Before the season, I introduced an idea called “NFL DFS Correlation Values” where I essentially just compared the price differences between the correlations we know are positive – specifically, QBs and their WRs, QBs and Kickers, and QBs and D/STs – and see where we could find “free upside.” Read the original article here for a more in-depth explanation. Also, I made a video explaining it more in case you like that better:
Basically, the point is, we know that there is a positive correlation between a D/ST and the QB of the same team. We can look at the slate and the price differences between all the QBs and D/STs on the weekend and see which have the biggest price discrepancies. Really, it boils down to this – if you’re going to take a QB, how much does it cost you to take his D/ST as well? If it’s essentially nothing – maybe they’re minimum salary – then you’re more-or-less getting that “free upside” I mentioned above.
Moving on, here’s the data for Week 6. (Everything is sorted alphabetically.)
DraftKings: QB and WR Correlation Values
Pricing hasn’t changed a ton over the first six weeks — the best correlation values are still with the Panthers and Seahawks, mostly because of their bad, low-priced wide receivers. I think that there’s a lot of value in the middle and I’m looking at potentially Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief (assuming Luck is healthy) and even the Bortles-Robinson/Hurns stack that isn’t too costly.
FanDuel: QB and WR Correlation Values
We see the same ones here except for a few exceptions — it looks like there’s a value for the Titans, but I think that’s actually because they’ve overpriced Mariota rather than underpriced Kendall Wright. In general, that’s a big difference between FanDuel and DraftKings — almost all the QBs on FD are $7k or over, whereas on DraftKings there’s a much bigger discrepancy between the top, middle, and bottom tiers.
FanDuel: QB and K Correlation Values
Again, I always try to pay up for my kicker — I think it’s useful because it’s natural contrarian (most people want to fill in their kicker and defense last) and also it’s such a minimal cost to get that upside in your lineup. There are some huge over/under’s this week — three above 50 currently — so I would definitely pay up for one of those kickers.
FanDuel: K and D/ST Correlation Value
Things are a little more spread out because FanDuel lets defenses go under $4500, but it’s still not a drastic difference. I think I would focus on the QB-K correlation first, but if it makes sense at the price, I wouldn’t mind adding in a correlated defense as well. The Packers probably make the most sense out of the top teams in implied points.
Good luck in Week 6!
