This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. For cash games, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position and choosing the highest-floor lineup combinations. Then comes a game-by-game tournament breakdown through which I highlight the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each game.

The 2019 Conference Championships kick off Sunday with Chiefs-Titans at 3:05 p.m. ET. on CBS, followed by 49ers-Packers at 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX. This breakdown focuses on the two-game main slate.

Conference Championship shmoney time.

Quarterback (Cash)

• Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($7,700 DK, $9,500 FD) vs. TEN

Projected to score 5 more points than any other player on the slate in our NFL Player Models, Patrick Mahomes is Priority No. 1 in cash games this week. In Week 10, Mahomes pasted the Titans for 446 passing yards and 4 TDs on 50 attempts.

Running Back (Cash)

• Raheem Mostert, 49ers ($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD) vs. GB
• Damien Williams, Chiefs ($7,000 DK, FD) vs. TEN
• Derrick Henry, Titans ($8,700 DK, $9,800 FD) at KC

Raheem Mostert (12 carries, 58 yards) was outshined by Tevin Coleman (22-105-2) last week after enduring cramping issues, but the corresponding drop in price slots him in with the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position in our Models. Mostert has logged double-digit touches in six straight games and found the end zone in six of his last seven.

I consider Derrick Henry and Damien Williams the second and third priorities for this slate. Henry has been fed 30-plus carries in three straight outings and is facing a Kansas City run defense that ranked 29th in schedule-adjusted efficiency during the regular season, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Henry bludgeoned the Chiefs for 188 yards and 2 TDs on 23 carries in the first meeting. His counterpart, Williams, played 62-of-64 snaps last weekend and is averaging 110.2 scrimmage yards and 1.4 TDs on 17.6 touches over his last five healthy contests.

Wide Receiver (Cash)

• Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($5,500 DK, $6,300 FD) vs. GB
• Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers ($4,900 DK, $5,500 FD) vs. GB
• Sammy Watkins, Chiefs ($4,600 DK, $5,200 FD) vs. TEN
• Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs ($4,000 DK, $5,000 FD) vs. TEN
• Corey Davis, Titans ($4,000 DK, $5,000 FD) at KC

With the Titans going into a run-heavy shell as of late, I prefer Deebo Samuel to A.J. Brown in cash games. Brown has caught just one pass in three of the past four games while Samuel has been held to a single catch just once in his last nine, averaging 6.1 targets and 1.1 carries over that span.

Emmanuel Sanders and Sammy Watkins have been volatile fantasy assets, but each of them has a top-six median projection among WRs on this slate.

Corey Davis and Demarcus Robinson are purely punt plays for FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Davis can be expected to run a route on roughly 90% of Titans pass plays, while Robinson is in the 50% range for the Chiefs.

Tight End (Cash)

• George Kittle, 49ers ($5,800 DK, FD) vs. GB

Since Travis Kelce has been priced up following his three-TD outburst last week and you can gain exposure to him via Mahomes, George Kittle is the play at TE. Kittle struggled against Minnesota’s top-ranked defense in DVOA vs. tight ends, hauling in just three catches for 16 yards on five targets, but that marked only the third time in 15 games he was held under 50 yards.

Defense/Special Teams (Cash)

• San Francisco 49ers ($2,900 DK, $4,600 FD) vs. GB

49ers DST has posted double-digit fantasy points in 10-of-17 games, including 11.0 in a 37-8 rout of Green Bay in Week 12. Given that the Titans are going up against Mahomes and how run-heavy the Titans and 49ers are liable to be on offense, the San Francisco defense looks like the safest bet both floor and ceiling-wise.

Roster Build (Cash)

On DraftKings, you can get in Mahomes, Henry, Williams, Mostert, Samuel, Kittle, and 49ers DST if you go with Watkins at WR2 and Robinson at WR3.

On FanDuel, you can fit Mahomes, Henry, Williams, Mostert, Kittle, and 49ers DST if you pay down at WR with Sanders, Watkins, and Davis.

Both of those lineups give you exposure to the top projected scorers for each team except the Packers, who have the toughest matchup and are implied for the fewest points on the slate according to Vegas odds (18.75 as of Thursday afternoon; view live odds here).

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (GPP)

Chiefs: In their Wild Card victory over the Patriots, the Titans double-teamed both Julian Edelman and James White on key plays, so I think stacking Patrick Mahomes with Damien Williams and Sammy Watkins is a good way of saving salary while gaining differentiation off chalky Mahomes-Tyreek Hill–Travis Kelce stacks. The same is true — albeit to a lesser extent — of Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman. Watkins, Robinson, and Hardman carry extra value on this slate because of how wide the chasm is between Mahomes and the other three QBs. Chiefs DST has a -0.53 correlation with Mahomes and is one of the top ways to leverage a Mahomes fade, ideally stacked with Williams and/or Hardman, a Pro Bowl return man.

Titans: Derrick Henry–Titans DST has been the nuts the entire playoffs. The Titans are expected to be the lowest-owned DST by far, and the best way to gain differentiation when using Derrick Henry and/or fading Mahomes. Ryan Tannehill–A.J. Brown have posted a monster +0.70 correlation and provide massive leverage on Henry. They also provide underrated leverage on Mahomes, as Kansas City’s QB-Opposing QB correlation has been positive and relatively strong (+0.45, per our NFL Correlations Dashboard). Brown’s price has crept down low enough to use him without Tannehill, but his floor is so low that I wouldn’t recommend it unless you’re a high-volume, mass-entry player. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs allowed more schedule-adjusted yards per game to tight ends (58.7) than WR1s (55.9), WR2s (33.8), and non-WR1/2s (43.8), so I’d give Jonnu Smith the edge over Corey Davis, Tajae Sharpe, and company as the top standalone Titans pass catcher.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (GPP)

49ers: Because he has a better matchup than Aaron Rodgers and plays in a (slightly) less run-heavy offense than Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo is my QB2 this week. Jimmy G’s correlations to Emmanuel Sanders (+0.64) and Deebo Samuel (+0.43) are stronger than to George Kittle (+0.33). Kittle has shown no correlation to Sanders (0.00), but a negative one to Samuel (-0.31) and Kendrick Bourne (-0.27). Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert have a -0.58 correlation. Both are expected to garner similar ownership, giving the edge to the cheaper Mostert. That said, roughly half of lineups are expected to fade both, so they both warrant overweight exposure against a Green Bay defense that ranked 23rd in DVOA against the run during the regular season. Matt Breida‘s arrow is pointing south after he saw action on just 12-of-71 offensive snaps and committed a fumble while in clock-killing mode last week. In addition to working in stacks with the team’s RBs, 49ers DST is the ideal play in lineups featuring Mahomes, Henry, and/or Williams, as defensive success for San Francisco would correlate with an increased likelihood of Davante Adams and Aaron Jones failing to outscore their similarly priced alternatives in the Chiefs-Titans matchup.

Packers: We’re projecting Davante Adams to be in over half of all lineups but Aaron Rodgers to appear in approximately 10%, so the high-leverage move is to limit exposure to Adams outside of contrarian Rodgers stacks. Given his price, projected ownership, and a tough matchup that saw him rack up only 43 receiving yards on 12 targets in the first meeting, Adams’ value will likely hinge on whether or not he scores a TD. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones is cheaper than Adams and projects for half as much ownership despite averaging 1.06 TDs per game to Adams’ 0.54 this season. Packers DST has shown positive correlation with Jones (+0.15) and is a better bet to pay off than Allen Lazard, Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison, and company once you take price into account.

Chris Raybon finished No. 4 in FantasyPros’ weekly fantasy football rankings accuracy contest in 2019. He is a Senior Editor and NFL analyst at the Action Network, as well as a co-host of “The Action Network” on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio on Thursdays and Fridays at 10 a.m. ET. He also hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and be sure to read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.

Photo Credit: Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images. Pictured: Raheem Mostert