We have an excellent 11-game main slate on tap for Week 12 that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece will highlight the top NFL DFS players at each position in our FantasyLabs Player Models in terms of their projected ceiling from our award-winning Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
(Do people even read intros?)
Let’s dive in.
Top Model Quarterback Ceiling Projections
Matt Ryan ($6,800 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel)
Ryan leads our ceiling projections as he draws the dream matchup against a Buccaneers defense that is one of the biggest funnels in the league, ranking 30th in pass DVOA and first in rush DVOA. Ryan was solid last week throwing for 311-1 on the road against Carolina, now he gets the benefit of stepping back onto his home field in a high-scoring domed environment.
There isn’t that much that needs to be said about Ryan here with the Falcons implied for 27.5 points at home against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. He should have no issue moving the ball with the weapons he has at his disposal.
He’s an excellent play in all formats.
Baker Mayfield ($5,900 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel)
Mayfield has the fourth-highest ceiling projection in our models, but he’s priced as the No. 9 quarterback on DraftKings.
He draws one of the best matchups on the board against a Miami defense that ranks 32nd in defensive DVOA, and they’re allowing 6.1 yards per play this year, which is the second-highest mark in the league.
Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield
Mayfield should have all the time in the world to throw from a clean pocket since the Dolphins rank 32nd in pressure rate, sack rate and sacks per game (per Sports Info Solutions). Overall, the Browns are tied with the Saints, boasting a slate-high 27.75 implied team total, which we all know typically correlates well with quarterback success.
He’s a solid cash game play as well if you don’t have the extra salary to get up to Ryan.
Top Model RB Ceiling Projections
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 DraftKings; $10,500 FanDuel)
As usual, CMC checks in with the highest ceiling projection in our models He will draw a matchup against a stout Saints run defense, so it’ll be interesting to see whether his volume (25.8 touches per game) outweighs the difficult spot on the road.
Even if he can’t get it done on the ground, he’ll still get plenty of looks in the passing game, ranking second on the team with 20% target share. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him garner lower ownership than he typically has had these last few weeks since there aren’t many standout value plays at the time of writing.
Le’Veon Bell ($6,400 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel)
Bell owns the fifth-highest ceiling projection in our models on DraftKings, but he’s priced as the No. 11 running back. He’s been rather disappointing this season, hitting salary-based expectations just 44% of the time so far, but this is one of the best spots he’s been in all season: at home against the Raiders.
The Raiders rank 22nd in rush DVOA, but more importantly, the volume has still been there for Bell, averaging 20.8 touches per game, which ranks seventh in the league. If he can’t take advantage of the Raiders in this spot, then I’m not sure when else we’d feel comfortable starting him. At the time of writing, his +1.0 Leverage Plus/Minus is a top-eight mark.
Top Model WR Ceiling Projections
Michael Thomas ($9,300 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel)
Unsurprisingly, Thomas owns the highest ceiling projection for Week 12. I’ll keep this brief since we all know what we get with him.
He’s been dominant this season, hauling in nine or more catches in seven games. Thomas leads the Saints with 38% of their Air Yards, 31% target share, along with an elite 0.73 Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR).
The Panthers have been stronger vs. the pass than the run this year, but matchups don’t matter for a player of Thomas’ caliber.
Chris Godwin ($7,200 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel)
Among the receivers who featured in these high-total games, Godwin is one of the few with a positive Leverage Plus/Minus score. He’s been relatively quiet of late, but the matchup against the Falcons could present a nice bounce-back spot for him.
Per Sports Info Solutions, the Falcons have surrendered 131.8 yards per game and a 72.85% completion rate to the slot this season. Those marks rank 24th and 27th, respectively. Godwin’s 22% target share is slightly behind Evans’ 24% target share, so the volume is still there, he just hasn’t converted any of the volume to big games over the last few weeks.
Top Model TE Ceiling Projections
Zach Ertz ($6,000 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel)
It’s an ugly week at tight end which makes Ertz that much more appealing with his slate-best ceiling projection. The Eagles have a solid 25-point implied team total against the Seahawks, and Nelson Agholor (knee) still isn’t practicing this week, which may open up more target share.
Ertz already leads Philly with 25% target share while ranking second in Air Yards share (24%) and boasting the second-best WOPR on the team.
Mike Gesicki ($3,400 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel)
Gesicki is an intriguing low-owned punt option in Week 12. The hype has cooled on him after he tanked with around 21% ownership a few weeks ago, but the volume has been incredibly steady for him of late.
Pictured: Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki (88), Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Over the last three weeks, he’s seen six targets in every game, but more importantly, he’s running a lot of pass routes. Last week he ran 52 pass routes on 59 snaps against the Bills. And in that three-week span, Gesicki has run a route on 82% of snaps.
One of these weeks, he’s going to pop.
Top Model D/ST Ceiling Projections
Cleveland Browns ($3,800 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel)
The Browns lead our ceiling projections against the Dolphins, which isn’t too surprising with their exceptional 3.1 sack projection. Additionally, the Browns are 11-point home favorites, which typically bodes well for fantasy defense because it creates more sack and turnover opportunities.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,00 DraftKings; $5,00 FanDuel)
The Steelers are an excellent fantasy defense because they’ve been elite at generating pressure this year, and that’s all there is to it. Per Sports Info Solutions, they rank sixth in pressure rate, fourth in sacks per game and fifth in sack rate.
Pictured above: Chris Godwin
Credit: USA Today Sports
