We have an excellent 13-game main slate on tap for Week 14 that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece will highlight the top NFL DFS players at each position in our FantasyLabs Player Models in terms of their projected ceiling from our award-winning Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Let’s dive in.
Top Model Quarterback Ceiling Projections
Deshaun Watson ($6,500 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel)
It’s been a while since Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been in this spot, but Watson is more than deserving of having the top ceiling projection on this slate. The matchup doesn’t stand out against the Broncos, but it does soften up if Von Miller (knee) doesn’t suit up, taking away one of their pass rushers.
Watson has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks this season, averaging 0.59 fantasy points per dropback, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. The adding rushing benefit raises both his floor and ceiling, as he’s already scored five rushing touchdowns this season, trailing only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
He’ll also be in an excellent scoring environment since he’ll be in a dome at home with a 25.5-point implied team total. Overall, Watson is a great value, leading all quarterbacks in our models with a +4.25 Projected Plus/Minus and 3.5 pts/sal. Given the lack of appealing quarterback options on this slate, there’s a strong chance Watson makes my cash game team if I decide not to pay down.
Matt Ryan ($6,600 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel)
Ryan may be a contrarian option after he burned people a few weeks ago and I’m sure people will continuously mention how Carolina is a run funnel, ranking seventh in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA and 32nd in rush DVOA.
But I love him as a tournament play in this spot since he’s sporting the third-highest ceiling projection in our models. He’s one of six quarterbacks with a positive Leverage Plus/Minus, along with a modest 5-8% Ownership Projection.
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Ryan
It’s a solid spot being at home with an implied team total of 25, and he may be getting back two of his best weapons in Julio Jones (shoulder) and Austin Hooper (knee). Hooper had been one of his best touchdown threats before going down with an MCL injury.
Per the RotoViz game splits app, Ryan has averaged 24.79 fantasy points per game with Hooper this season, compared to 18.87 without. The main difference has been touchdowns, averaging 2.12 touchdown passes with him, compared to just one when he’s out.
If Hooper and/or Julio are ultimately ruled out, that would put a damper on how I view Ryan this week.
Top Model RB Ceiling Projections
Christian McCaffrey ($10,300 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel)
Per usual, CMC tops the ceiling by nearly five-to-six points in our models. He finally had a floor game last week, scoring “just” 17.2 DraftKings points against the Redskins. There isn’t too much that needs to be said about him at this point.
He leads the league with 25.8 touches per game and dominates the Panthers in red-zone usage, making up 57% of their red-zone share of opportunities and 85.5% of the red-zone carries.
Melvin Gordon ($6,400 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel)
Gordon has quietly averaged 20.7 touches per game over the last four weeks in this offense, and now he draws one of the best matchups on the board against a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in rush DVOA.
People have been hesitant to roster Gordon in this timeshare with his peak ownership on a main slate hitting just 6.5%. Although, we do have him projected for 9-12% this week. If Gordon sees comparable volume again, he should be in an excellent spot against a defense allowing 5.1 yards per attempt.
Top Model WR Ceiling Projections
Michael Thomas ($8,300 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel)
Week 14 is likely the best leverage spot we’ll get with Thomas against a 49ers defense that ranks first in pass DVOA. But is it Thomas who has a tough matchup, or is it the 49ers who have a tough matchup against Thomas?
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).
He’s my favorite leverage play four tournaments since he’s seeing an absurd 31% target share with an 83% catch rate. His usage is just absurd and the Saints rely on him more than any other player with his target share nearly 10% higher than anyone else on the team.
Thomas boasts a top-10 Leverage Plus/Minus on both sites.
Curtis Samuel ($4,900 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel)
Rostering Samuel has not worked out for me this season, but I like the price tag and spot for him this week. The Panthers have a concentrated target share with D.J. Moore leading the way with 27% target share, followed by CMC (22%) and Samuel at 20%.
The absence of Greg Olsen (concussion) will also free up 16.5% target share, which should open up a few more targets for him in this offense. Samuel is also utilized a fair amount in the red zone, sporting a 23.5% target share from inside the 20.
Overall, Samuel boasts the third-highest Leverage Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Top Model TE Ceiling Projections
Travis Kelce ($6,200 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel)
Kelce narrowly leads tight ends in ceiling projections despite the tough matchup against the Patriots. There’s an obvious risk in rostering Kelce as the Patriots have been stingy against tight ends, but he has the most bankable volume of any tight end in the game.
He leads the Chiefs with 23% target share and averages 8.3 targets per game, which leads Tyreek Hill by over a full target per game. Given Kelce is only projected for 5-8% ownership, it won’t be difficult to be overweight on him relative to the field.
Kelce boasts a top-four Leverage Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hunter Henry ($5,100 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel)
I want to use Henry in cash games, but with tight salaries on DraftKings, I may not be able to make it work. However, he’s one of my favorite tight ends this week.
He’s in an excellent bounce-back spot against a Jaguars zone defense that’s allowed a 71% completion rate to tight ends, the sixth-highest mark in the league, per Sports Info Solutions. Henry has been solid for the Chargers, sporting a 21% overall target share, including a 21% target share inside the red zone.
He makes a lot of sense with a slate-best Projected Plus/Minus and pts/sal on DraftKings, along with a top-four Leverage Plus/Minus on both sites.
Top Model D/ST Ceiling Projections
Minnesota Vikings ($3,800 DraftKings; $4,800 FanDuel)
The Vikings have an abysmal secondary, but they’re 13-point home favorites, which can set up for more sack and turnover opportunities. While they lack in pass coverage, they do rank seventh in pressure rate (Sports Info Solution) over the last six weeks, and they rank 11th in adjusted sack rate this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,500 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel)
I never pay up for defense in cash games, but the Steelers are a solid pay-up option in GPPs this week with the mismatch between their defensive line and the Cardinals’ offensive line.
Over the past six weeks, the Steelers rank first in pressure rate (41%), fourth in sack rate and fifth in sacks per game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offensive line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate. That about sums it up.
Pictured above: Melvin Gordon
Credit: USA Today Sports
