
GPP Roster Construction
Given the small nature of this slate, the key for GPPs will be building unique lineups. The best plays are fairly obvious heading in, so the field is likely to condense around similar builds.
It’s important to consider the size of the contest you’re playing in as well. I’m willing to go way off the board for something like the $5 Millionaire Maker contest with nearly 600,000 entrants.
For smaller field and single-entry play, sticking closer to the “best plays” is probably fine. I still want a unique piece or two in those contests. My favorite somewhat off-the-board plays are the cheap quarterbacks (DeVito and Rush) as well as their stacking options.
Late swap isn’t as crucial as in cash games. If you miss out on the best score in the early game, no amount of swapping can help you catch up. Still, if you find yourself near the top of a leaderboard, it’s worth considering. I’d rather take a slightly lower-projecting player that gives me a unique lineup than be in a “lineup train” with other players.
I’ve used the RotoGrinders browser extension for years to help with that. It shows you the remaining salary available in your opponent’s lineup and can help you figure out who they’ve rostered.
Cash Games
The key to cash games on slates like this is late swap. Most lineups will head into the afternoon with fairly similar builds. The top Pts/Sal options aren’t too difficult to identify, with some slight variations.
However, being able to react to each game appropriately will be the difference between cashing or not. If you find yourself trailing after either of the first two games, pivoting to lower-owned options keeps you alive while sticking with the chalk buries you.
Due to that, it’s important to build flexibility into your lineups and think about the order of the games. Let’s go through an example.
Say you took a stand on a fairly low-owned player from Bears/Lions. If that player does well, I’d want to have Rico Dowdle as one of my remaining running backs. Dowdle will likely be the most popular back in cash games.
If you’re trailing, pivoting from Dowdle to Tyrone Tracy gives you a better shot since you need to chase points. To find the $200 in salary, maybe you also pivot from Lamb or Nabers to Tyreek Hill — who will also be less popular.
This also makes players in the later games slightly more valuable. I’m not intentionally fading Lions or Bears. With that said, if it’s a toss-up, I’ll opt for the other player, so I have the option to pivot throughout the afternoon.
As always, if you’re doing something crazy like enjoying time with your family and can’t late swap, I’d suggest sitting this one out in cash. There will be other slates.
