NFL Week 8 wraps up with a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings at 8:20 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
Dak Prescott is the most expensive player in this game, but he’s currently questionable with a calf injury.
I’m going to be operating under the assumption that he does not play. Head coach Mike McCarthy seemed pessimistic when asked about Prescott on Friday, and he’s too important to risk in essentially a meaningless contest. The Cowboys own a massive lead in the NFC East, keeping Prescott healthy for the postseason is more important than playing him in Week 8 vs. the Vikings.
If he does suit up, the Cowboys’ pass-catchers would all get a sizable bump. Prescott could also be under-owned in that situation, so make sure to monitor the news prior to kickoff.
Prescott’s absence could also have an impact on Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke has averaged nearly 25 DraftKings points in 70 career games with Prescott, but that number dips to just 19.5 in 10 games without him. He averages nearly five fewer carries, 33 fewer yards, and nearly half a touchdown less in those contests.
The Vikings would be able to load up to stop the run if Prescott is out, but it remains to be seen if that would actually work. They rank just 24th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, and the Cowboys’ ground game has been one of the best in the league this season. That means Zeke could still find some success in this matchup.
It would be tougher to make a case for CeeDee Lamb. He’s coming off a monster game last week, finishing with 39.1 DraftKings points, but the downgrade from Prescott to Cooper Rush would be sizable. Lamb has been priced up to $9,800 in this matchup, and the Vikings rank third in pass defense DVOA. Our Models have him graded as a clear fade.
Kirk Cousins will be under center for the Vikings, and he has quietly had an excellent season. He’s averaged the 10th-most fantasy points per game at the quarterback position, and he’s tossed 13 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions.
He takes the field in an awesome spot vs. the Cowboys. They rank 10th in pass defense DVOA, but Cousins still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.3 on DraftKings. That’s the top mark on the slate.
Cousins also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Vikings are listed as three-point home favorites, and home favorites have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.03 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Overall, Cousins leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of median and ceiling projection, and he also owns the best projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Justin Jefferson is Cousins’ top receiving, and he owns some of the wildest home-road splits in the league. He’s averaged 14.17 DraftKings points in 11 career road games, but that number balloons all the way to 23.45 when playing at home. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of +7.93 and a Consistency Rating of 81.8%.
Jefferson should be able to take advantage of a weak group of Cowboys’ corners. Trevon Diggs has gotten plenty of pub thanks to his massive interception total, but he’s still allowed a generous 0.31 fantasy points per route run to opposing receivers. The Cowboys’ other corners aren’t imposing either, and Pro Football Focus credits Jefferson with the fifth-largest matchup advantage at wide receiver this week.
Finally, Dalvin Cook has been in-and-out of the lineup for the Vikings this season, but he’s been excellent when he’s suited up. He’s scored at least 19.8 DraftKings points in each of his three full games, but he’s been priced down to just $9,400 for this matchup. That results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, making him a very appealing buy-low option.
Midrange
Jefferson gets most of the notoriety for the Vikings, but Adam Thielen has also provided solid fantasy value. He’s coming off his best game of the year last week vs. the Panthers, racking up 13 targets, 11 receptions, 126 yards, and a touchdown. Overall, Thielen has seen 21% of the Vikings’ targets and 28% of their air yards, making him one of the top No. 2 receivers in football. He’s also tied with Jefferson for the team lead in endzone targets, so he has plenty of ways to score fantasy points.
Thielen benefits from the same strong matchup as Jefferson this week, and playing both together is a viable strategy. They have a slightly positive correlation at +0.09 on DraftKings, so it’s possible for both to succeed in the same contest. That said, I would probably only want to utilize that strategy if I’m also rostering Cousins.
Amari Cooper is cheaper than he’s been all season on DraftKings, but he’s fallen behind Lamb in the Cowboys’ pecking order. His target share has dipped to just 19% this year.
However, Cooper still leads the Cowboys in both air yards and endzone targets, so he does continue to provide upside. He would be a very interesting buy-low option with Prescott at quarterback, but he’s tough to trust with Rush. However, our Models give him a clear edge over Lamb, so he gets the nod if you’re playing a Cowboys’ receiver.
Dalton Schultz is just $400 cheaper than Amari on DraftKings, so it’s hard to make a case for him there. He’s a more viable option at $10,000 on FanDuel, but he still isn’t grading out particularly favorably.
Rush is priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel, and you would have to be at least somewhat interested at those price tags. He’s basically a complete unknown, throwing just three passes in his entire career. Those came all the way back in 2017, so we’re dealing with a very small sample size.
Rush did hold his own during the preseason this year, completing 29 of 41 passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns. Facing the Vikings is a tall task, but Rush doesn’t have to do much to be fantasy-relevant on this slate.
Tony Pollard has formed a lethal committee with Elliott this season, but that hasn’t led to a ton of fantasy value. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on DraftKings, but his salary has come down quite a bit since then. He’s also the Cowboys’ preferred pass-catching back, so he could see a bump in targets with Rush at quarterback.
Pollard is a particularly appealing buy-low option at just $8,500 on FanDuel.
K.J. Osborn has provided some fantasy utility as the Vikings’ No. 3 receiver this year. He’s coming off an excellent game last week, finishing with six catches for 78 yards and a touchdown, and he’s an interesting pivot off the Vikings’ top receiver. He owns a correlation of -0.73 with Jefferson, so Osborn is a prime candidate in lineups where you’re fading him.
Tyler Conklin is another viable target in the Vikings’ passing game. He’s played on the majority of their offensive snaps this season, and he’s seen at least four targets in five of six games. The only thing he hasn’t really done is score touchdowns, so he could be due for some positive regression in that department.
Quick Hits
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Expect the Vikings D to command sizable ownership if Rush starts at quarterback.
- Cedrick Wilson ($4,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Wilson’s days as the Cowboys’ No. 3 receiver are numbered with Michael Gallup nearing a return. However, he saw seven targets last week, and he’s played on a large portion of their offensive snaps over the past two weeks.
- Blake Jarwin ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Jarwin has fallen well behind Schultz at the TE position, but he played on more than 50% of the snaps and caught a touchdown last week. That gives him some upside as a punt play.
- Alexander Mattison ($1,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Mattison is dirt-cheap on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, but he’s shown minimal viability in weeks where Cook has played. He played just three snaps and finished with 1.0 DraftKings point last week, so he could be fool’s gold on this slate.
- Noah Brown ($1,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Brown doesn’t play a ton of snaps, but he’s seen at least two targets in back-to-back weeks. He’s caught at least two passes in each of those games for a total of 83 yards, so he has the potential to pay off this price tag.
- Dede Westbrook ($800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Westbrook plays a similar role for the Vikings, and he’s racked up three targets in back-to-back weeks. He’s currently questionable, but he’s a viable dart throw if he’s active.
