NFL Week 8 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals at 8:20 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
This game had the potential to be one of the biggest of the year, but injuries and COVID will ultimately keep this game from reaching its full potential. The Cardinals have moved to 6.5-point favorites, giving them an edge in implied team total.
Kyler Murray has had an excellent start to the year. Not only has he led the Cardinals to an undefeated record, but he’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in six of his first seven games. Overall, he ranks fourth at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, and he ranks seventh in terms of expected fantasy points per Pro Football Focus.
He has a favorable matchup vs. the Packers, who rank just 21st in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. That isn’t terrible, but it undersells how weak their corners are without Jaire Alexander. None of their other corners rank better than 64th at the position, so Murray should be able to pick them apart.
Murray also stands out from a Vegas perspective. He’s historically thrived as a home favorite, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.64 (per the Trends tool). Murray basically checks every box on this slate, so he deserves heavy consideration for one of the premium spots in your lineup.
Everyone knows that Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he’s still got it at nearly 38 years old. His numbers aren’t quite as impressive as last year’s, but he still ranks ninth in adjusted yards per attempt to go along with 15 touchdowns and three picks.
The big question is who will Rodgers throw to on Thursday? The Packers are expected to be without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, so it’s a legit question. That said, losing Adams hasn’t been a death blow for Rodgers’ fantasy stock. In fact, Rodgers has averaged 20.96 DraftKings points in 37 games with Adams since the start of the 2019 season, and that number increases to 27.12 in six games without him. I’m not saying that Rodgers will be better without his top receiver, but the numbers suggest he’s more than capable of getting the job done. He’s someone I’m very interested in, especially if he comes with lower ownership than usual.
One player who should help Rodgers in the passing game this week? Aaron Jones. He’s been significantly more involved in games without Adams since the start of 2019, averaging more than 35.5 additional receiving yards. Overall, he’s averaged 4.83 receptions, 56.17 receiving yards, and 0.67 receiving touchdowns in those contests.
That makes Jones and Rodgers a lot more correlated than they usually are. Building some Packers’ stacks with both players is definitely a viable strategy.
The Cardinals do have one of the best defenses in the league – they rank second in pass defense DVOA and seventh in rush defense – but they have been vulnerable against pass-catching running backs. They rank just 17th in pass defense DVOA vs. the position, so Jones could do some damage in this matchup.
De’Andre Hopkins will likely serve as Murray’s top pass-catcher, but he’s currently questionable with a hamstring injury. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury already said he expects Hopkins to be out there, and he should be able to take advantage of the Packers’ secondary. PFF gives him the largest advantage of the week at the wide receiver position, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.2 on DraftKings.
Hopkins hasn’t commanded the same target share that he did last year, but he remains a workhorse near the goal line. He’s seen nine endzone targets this season, which is the same as the rest of the team combined. Hopkins likely needs a touchdown to pay off his current price tag, but he’s done that in five of seven games this year.
Midrange
James Connor and Chase Edmonds share the load in the Cardinals’ backfield, but Edmonds is the clear preferred option in this duo. He’s seen 33 targets compared to just five for Connor, and he’s also racked up more rushing yards despite fewer carries. Edmonds also outsnapped Connor 49 to 21 last week.
The one thing that Connor does well is punch in touchdowns. He’s received all five of their running back carries from inside the five-yard line, and he’s already scored six rushing touchdowns. That’s definitely a plus for his fantasy profile, but it doesn’t give him much upside at his current salary. He posted a negative Plus/Minus last week on DraftKings despite scoring a touchdown, so he’s a clear fade at his current salary.
The Cardinals also have three pass catchers priced in this range, and it’s tough to separate them. Christian Kirk and A.J. Green have nearly identical marks in target share and air yards share, and they’ve also seen the same number of endzone targets. Our Models give Kirk a minimal edge between the two, but he should command higher ownership. That could make Green the preferred target in tournaments.
Zach Ertz is a new addition to the team, and he made his mark in his debut contest. He finished with five targets for three catches, 66 yards, and a touchdown, and his role with the team should only grow. He played on just 49% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, and that number figures to increase as he gets more acclimated with the offense. The Packers have struggled against tight ends this year, so Ertz has a chance for another quality performance.
Rondale Moore is yet another Cardinals’ pass-catcher, and he’s been quiet recently. He’s had just five catches for 33 yards over the past two weeks, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2. That said, his snap share has ticked up slightly of late, playing at least 52% in each of the past two weeks. He didn’t hit that threshold in any of the first five weeks, so that’s one positive working in his favor. Overall, Moore has some upside, but he’ll also likely be over-owned given his name recognition. People love this guy on Twitter, so I’m sure they’ll be excited to play him this week.
Now we get to the fun part. The Packers clearly have plenty of targets available this week, and they have a trio of players in this price range who should see a bump. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the most intriguing. He’s been out of the lineup since Week 3, but he traveled with the team to Arizona this week. He’s tentatively expected to suit up, and he gobbled up air yards when he was healthy this season. If he can add a few targets to his profile, he has excellent upside at his price tag.
Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb are also in this price range, and they would get a bigger bump if MVS is out. Either way, both players have plenty of appeal. Cobb stands out as an elite value on DraftKings, and he leads all players in our NFL Models in projected Plus/Minus. Tonyan is a bit more touchdown-dependent, but he’s also in play on this slate.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- A.J. Dillon ($1,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): The Cardinals dominated the midrange area, so the Packers unsurprisingly provide the value. Unfortunately, Dillon doesn’t stand out on this slate. He played his lowest snap share of the season last week, and the Packers could lean on Jones heavier than usual with Adams out of the lineup.
- Marcedes Lewis ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): The Packers could choose to employ more two-TE sets sans Adams, which gives Lewis some appeal as a punt play. He’s seen at least two targets in the past three weeks, and he’s a threat for a cheap touchdown.
- Equanimeous St. Brown ($600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): St. Brown has not been particularly involved in the Packers’ passing attack this season, but he could see a bump given their current injury situation.
- Amari Rodgers ($400 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Rodgers has seen a single-digit snap count in every game since Week 1. He doesn’t figure to be a huge factor this week, but that could change if MVS is ruled out.
