We have an excellent 11-game main slate on tap for Week 7 that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece will highlight the top NFL DFS players at each position in our FantasyLabs Player Models in terms of their projected ceiling from our award-winning Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
(Do people even read intros?)
Let’s dive in.
Top Model Quarterback Ceiling Projections
Jared Goff ($6,200 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel)
The thought of playing Goff after he just threw for 78 yards makes me physically ill. That said, this seems like the perfect time to target him in tournaments. Goff is coming off a game against an elite 49ers defense, and the Falcons are, well, not that.
His struggles under pressure are well documented, and his offensive line isn’t nearly the same as it once was. But Goff has one of the best receiving trios in the entire league, and if his offensive line can give him some more time to throw, he should be able to capitalize against a defense that doesn’t get after the quarterback.
Overall, the Falcons rank just 22nd in pressure and 32nd in sack rate. They’re the only team in the entire league that’s averaging fewer than one sack per game, per Sports Info Solutions. Goff’s Leverage Plus/Minus in our models leads all quarterbacks by a substantial amount.
Russell Wilson ($6,600 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel)
Wilson boasts a top-two ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 7. It should also be noted that any time I roster Wilson or recommend him, he has a floor game… Anyway, the Ravens defense hasn’t been great this year, allowing 6.3 yards per play, the third-highest mark in the league.
The addition of CB Marcus Peters could help things, but it wouldn’t deter me from targeting Wilson in this spot. Wilson has been outstanding this season, averaging 9.0 yards per attempt with a 132.3 Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR), per Sports Info Solutions.
Further, Wilson is not afraid to air it out. Overall, he ranks 17th in pass attempts this season but fourth in Air Yards. He’s a strong play in all formats.
Top Model RB Ceiling Projections
Saquon Barkley ($8,900 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel)
Barkley has been practicing in full this week, suggesting he should be ready to go against the Cardinals. With the full practices, it’s no surprise that he leads running backs in our models with his ceiling projection.
Assuming he gets a full workload, the spot doesn’t get much better against a defense that has struggled to slow down the run all year, ranking 25th in rush DVOA and allowing 4.66 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per play. Additionally, the Giants are expected to play well in this spot, as they’re sporting a 26.75 implied team total, the third-highest mark on the main slate.
Not too much needs to be said about Barkley. You know what you’re getting with him.
Devonta Freeman ($5,400 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel)
Freeman has the sixth-highest ceiling projection in our models, but he’s priced as the No. 18 running back on DraftKings.
While Ito Smith is still around, Freeman is still averaging 64% of the snaps and quietly seeing 17 touches per game, compared to just 5.3 for Smith. Freeman represents 66% of the market share of carries for the Falcons, although it is slightly concerning that Ito has out-carried Freeman 5-2 from inside the 10-yard line.
That said, Freeman is still worth a look in tournaments as he’s coming off a 22-touch game and has seen four or more targets in all but one game.
Top Model WR Ceiling Projections
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel)
Even though Hopkins scored 16.5 DraftKings points last week, it still felt disappointing. Hopkins hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, so this seems like the perfect spot for progression to hit, as he’s set to take on a Colts defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA.
More importantly, Hopkins still leads the Texans with 28% of their target share and is trailing just Will Fuller in Air Yards (30% to 34%). Additionally, the Colts could be thin in the secondary with CBs Pierre Desir (hamstring) and Kenny Moore (knee) potentially out.
Hopkins boasts a Leverage Plus/Minus of +2.0 because of Julio Jones, who is expected to soak up most of the ownership in this price range.
D.K. Metcalf ($4,800 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel)
Metcalf is your prototypical GPP receiver: He sees low-percentage throws with his 15.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT), and he leads the team with 27% of their Air Yards.
Those low-percentage throws make him unreliable for cash games but a perfect option for GPPs, as all he needs is just that one big play to go for a touchdown. And the loss of Will Dissly (14% target share) could also free up some targets for him.
Metcalf is sporting the 13th-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings, but he’s priced as the WR27 this week. It’s an intriguing spot for him against a burnable Ravens secondary.
Top Model TE Ceiling Projections
George Kittle ($6,700 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel)
Kittle leads our ceiling projections by nearly five points in our models. Kittle’s usage is elite: He leads all tight ends in Air Yards (28%) and trails only Darren Waller in target share (26% vs. 25%).
He could be the perfect leverage option, as he’s boasting a Leverage Plus/Minus of +5.0. I wouldn’t expect his ownership to get too high in tournaments while he still has this groin issue and since this game against the Redskins is expected to be a blowout.
Dawson Knox ($3,300 DraftKings; $4,800 FanDuel)
If you want to completely punt the position, look no further than Knox. I wouldn’t go too crazy on Knox give his incredibly low floor, but I like him as a one-off play in three-entry max tournaments.
His 10% target share is nothing to write home about, but he’s seen four or more targets in three of his last four games. More importantly for tight ends, he’s running a ton of pass routes. Overall, Knox has run a route on 67% of his snaps this season, and if John Brown (groin) is limited in any way, that should have some benefit to Knox.
Top Model D/ST Ceiling Projections
Buffalo Bills ($4,300 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel)
The Bills are the top-projected defense in our models by far against a Dolphins team implied for just 12 points. The Bills’ pass rush isn’t elite, but the Dolphins have struggled to protect their quarterbacks this season, as they rank dead last in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.
Overall, Josh Rosen has been sacked on 31% of his dropbacks this season when pressured, and Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t been much better, getting sacked on 20% of his dropbacks when he sees pressure, per PFF.
The Bills should have plenty of sack opportunities in this spot.
San Francisco 49ers ($4,100 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel)
The 49ers deserve a strong look in tournaments. The Redskins’ offensive line ranks eighth in PFF’s pass-blocking grades, while the 49ers rank second in overall defense and third in pass rushing.
Given the Redskins are 10-point underdogs, the 49ers should have plenty of chances for sacks and interceptions if Case Keenum is forced to continually drop back while in catch-up mode.
Pictured above: DK Metcalf
Credit: USA Today Sports
