NFL DFS DraftKings Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and Favorite Angle in Titans-Steelers

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 DFS lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

Try Our New SimLabs Tool!

We’re excited to announce the launch of our new NFL DFS simulations tool! Try SimLabs for FREE while it’s still in beta.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Titans vs. Steelers Showdown

This week I’m going with a “flag plant” style player take. Treylon Burks is the kind of boom or bust option I love taking shots on for Showdown slates, and current FantasyLabs ownership projections have him coming in at only around 12% in the FLEX.

The brand-new SimLabs only uses him around 7% of the time in default builds, but I think there is more going on than meets the eye. First, he only ran a route on 68% of dropbacks in his first game back from injury.  However, new signal caller Will Levis is a great stylistic match for Burks.

Levis notoriously has a huge arm that he showed off in his first start and loves to stretch the field, a way that Burks has historically shined. Burks did have two deep targets that he and the rookie were unable to connect on, but they highlighted the single-game splash potential these two have. Second, Pittsburgh is set to be without star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick which can only help Burks in terms of winning deep.

The Steelers might also be without starting CB Levi Wallace, who is listed as questionable. With all of these factors, I think Burks has a way better than 12% chance of being in the optimal lineup tonight at just $3800 on DraftKings.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 4 players vs. Opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Kenny Pickett with at least two Steelers pass-catchers.
• Pair Captain Will Levis with at least two Titans pass-catchers.
• Exclude Jaylen Warren in lineups with Najee Harris Captain, and vice-versa.
• Decrease Jaylen Warren by 8% in lineups with Najee Harris and vice-versa.
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.
• Most lineups should also pair Captain pass-catchers with their QB.

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses
• Max 1 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Phillips
• Max 1 Calvin Austin and Allen Robinson

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Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Derrick Henry
• George Pickens
• Deandre Hopkins

Secondary Targets

• Diontae Johnson
• Treylon Burks
• Will Levis
• Jaylen Warren
• Tyjae Spears
• Najee Harris

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Kenny Pickett
• Chig Okonkwo
• Steelers Defense

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections: