We have an excellent 13-game main slate on tap for Week 15 that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece will highlight the top NFL DFS players at each position in our FantasyLabs Player Models in terms of their projected ceiling from our award-winning Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Let’s dive in.
Top Model Quarterback Ceiling Projections
Russell Wilson ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel)
Wilson sits atop our ceiling projections on both sites this week for his matchup against the Panthers. It’s a good spot as the Seahawks are implied for the third-highest total on the main slate at 27.25 points. Wilson has been incredibly efficient this season, averaging 0.57 fantasy points per dropback, the fourth-best mark in the league.
The Panthers have been strong against the pass this season, but Seattle has been great through the air, ranking first in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA. He’s harder to fit in on DraftKings, where he’s the second-most expensive quarterback, but that’s where he offers the most leverage in tournaments, boasting a +7.0 Leverage Plus/Minus.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,100 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel)
Garoppolo is more of a play on DraftKings considering he has the third-highest ceiling projection, but he’s priced as the No. 12 quarterback on that site. On FanDuel, he’s the most expensive quarterback.
The 49ers lead the slate with an implied total of 29.75 points, which correlates strongly to quarterback fantasy points. The combination of the massive spread (-11.5) and the 49ers’ offensive explosion last week will likely depress his ownership. The threat of a blowout should also play a role in that lower ownership.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game potentially be closer than the spread suggests. San Francisco has multiple injuries on defense, some of which happened last week. David Jones (ankle) was placed on injured reserve, Richard Sherman (hamstring) will be out, and Dee Ford (quad/hamstring), Jaquiski Tartt (ribs), Julian Taylor (knee) and K’Wuan Williams (concussion) have all missed practice this week. Most of them seem likely to sit.
I wouldn’t go crazy with ownership on him, but since he’s projected for such low ownership, it won’t be hard to overweight yourself relative to the field.
Top Model RB Ceiling Projections
Christian McCaffrey ($10,000 DraftKings; $10,400 FanDuel)
CMC’s price has decreased for the second week in a row after he’s failed to score touchdowns the last two weeks. He still offers the best floor/ceiling combination of any player with his 25.5 touches per game.
There really isn’t much that needs to be said about CMC. Rostering just comes down to whether or not you can afford him. With all the injuries last week, it’s not difficult to squeeze him in.
Leonard Fournette ($7,600 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel)
With Chris Carson and Saquon Barkley sitting in a similar price range, Fournette will likely go somewhat overlooked in this spot. Fournette currently boasts the fourth-highest ceiling projection on both sites, but he’s currently offering the most leverage on DraftKings with his +2.0 Leverage Plus/Minus.
With D.J. Chark expected to be out, the Jags will be missing 23% target share from their offense. Fournette is currently third on the team behind Chark and Westbrook in target share, and since the Jags are 6.5-point underdogs, a scenario where he’s getting some more dump-offs seems like a likely scenario.
Aside from the target share, Fournette’s 22.3 touches per game trails only CMC this season. A matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 27th in rush DVOA seems like a solid spot to target him, especially with his built-in target floor.
Top Model WR Ceiling Projections
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel)
Hopkins leads our ceiling projections against the pass-funnel Titans defense that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA and fifth in rush DVOA. If Will Fuller (hamstring) is out again, this further solidifies his ceiling since he’s averaging 20.61 fantasy points and 11.15 targets per game with Fuller out of the lineup since 2018, per the RotoViz game splits app.
Hopkins is an excellent play in all formats, though I’d expect him to be one of the highest owned receivers in tournaments among the top-priced receivers.
D.J. Moore ($6,600 DraftKings; $6,900 FanDuel)
Moore has a top-seven ceiling projection on both sites, but he’s priced as the No. 12 and No. 17 receiver on DraftKings and FanDuel against a burnable Seattle secondary that could struggle to generate pressure with Jadeveon Clowney (core/illness) missing practice.
Outside of CMC, Moore has been the most bankable fantasy asset on this team, soaking up 31% of their Air Yards, along with a team-high 24% target share and 0.58 Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). Moore currently has six-straight games with at least 70 receiving yards and the Panthers should be in a pass-heavy game script since they’re six-point dogs to Seattle.
Top Model TE Ceiling Projections
Travis Kelce ($6,500 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel)
Kelce remains one of the most consistent tight ends in the league with his steady volume. He’s seen at least eight targets in all but two games and is averaging a steady 8.4 targets per game through 13 games.
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87).
Overall, Kelce’s 0.51 WOPR is the fourth-highest mark in the league, but his 15.6 fantasy points per game is the second-highest mark among tight ends. And since people prefer to pay down at tight end, Kelce boasts a top-four Leverage Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
George Kittle ($6,200 DraftKings; $7,200 FanDuel)
If you’re going to use Garoppolo in tournaments, Kittle makes the most sense to stack him with since he leads the 49ers with 23% target share over the last six weeks, along with a 20% red-zone target share.
Kittle owns a 0.54 WOPR, which is a league-best at the position, tied with Mark Andrews. I wouldn’t expect Kittle’s ownership to be too high in GPPs since he’s $500 above Zach Ertz on FanDuel and $200 more on DraftKings.
Top Model D/ST Ceiling Projections
San Francisco 49ers ($3,800 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel)
The 49ers lead our ceiling projections and since people hate paying for defenses, they also have a +4.0 Leverage Plus/Minus on DraftKings where they have just a 5-8% ownership projection. That said, I’d monitor their injury report leading up to lock since they have a number of injuries on the defensive front. If a lot of them are ruled out, I wouldn’t over-expose yourself to this defense at a high price tag.
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,500 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel)
The Chiefs are my favorite defensive play on the slate since they’re 10-point favorites at Arrowhead, which should set up plenty of sack opportunities for this defense. They rank 12th in pressure rate this season, which is nothing to write home about, but they do rank eighth in adjusted sack rate, while the Broncos offensive line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate.
Pictured above: George Kittle
Credit: USA Today Sports
