NFL Week 7 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Jonathan Taylor at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,500 as opposed to $11,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
In these articles, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate. And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
This matchup doesn’t feature a ton of fantasy superstars, and points are expected to be at a premium. The total currently sits at 42.5 points, and the 49ers are listed as 3.5-point home favorites. That gives them a slight edge in implied team total.
Another thing worth noting is the current weather forecast in San Francisco. It calls for heavy rain and winds, which is another factor that could impact the scoring. The conditions could make it especially difficult to pass the football.
Taylor is the only true fantasy stud in this contest, and he’s been rolling of late. He’s scored at least 23.4 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, and he’s gone for at least 31.8 in his past two. He’s scored five touchdowns over that time frame, and he’s also recorded a 100-yard rushing game and a 100-yard receiving game.
That said, his production is definitely a bit fluky. He’s ripped off long plays in each of the past two weeks: an 83-yard rushing score in Week 7 and a 76-yard receiving score in Week 6. Taylor is the type of player who can make big plays, but those aren’t going to be a frequent occurrence.
The 49ers represent a neutral matchup for Taylor. They rank 15th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, giving Taylor an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.2 on DraftKings.
Overall, Taylor seems a bit overpriced in this contest, owning just the fourth-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models. That would make him a fade candidate in most situations, but the weather forecast does increase his appeal. This could be a game where both teams are forced to lean on the run a bit more than usual.
Jimmy Garoppolo will be back under center for the 49ers this week, and he should see all of the quarterback snaps with Trey Lance out of the lineup. A backup quarterback being injured wouldn’t normally be newsworthy, but Lance has vultured from fantasy points from Garoppolo at times this season.
The Colts have been an excellent fantasy matchup for quarterbacks this year. They’ve been a massive pass funnel, ranking first in rush defense DVOA and 29th in pass defense DVOA, so quarterbacks have been forced to take to the air. That gives Garoppolo an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.1 on DraftKings, which is the top mark on the slate.
That said, Garoppolo has historically been dreadful as a home favorite as a member of the 49ers. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -3.68 and a Consistency Rating of just 16.7% in 18 previous occurrences (per the Trends tool). He does lead all players in our models in terms of Projected Ceiling, but his track record and the weather forecast make him a risky option.
The 49ers have also been a nice matchup for opposing quarterbacks this season, giving Carson Wentz an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.5. Wentz has also been a decent source of fantasy production this season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first six games.
Unfortunately, Wentz is another quarterback who doesn’t thrive in his current split. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -0.69 as a road underdog, averaging just 16.48 DraftKings points per week.
Deebo Samuel rounds out this group, and he’s emerged as the 49ers’ alpha wide receiver. He’s posted a 32% target share and a 36% air yard share, and he’s also seen some involvement in the run game. Getting Garoppolo back in the lineup should help him – his worst game as a pass-catcher was in Week 5 with Lance – and he owns the best projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in the stud tier.
Midrange
Michael Pittman has served as the Colts’ top receiving option for most of the year. His role took a hit last week with T.Y. Hilton back in the lineup, but Hilton is out of the lineup vs. the 49ers. That means the coast is clear for Pittman to return to his early-season role. He saw at least seven targets in each game from Week 2 through 5, and he recorded at least six catches in each of them.
Pittman’s matchup vs. the 49ers is an interesting one. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.0 on DraftKings, and the 49ers rank just 18th in DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers. However, Pro Football Focus gives him a below-average rating in terms of matchup.
Elijah Mitchell returned to the 49ers’ lineup last week, and he stepped right back into his role as the team’s top running back. He played on 44 of 65 snaps, and he received 9 of the 11 backfield attempts. That number was down a bit with Lance carrying the ball 16 times, but there should be more opportunities for Mitchell with Garoppolo at quarterback. The Colts’ rush D has been excellent this season, but he’s still an appealing option at his current price tag.
Brandon Aiyuk is coming off just 5.2 DraftKings points last week, yet his salary increased from $5,000 to $7,000 vs. the Colts. That makes him very tough to roster in this matchup. He could see some increased work on gadget players given the weather situation, but he just hasn’t had much of a role with this offense. He’s a stronger option on FanDuel at $8,500.
Zach Pascal, Nyheim Hines, and Mo Alie-Cox are all grouped together in the price range, and they should supplement Pittman in the Colts’ passing attack. Pascal has served as the Colts’ No. 2 option for most of the year. He ranks second on the team in target share and air yards share, and he leads the team with six endzone targets.
Hines is third on the team in target share, but his role on the team has dwindled. That makes sense with the emergence of Taylor, and Hines has two targets or less in each of his past three games. He has a correlation of -0.43 with Taylor, so he makes sense if you’re looking to pivot off the Colts’ starting running back, so that’s how I’m approaching him on this slate.
Cox has scored at least 8.0 DraftKings points in three straight weeks, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games. That said, his price tag has jumped up pretty significantly over that time frame, and he’s tough to trust at his current salary. He played on just 50% of the Colts’ snaps and saw just three targets last week, but he salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown. If he doesn’t score vs. the 49ers, it’s going to be very tough for him to return value.
Ross Dwelley rounds out this price range, and he saw a nice boost in value last week in place of George Kittle. He played on 59 of 65 snaps, and while he saw just two targets, that was with Lance at quarterback. He could be much more involved with Garoppolo at QB, so he’s a strong option.
Quick Hits
- Defenses and Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($4,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Juszczyk is one of the rare fullbacks worth of consideration in fantasy. He’s scored at least 5.0 FanDuel points in five straight weeks, which makes him an interesting punt play at just $5,500.
- Mohamed Sanu ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Sanu has played at least 30 snaps in each of the past three weeks, and he’s seen at least five targets in two of them. The only exception was last week with Lance, so he has some appeal at just $2,400.
- Trey Sermon ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Sermon went back to a reserve role last week, finishing with just two snaps and one carry. He’s not really in play unless you really want to lean into the weather narrative.
- Marlon Mack ($1,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Mack is slightly more involved in the Colts’ offense than Sermon is with the 49ers, which makes hit a stronger option.
- Jack Doyle ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Doyle hasn’t had a huge role for the Colts recently, but he continues to play on a high percentage of the team’s snaps. He’s a threat for a cheap touchdown in this contest.
