NFL Week 7 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and the Cleveland Browns.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Courtland Sutton at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $15,000 as opposed to $12,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
In these articles, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate. And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
This slate is as light on studs as any slate we’ve seen all year. The Broncos’ offense doesn’t typically provide a ton of fantasy value, while the Browns are absolutely decimated by injuries. The total on this game sits at 41.0, so the scoring is expected to be kept to a minimum.
Teddy Bridgewater is the most expensive player on the slate. He’s technically listed as questionable, but he got in a full week of limited practices, and head coach Vic Fangio said he “expects” Bridgewater to play.
Bridgewater has had a typical Bridgewater season. He’s not going to wow you with his raw production, but his efficiency metrics are above average. He’s averaged 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt this season, which ranks 17th among qualified quarterbacks. Bridgewater has also racked up 10 touchdown passes with just four interceptions, and three of those came in one game.
He takes the field in a strong spot vs. the Browns. They’ve been a major pass funnel this season, ranking 20th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA and third in rush defense DVOA. That means opposing quarterbacks have had to air it out, making this a plus matchup. Overall, Bridgewater leads all players with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.0 on DraftKings.
Courtland Sutton should continue to operate as Bridgewater’s No. 1 pass catcher. There was a chance that Jerry Jeudy would return to the lineup this week, but Fangio said the team would activate him by Wednesday afternoon if that was going to happen. He wasn’t activated, with the Broncos instead promoting Tyrie Cleveland to the 53-man roster. The Broncos still haven’t officially ruled Jeudy out, but all signs point towards him sitting.
In his absence, Sutton has taken on a massive workload. He’s averaged 10 targets per game over the past five weeks, and he logged 14 last week vs. the Raiders. He’s also dominated from an air yards perspective. Sutton has gobbled up 43% of the Broncos air yards this season, and no one else on the squad has more than 19%. He also leads the team in end zone targets and first read percentage, so he’s operating as a true alpha receiver. The Browns rank just 26th in DVOA vs. No. 1 wideouts this season, so Sutton might be the closest thing to an actual stud on Thursday’s slate.
The first big injury for the Browns this week is at quarterback. Baker Mayfield has been ruled out after injuring his non-throwing shoulder, so Case Keenum will make the start vs. the Broncos. We last saw Keenum as a starter back in 2019 when he led the Football Team to a 1-7 record.
However, Keenum’s numbers aren’t all that bad. He averaged 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt to go along with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Those certainly aren’t great numbers, but I’ve played worse quarterbacks on a single-game slate.
The matchup vs. the Broncos is also passable. They rank 24th in defensive DVOA, including 21st against the pass. Keenum owns the top Ceiling Projection in our NFL Models, making him extremely viable at his current salary on DraftKings.
Of course, you don’t need me to tell you he’s in play on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,000 as a starting quarterback, so anything less than 100% exposure is a mistake. The only real question is if you should use him in one of the premium spots or as a utility.
Midrange
Noah Fant has been the Broncos’ No. 2 pass catcher sans Jeudy. He’s logged at least 10 targets in two of his past three games, and he’s scored a touchdown in both contests. He’s also played on virtually every snap over the past three weeks, which gives him more upside than the typical tight end.
Unfortunately, Fant’s matchup isn’t quite as good as Sutton’s. The Browns are solid at defending tight ends thanks to linebacker Sione Takitaki. He’s allowed just 0.10 fantasy points per route run and a 60% catch rate this season, and Pro Football Focus gives him a sizable edge over Fant.
Tim Patrick has been a steady source of fantasy value this season. He’s posted a mediocre 16% target share, but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring at least 12.7 DraftKings points in five of six games.
His price has reached a season-high $7,600 on DraftKings, but that still comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. That makes him one of the better pure values in this price range.
Next up is the Broncos’ running back duo of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, and it’s hard to split these guys at the moment. Gordon has racked up 70 carries through the first six games, while Williams has racked up 65. Gordon also owns the slightest of edges in yards per carry – 4.7 vs. 4.6 – while Williams has seen one additional target. Williams also has one additional carry from inside the five-yard line, but Gordon has seen more carries in the red zone overall. Basically, this situation is a nightmare for fantasy purposes.
Our models do give Williams a slight edge in the projections, which makes him the preferred target. Williams is also significantly cheaper than Gordon on FanDuel, so he has the clear edge there.
It’s weird to see Odell Beckham Jr. priced this low. He was once considered one of the best receivers in football, but those days feel long in the past. He’s coming off his best game of the season last week, but he still finished with just five catches, 79 yards, and 12.9 DraftKings points.
With that in mind, maybe a change at quarterback will help him. Beckham is one of the rare wide receivers who has a negative correlation with his starting quarterback, so Keenum could get him a bit more involved this week. He’s currently questionable with a shoulder injury, but he’s an interesting buy-low target if he suits up.
Jarvis Landry is also questionable for the Browns after missing the past four games with a knee injury. He’s priced almost identically to Beckham across the industry, and it’s hard to get behind him if both players are active. He’s projected for nearly three fewer points in our NFL Models.
Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku have both seen sizable price increases of late, which makes both easy fades if Beckham and Landry are active. DPJ would likely lose snaps and targets in that situation, and his scoreline last week was inflated by a Hail Mary touchdown grab at the end of the first half. Njoku’s price is inflated from a big game two weeks ago, but he finished with just 26 snaps and two targets last week.
Finally, the Browns’ rushing attack could provide some value this week. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are both out, which leaves D’Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton to split the workload. The Browns were already in a big hole before Hunt left the game last week, so we’re not really sure how the carries will be divvied up between them. Johnson saw the only rushing attempt for the duo, while Felton was more involved as a receiver.
Both players grade out as viable options on this slate, but the receiving ability makes Felton my choice. He played both receiver and tailback in college, so his receiving production is not fluky.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, just make sure to correlate the rest of your lineups around them.
- Austin Hooper ($3,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Hooper has seen the same number of targets as Njoku, yet he’s significantly cheaper on DraftKings. His five red-zone targets rank first on the squad, while his two end-zone targets are tied for first. He could be a nice source of savings.
- Rashard Higgins ($3,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Higgins would get a bump if Beckham and/or Landry are ruled out, but he’s not really in play if they’re active. He finished with zero catches last week and saw just three targets.
- Kendall Hinton ($2,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): You have to feel happy for Hinton. He was asked to serve as the Broncos’ emergency quarterback last year, but now he’s seeing the field at receiver. He’s found some success in that role too, scoring at least 8.7 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks. He played on a season-high 51 snaps and saw five targets last week, so he’s viable at such a cheap price tag.
- Anthony Schwartz ($1,200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Schwartz is even further down the Browns’ depth chart than Higgins. He’s only in play if the team is missing their top two receivers.
- Eric Saubert ($600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Saubert is the Broncos’ TE2 at the moment, and he was involved in the passing attack last week. He played on just 28 of 81 snaps, but he racked up five targets, three catches, and 23 yards.
