Adam Levitan projects ownership for every NFL DFS player each week in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Gauging ownership is important when it comes to tournaments so you can try to gain leverage on the field. You don’t need a team of 1%-owned players to win a tournament, but it’s also unlikely you’ll win a tournament with an abundance of highly-owned players.
The goal of this article is to give a brief rundown of the players we project to be the highest owned heading into the week, along with how they can affect roster construction.
Be sure to check the ownership projections throughout the week, as breaking news can cause these to fluctuate.
Note: Ownership percentages as of Friday morning.
Quarterbacks
As usual, the quarterback position has relatively flat ownership projections. Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff are all projected for 9-16% ownership.
Of this group, Stafford offers the most leverage with his +2.0 Leverage Plus/Minus. He’s the only quarterback with a positive Leverage Plus/Minus of this group on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, however, Watson is projected for 17-20% ownership, while Josh Allen also finds himself in the ix at 9-12%. On that particular site, Wilson offers some leverage with a Leverage Plus/Minus of +1.0. This makes sense since Wilson costs $200 more than Watson on FanDuel and people would rather take a slight discount with Watson, further boosting Watson’s ownership.
Running Backs
As in most weeks, running back ownership tends to dictate roster construction the most. However, a lot of the ownership depends on the injury news we are waiting on. That news may be out by the time this article is published.
If David Johnson (ankle) is ruled out, Chase Edmonds is projected for some of the highest ownership on the slate. He could be a worthwhile GPP fade with a -7.0 Leverage Plus/Minus. He’s not too discounted after his price has been raised, and the Cardinals are 10.5-point underdogs against a stout run defense.
Alvin Kamara (ankle) returned to a limited practice on Thursday, opening the door for a possible return. Although, it’d be surprising to see him play since the Saints are on bye next week. If he’s ruled out again, Latavius Murray will make a run for the highest owned player on the entire slate.
Pictured: New Orleans Saints running back Latavius Murray (28), Photo Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Murray is too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Even at his ownership, I’d still want tons of exposure to him given the Saints are massive home favorites with a 29-point implied team total against an abysmal run defense. You don’t need to be contrarian everywhere in your lineup.
Leonard Fournette will also be in the mix as one of the highest owned running backs, which makes sense since his 28.8 touches per game trails only Christian McCaffrey’s 29.3 over the last four weeks. Fournette is more chalk I would eat given his massive touch share. I’m more prone to go contrarian at receiver and tight end while eating the chalk at running backs.
Chris Carson has a 17-20% ownership projection on DraftKings, which puts him as one of the highest owned running backs on the slate. Again, this is probably warranted since he’s averaging 26.5 touches per game over the last four weeks. With his current ownership projection, Carson still boasts a positive Leverage Plus/Minus.
Most rosters will have some combination of Edmonds, Murray, Fournette, or Carson pending the injury news.
Wide Receivers
The three receivers who project for the highest ownership this week are Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills.
DFS players don’t seem concerned with Thomas’ shadow date with Patrick Peterson as he owns a Sentiment Rating of 100% in our models. On the plus side, Peterson won’t follow Thomas into the slot, where he has run 30% of his routes this season. Given that Thomas won’t offer much leverage in tournaments, you could make a case to fade him in tournaments or be underweight relative to the field.
With Will Fuller (hamstring) expected to be out, it isn’t surprising to see Hopkins and Stills pop in ownership projections, especially against the Raiders. Stills is an excellent source of salary relief as well, and this could be the last time he’s this cheap until Fuller returns. Given their high ownership projection, you could double stack them with Watson if you wanted to somewhat differentiate from DFS players who are deciding between one or the other.
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans wide receiver Kenny Stills (12).
Tyler Lockett is also in the mix to carry some ownership against the Falcons, but I have no issue fading him with his -16.0 Leverage Plus/Minus, especially if Matt Ryan (ankle) is out. This lowers the chance of a back-and-forth game on an offense that would prefer not to pass a lot. Lockett has five or fewer targets in three of his last four games.
There are plenty of other spots to gain leverage in tournaments, which you can see in our Player Models.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, and Hunter Henry lead the way in our ownership projections. But, similar to the quarterback position, none of them are expected to be overly chalky. Waller will likely check in as the highest owned on the slate among tight ends given his involvement in the Raiders offense, and he leads all tight ends with 2.90 yards per route run, per PFF.
If you’re looking to go contrarian at tight end, you could look at Zach Ertz or George Kittle, who have the two highest Plus/Minus Leverage Scores among tight ends.
Defense
The Patriots have the highest ownership projection by far at 17-20% on DraftKings and 21-25% on FanDuel. I typically don’t up for defense, but it’s hard to argue against a defense that ranks second in sacks per game and third in pressure rate.
However, they won’t offer much leverage in tournaments. Fading a defense likely won’t destroy your week unless they have a true ceiling game.
Pictured above: Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette (27)
Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports.
