Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Justin Fields ($6,600) + DJ Moore ($5,600) + Courtland Sutton ($5,300)
Fields has been a disappointment this season, scoring under 20 DraftKings points in each of his first three starts, but this Sunday’s matchup with the Broncos is exactly what the doctor ordered. By wide margins, Denver is the lowest-graded defense on PFF, and they are giving up the most yards per pass in the NFL this season (9.1). The Bears rank second only to the Broncos in yards per pass allowed (8.7), and this game should live up to its 46-point total, which is the fourth-highest total on the slate, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Despite his poor fantasy numbers this season, Fields’ dual threat workload has remained encouraging, with him ranking third in rushes per game (8) and tied for first in red zone rushes (6) among quarterbacks. Fields is producing a terrific 27.2 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 45 points over the last two seasons – via the Trends tool – and should redeem himself with a strong fantasy performance in this dream spot against Denver.
Fields is slated to be only around 3% owned on DraftKings this week, according to the BLITZ projections, and so is his No.1 receiver in Moore. After oddly being under-utilized in Week 1, the receiver has led Chicago with a 27.1% target share the last two weeks, including two red zone targets.
Furthermore, Moore has garnered six targets over 20 yards in his last two games, which ranks third in the league during this time. Moore is amassing 17.3 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 occasions. He has competed in a total of 45 points or more via the Trends tool and is vastly underpriced for his upside.
As a bring-back option on the other end of Fields to Moore stacks, Sutton is without a doubt the best choice. The wideout is leading the Broncos with a 24.2% target share this season, including four red zone targets and two targets north of 20 yards. As noted above, Chicago is surrendering the second most yards per pass (8.7), and Sutton should effortlessly beat his modest salary in this juicy spot.
The 27-year-old is also slated to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings according to the BLITZ projections, making this three-player game stack of Fields, Moore, and Sutton an uber-contrarian strategy for GPPs that could really pay off.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Zack Moss ($6,000)
Since making his season debut in Week 2, Moss has been a true workhorse back for the Colts. While logging a whopping 98.3% of the snaps, the 25-year-old has handled 24 carries per game over the last two weeks, including five red zone rushes. Impressively, Moss’ 48 total carries over the last two weeks is tied with Tony Pollard for the most in the league during this time. On top of his heavy role as a rusher, Moss has seen seven targets – including three red zone targets – while running a route on 60% of his team’s dropbacks. Overall, Moss ranks third among running backs with 23.1 DraftKings PPG this season but is the 12th most expensive back on DraftKings this week.
In addition to being far too cheap for his massive workload, Moss meets a Rams’ defense this weekend that is the fourth worst-graded unit on PFF. The Colts carry an implied team total of 24 points in this spot – their highest of the season – and this contest’s total is the third-highest on the slate (46.5 points). To put the icing on the cake, Indianapolis is a 1.5-point home favorite, which is great news for Moss as the team’s featured back.
The Utah product should see a minimum of 20 touches this Sunday and is a -110 favorite to score a touchdown on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
With the BLITZ projections forecasting him for low ownership on DraftKings, Moss needs to be one of your core GPPs plays this weekend.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Tank Dell ($4,600)
While Dell’s price tag has increased, it still doesn’t reflect his current role, and with the BLITZ projections slating him for modest ownership on DraftKings, the rookie is an outstanding target. Ever since the Texans placed Noah Brown (groin) on IR after Week 1, Dell has been the club’s top wideout over the last two weeks, seeing a target on a team-best 24% of his routes while running a route on 83% of his team’s dropbacks. Specifically, Dell has led Houston with five red zone targets and four targets greater than 20 yards during this span.
The 23-year-old has topped 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts and is a real threat to extend this streak to three in a row this Sunday against the Steelers. While Pittsburgh has been a solid defense as a whole this season, they have been susceptible to receivers, allowing the fifth-most yards (634), sixth-most catches (50), and seventh-most touchdowns to the position (4).
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Dawson Knox ($3,100)
With tight end lacking appealing options, punting with Knox in the best game environment of the week has a ton of merit. The Bills will be hosting the Dolphins this Sunday, and this game presents the highest total on the slate (54 points) by nearly six points. Plus, Buffalo’s implied team total is the second largest on the board (28.75 points). So far this season, Knox has seen a target on 13% of his routes while running a route on 70% of his team’s dropbacks. Most importantly, the tight end has seen been heavily utilized in scoring territory with four red zone targets, which is tied with Stefon Diggs for the most on the Bills this season.
Knox has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in five of the last six games that the Bills have carried an implied team total of at least 25 points via the Trends Tool and is only expected to be around 3% owned on DraftKings according to the BLITZ projections.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.