NFL Week 5 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Lamar Jackson at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,900 as opposed to $12,600.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
In these articles, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to break down the slate. And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups.
Studs
Jackson is the highest-priced option on this slate, just as he is basically every time he takes the field. He’s put together another excellent season so far in 2021-22, racking up at least 20.0 DraftKings points in all four games.
He remains one of the most dangerous rushing threats in football, but the Ravens have allowed him to air it out a bit more this season. They’ve increased their pass rate to 51% in one-score games, and while that’s still one of the lowest marks in the league, it’s a massive increase from their mark of 45% last season. Jackson has responded by averaging over 269 passing yards per game, which would shatter his previous career-high of 208.5. If not for an unusually low touchdown rate of 3.2%, his fantasy totals would be even more impressive.
Jackson is in a nice spot vs. the Colts. They rank just 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and Jackson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.3 on DraftKings. That’s the top mark in our NFL Models. The Ravens are also favored by 7.5 points, and Jackson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.23 when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
Overall, Jackson will be the highest-rostered player on the slate, but he’s someone you will likely need to have in your lineups.
Marquise Brown has also benefitted from the Ravens’ increased pass rate this season. He’s racked up 19 catches, 326 yards, and four touchdowns through his first four games, which has made him easily the Ravens’ top pass-catcher from a fantasy perspective.
That said, his price has skyrocketed to $11,000 on DraftKings, and he’s hard to justify at that salary. He’s not dominating the targets for Baltimore the way you would expect an $11,000 receiver to. He actually ranks second on the squad in target share, but he has corralled basically all of their receiving touchdowns. That seems unsustainable, so he’s a prime regression target moving forward.
Carson Wentz is attempting to rebuild his reputation with the Colts after a disastrous final season with the Eagles. Things haven’t been great for Wentz to start the year, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of four starts. He hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling – he’s yet to crack 20 DraftKings points – but he has provided a solid floor.
The Ravens have historically been a strong defensive squad, but they’ve regressed a bit in that department this season. They rank just 14th in pass defense DVOA, so they’ve been a neutral fantasy matchup for opposing quarterbacks.
The bigger issue is that the Colts will be without two of their starting offensive linemen, including arguably their top player in Quenton Nelson. That means Wentz could have less time in the pocket than usual, and he’s not someone who has historically thrived under pressure.
Still, Wentz owns the second-highest Median and Ceiling Projections in our NFL Models, making him a very reasonable option on this slate.
Midrange
Jonathan Taylor is coming off his best game of the season last week vs. the Dolphins. He finished with 103 rushing yards and a touchdown, resulting in 23.4 DraftKings points.
However, that was the Colts’ first win of the season, and it’s not surprising that Taylor’s best game came in a victory. He’s not a big threat in the passing game, so he needs to do most of his damage as a rusher. That makes him game script dependent.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t set up as a good potential game script for him. If the Colts do fall behind early, Taylor could end up with fewer snaps and carries than usual. He’s a strong option if you think the Colts keep this game competitive, but he’s a bit risky if you don’t.
Michael Pittman has emerged as the Colts’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver this season. He leads the team in targets, air yards, and first-read percentage, which has given him a solid fantasy floor. He’s scored at least 11.9 DraftKings points in three straight games, despite the fact that he has yet to find the end zone. If he can add a score to his otherwise strong metrics, he could be looking at a big game.
Zach Pascal has done most of the scoring for the Colts this season. He’s scored three receiving touchdowns, and he has been Wentz’s favorite target in the red zone. He’s already racked up nine targets in that area, which is easily the top mark on the team.
Pascal also stands out on this slate from a matchup perspective. He plays almost exclusively in the slot, which sets up an exploitable matchup vs. Tavon Young. He has been easily the Ravens’ worst cornerback this season according to Pro Football Focus, and he’s allowed a catch rate of 80%. Pascal is currently projected for 40 routes against Young by PFF, and he can do some damage in that matchup. He’s a bit pricy on DraftKings, but he owns a Bargain Rating of 93% on FanDuel. Either way, I like this spot for him.
I’m not sure why, but Latavius Murray has officially supplanted Ty’Son Williams as the Ravens’ top running back option. It certainly hasn’t been because of his efficiency – he’s averaged just 3.4 yards per carry this season – but Murray racked up 18 of the Ravens’ 23 running back carries last week. Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman combined for the other five, so Williams wasn’t even in the picture.
Murray seems done at this point, but any running back with the potential for that many carries is worth consideration in fantasy. The Ravens are also one of the best rushing teams in football, so those carries are even more valuable in their offense.
Mark Andrews and Sammy Watkins haven’t been as successful as Brown so far this season, but all three have been essentially equal from a target perspective. Watkins actually leads the team with a 25% target share, while Andrews isn’t far behind at 21%. Both players also own a first-read percentage of at least 23%, so there’s no reason they should be this much cheaper than Brown. The big difference is simply that Brown has four touchdowns, while these two players have zero. That should even out a bit moving forward, so both players make a lot of sense as buy-low targets.
This could be a nice spot for Nyheim Hines. He’s the Colts’ clear pass-catching back, and he could be needed more than usual if they fall behind. In his two best games this season, the Colts have lost by nine points and 12 points. In his two worst, they’ve lost by three and won by 10. Hines also owns a negative correlation with Taylor, so he’s a nice pivot if you’re fading the Colts’ starting RB in this matchup.
Mo Alie-Cox has the Colts other two receiving touchdowns this season, and both came last week vs. the Dolphins. That’s caused his salary to skyrocket from $400 on DraftKings to $5,000 for this matchup. He saw two targets or fewer in each of his previous three games this season, so that seems like a clear outlier performance.
Finally, Devin Duvernay is another player who has been priced up aggressively of late. He did have a receiving touchdown two weeks ago and six targets last week, but he still seems unlikely to pay off this price tag. He’s a pretty easy fade.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- Parris Campbell ($3,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Campbell was once considered a promising prospect, but he has struggled to get involved so far this season. He’s seen just a 7% target share, which he’s turned into five catches for 55 yards. That said, he does rank third on the Colts in air yards, which gives him a modicum of upside.
- Jack Doyle ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Doyle seems underpriced on DraftKings given his role in the Colts’ offense. He ranks fourth on the team in targets and third in first-read percentage, so he’s a nice value play at just $2,600.
- Le’Veon Bell ($1,800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Bell served as the Ravens’ No. 2 running back last week, but he managed just four carries for 11 yards. That gives him some appeal as one of the cheapest players on FanDuel.
- Marlon Mack ($600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Mack is reportedly a trade candidate, but he emerged from the Colts’ bench to finish with 10 carries last week. That said, they were virtually all in garbage time, so he will likely return to a reserve role vs. the Ravens.
- Rashod Bateman ($200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Bateman may suit up this week for the first time all season, and he’s definitely an interesting option if that happens. He’ll likely be eased into action, but the 2021 first-rounder might be the most talented receiver on the Ravens’ roster.
