Our NFL product at FantasyLabs is powered by our Models, which feature projections from Sean Koerner. He’s been FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season ranker in three of the past four seasons, which makes our Models a must-have for the serious DFS player.
One of the best ways to incorporate his projections is by looking at each player’s Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Projected Plus/Minus is a proprietary metric that measures projected points vs. expected points. The higher the number, the better that player is expected to perform relative to his price tag.
If you wind up rostering players who finish the week with a good Plus/Minus, there’s a good chance you’re going to find yourself at the top of the leaderboards.
Here are six players who are popping as values in our NFL Models for Week 8.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson ($7,100 on DraftKings) vs. Oakland Raiders
Watson is one of the most expensive QBs across the industry, but he still stands out as one of the best pure values. The Raiders defense has been absolutely dreadful — opposing QBs have averaged 24.78 DraftKings points per game when the Raiders over the first six weeks, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +8.23 (per the Trends tool).
The Texans are currently implied for 29.25 points — which is the third-highest mark on the slate — and they’re also favored by seven points at home. Watson has historically crushed when playing in Houston, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.33 over 15 career starts.
Running Back
Sony Michel ($5,200 on DraftKings) vs. Cleveland Browns
It’s tough to figure out what to do with Michel this week. On one hand, he’s been one of the worst running backs in the league. He’s averaged just 3.28 yards per carry, the fifth-lowest mark among all RBs with at least 70 carries. That’s pretty mind-boggling considering that he plays for an elite offense.
Michel also provides virtually no production in the passing game. He has just six catches on nine targets after catching just seven passes as a rookie.
So why should you consider him this week?
For starters, Michel remains highly involved in the Pats’ offense despite his struggles. He’s logged at least 15 carries in six of his first seven games, and he’s garnered 72.5% of the Patriots’ rushing attempts since Week 4. His 25 carries in the red zone rank third in the NFL, and that obviously provides tons of value: Michel found the end zone three times last week.
The Patriots are also massive home favorites this week, which usually bodes well for running backs. RBs with comparable workloads have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.49 on DraftKings when favored by more than a touchdown at home.
It’s hard to find a RB in a better situation this week.
Ty Johnson ($5,200 on FanDuel) vs. New York Giants
Johnson stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s expected to take over as the lead back in Detroit after the injury to Kerryon Johnson. Johnson has garnered more than 60.5% of the Lions’ carries, and he’s the only RB on the roster to rush for a touchdown this season.
That opens up a bunch of value.
Johnson was a sixth-round draft pick, but he has an interesting profile. He averaged at least 6.4 yards per carry in all four years at University of Maryland, including 9.1 yards per carry as a sophomore. He wasn’t invited to the combine, but he ran an unofficial 4.26 40 at his school’s pro day. He’s clearly an above-average athlete at the position — PlayerProfiler gives him an 86th-percentile speed score — so it will be interesting to see if he can take advantage of his increased workload. The Lions are six-point favorites at home vs. the Giants, so this is a nice spot for Johnson to debut as a lead back.
Wide Receiver
Mike Williams ($4,000 on DraftKings) @ Chicago Bears
Williams has been priced down to just $4,000 on DraftKings, which makes him a prime buy-low target. He remains heavily involved in the Chargers offense. He’s logged 29 targets over the past three weeks, which ranks first on the team over that time frame. He’s also seen five total red zone targets over that time frame.
Williams would also benefit if Keenan Allen is ultimately ruled out. He’s currently questionable with a hamstring injury, and head coach Anthony Lynn stated that Allen could be limited even if he is able to suit up.
This matchup vs. the Bears isn’t exactly a smash spot — they currently rank eighth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA — but Williams does have the best individual matchup on the team. He’s expected to match up vs. Kyle Fuller, who has the worst Pro Football Focus grade among the Bears’ starting corners.
Calvin Ridley ($5,400 on FanDuel) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Ridley put together a fantastic rookie campaign, racking up 64 catches for 821 yards and 10 TDs, but he’s had an up-and-down second season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just three of his first six games on FanDuel.
That said, he should benefit from the trade of Mohamed Sanu. Sanu has played more snaps than Ridley in every game this season, and he’s also commanded 14.4% of Atlanta’s passing targets. His absence should result in a few additional snaps and targets for game for Ridley.
The Falcons have struggled this season, put their passing game still provides plenty of value. They currently rank second in the league in passing yards per game, and they’re also passing at the second-highest frequency.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert ($2,800 on DraftKings) @ Buffalo Bills
It’s been tough to find cheap options to roster at the TE position this season, but Goedert stands out. He’s been playing more since the injury to DeSean Jackson, and Goedert been on the field for at least 69% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps in three of the past four weeks. He’s still far from a focal point — he’s averaged 4.5 targets over the past four weeks — but he doesn’t need to be at his current salary.
Goedert is also a plus-athlete at the position, so he’s capable of doing damage with limited targets.
Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of the past four weeks on DraftKings, yet his salary has actually decreased over that time frame. He’s a viable punt play if you’re looking to load up on the rest of your roster.
Pictured: Lions RB Ty Johnson (38)
Photo Credit: Raj Mehta-USA Today Sports