We have an excellent 15-game main slate on tap for Week 17 that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece will highlight the top NFL DFS players at each position in our FantasyLabs Player Models in terms of their projected ceiling from our award-winning Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Let’s dive in.
Top Model Quarterback Ceiling Projections
Drew Brees ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel)
With Lamar Jackson riding the pine this weekend, Brees slides in as the quarterback with the highest ceiling projection in our models.
The key to breaking down Week 17 involves paying attention to the news and motivation surrounding teams. The Saints should have motivation in this spot as they can get a first-round bye if they win, along with a Packers loss and both teams play at 1:00 p.m. ET.
As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, implied team totals correlate well with quarterback scoring, and the Saints’ 29.75 implied team total trails only the Patriots this week. Normally, people avoid Brees on the road which tends to depress his ownership, making him an even better play in tournaments. Overall, he’s one of the better leverage plays among quarterbacks, boasting a top-six Leverage Plus/Minus for Sunday.
However, it’s worth noting that he’s been dealing with some knee inflammation, though he practiced in full on Thursday, and Michael Thomas has been limited in practice with a hand injury. So, if the Packers are blowing out the Lions, there can be some risk of the Saints pulling their starters early.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,800 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel)
This seems like the perfect spot to target Tannehill. He’s been one of the most efficient quarterbacks this season, averaging 0.69 fantasy points per dropback (PFF), trailing only Jackson. Not only do the Texans struggle in pass defense, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA, but they might have nothing to play for.
The Texans play at 4:25 p.m. ET and if the Chiefs beat the Chargers at 1:00 p.m. ET, the Texans will nothing to play for because they won’t be able to improve their seeding. Bill O’Brien says he’ll play his starters no matter what happens, but their defense is a trash heap either way. So Tannehill either gets to play an already bad Texans defense or possibly a bad Texans defense that is resting some starters.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17).
Top Model RB Ceiling Projections
Christian McCaffrey ($10,000 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel)
There really isn’t much that needs to be said about CMC. While the Panthers have nothing to play for, they have been very vocal this week about wanting to get CMC some NFL records on Sunday.
There’s no way of knowing how much he plays, but it sounds like he’ll be in there the whole game as he’s 67 receiving yards away from going 1,000/1,000 and 215 scrimmage yards away from beating Chris Johnson’s single-season record.
I’ll be looking for ways to get CMC in for all formats this week.
Aaron Jones ($8,200 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel)
Jones’ price has been juiced up this week, but he’s one of my favorite plays on the board if Jamaal Williams (shoulder) is ruled out. Given Williams hasn’t practiced on Wednesday or Thursday, that seems highly possible at the time of writing.
The Packers can improve their playoff seeding if they win this game and with Williams making an early exit in Week 16, Jones saw 25 touches against the Vikings. If he sees a similar workload against the Lions, he could have one of the higher ceilings on the slate against a poor Lions defense.
Additionally, the Packers are 12.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 27.75 points, which should set up a favorable game script for him. Even so, Jones is effective in the passing game if they were to somehow fall behind.
Targeting Jones if Williams is out on a highly-motivated Packers team seems like the perfect storm of scenarios. Even if Williams is in, I still like Jones, but it does take away some of the luster.
Top Model WR Ceiling Projections
Michael Thomas ($9,900 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel)
At the time of writing, Thomas leads our ceiling projections among all receivers. He’s been one of the best plays all season, leading the league with a 0.76 Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) and leading the Saints with 40% of Air Yards and 32% target share.
That said, it’s worth paying attention to news on the Saints’ plans and Thomas as the week progresses. Thomas has been limited in practice this week and the Saints’ motivation could be suspect if the Packers beat the Lions. Granted, they both play 1:00 p.m. ET, so it’s still likely the Saints proceed as they normally would.
John Ross ($4,500 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel)
Ross finally saw his role change in Week 16, playing 79% of the snaps against the Dolphins and seeing a whopping 13 targets. Granted, some of that is inflated since the Bengals ran 90 plays in this shootout against the Dolphins.
Still, if he continues to see the majority of the snaps, this is the perfect spot to target his ceiling since he has the 14th-highest ceiling projection in our models, but he’s priced as the No. 48 WR on DraftKings. Ross is one of the best values on the slate, sporting a top-three Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
Top Model TE Ceiling Projections
Travis Kelce ($7,000 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel)
The Chiefs should be motivated to play their starters in this game, which makes Kelce even more enticing. Kelce has been awesome this season, averaging 17.06 DraftKings points per game while leading the Chiefs with 24% target share and trailing only Tyreek Hill in Air Yards.
Although it should be noted there could be a chance the Chiefs rest some starters depending on how they value the No. 3 vs. No. 4 playoff seed. If the Patriots beat the Dolphins, Kansas City won’t get a first-round bye. But, if Kansas City loses and the Texans win, Houston moves to the 4-seed. Unless other news breaks, I plan on targeting this game as I normally would.
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87).
Kaden Smith ($3,700 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel)
If you’re looking for some salary relief for your tournament teams, Smith is an intriguing target.
Smith saw eight targets from Daniel Jones last week, putting up a 6-35-2 line, and I actually think this is a spot the Giants could put up some points on Philly in an attempt to play spoiler. The Giants are implied for 20 points and are just 4.5-point dogs at home against the Eagles.
The Eagles are more vulnerable against the pass than the run, which could bode well for his outlook. Overall, Smith boasts the fifth-best Leverage Plus/Minus on both sites for this week.
Top Model D/ST Ceiling Projections
Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel)
The Steelers are one of the best defenses in the league and will now be taking on a Ravens team starting a bunch of its second-stringers. And their price point isn’t too outrageous given they dropped $900 on DraftKings and $1,400 on FanDuel compared to the previous week.
Overall, Pittsburgh ranks second, first and second in sacks per game, sack rate and pressure rate, respectively, this season, per Sports Info Solutions. This defense is a strong play in all formats.
Green Bay Packers ($3,000 DraftKings; $4,800 FanDuel)
The Packers are 12.5-point favorites which should create plenty of sack and turnover opportunities against the Lions, especially since the Lions offensive line ranks 20th in adjusted sack rate and the Packers defense ranks 10th in adjusted sack rate.
Pictured above: John Ross
Credit: USA Today Sports
