There’s no disputing it — the two best teams in the country made the National Championship. The defending champion UConn Huskies experienced little to no setbacks en route to their second title game in as many years. Similarly, the Purdue Boilermakers undid years of disappointing finishes to make their first final since 1969. As the betting line implies, this game should be a tightly contested affair, albeit with the Huskies going into the battle with a decided edge.
This article will discuss 2-5 of my favorite pick’ems from DFS sites like PrizePicks. Check out our PrizePicks referral code for more details.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are.
March Madness PrizePicks Predictions Today
Zach Edey Higher 38 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The Boilermakers didn’t need Zach Edey at his best to escape their Final Four matchup against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. But even a light load Edey was the top performer on the court. With the stakes higher than they’ve ever been, Edey will need to recapture his best efforts from earlier in the tourney. Thankfully, our projections reveal that’s likely to happen on Monday.
According to our prediction model, there’s an advantage in nearly every one of Edey’s projections. The Most Outstanding Player frontrunner is projected to go off, exceeding his points, rebounds, and assists projection. Although you could approach any derivative, the most substantive edge is backing Edey to surpass 38 points + rebounds + assists.
As expected, Edey has the resume to back up such lofty expectations. The Canadian’s 20-point effort against NC State dropped his tournament scoring average to 28.0 points per game. Likewise, he grabbed 12 boards but is still averaging 15.4 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament. Mix in a few assists, and Edey has the capacity to easily surpass his betting totals versus the Huskies.
Lastly, Edey’s underlying metrics support ongoing success is expected in the final. His shooting percentage has inched up to 65.4% in tournament play, and he’s played no fewer than 38 minutes in any of his last three contests. That high-volume, efficient effort will facilitate another exceptional outcome, with Edey exceeding his points + rebounds + assists total at State Farm Stadium.
Trey Kaufman-Renn Lower 10 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Purdue has set its sights on another uncommon distinction this season. Following tomorrow’s contest, they will have gone the entire season using the same starting lineup, a feat the program hasn’t accomplished since the 1970s. Trey Kaufman-Renn has been the default starter, but as we’ve seen as the tournament has progressed, he’s not the preferred option when the going gets tough.
Mason Gillis has taken on a more robust role throughout the tournament. The senior has outplayed Kaufman-Renn in each of the past three outings, limiting Kaufman-Renn’s contributions. That will play out in a similar fashion again on Monday.
Despite starting every game, Kaufman-Renn has totaled just 46 minutes since the Sweet Sixteen. Over that stretch, he’s averaging 5.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, and a paltry 0.3 assists. Somehow, though, the market thinks it’s plausible that he exceeds 10 points + rebounds + assists versus the Huskies.
Kaufman-Renn has disappointed over his last few starts, and it’s unlikely he gets more playing time against the favored Huskies. Consequently, we’re betting that the Boilermakers forward falls below his threshold in the championship game.
Donovan Clingan Lower 22.5 Points + Rebounds
UConn has relied on Donovan Clingan through the past couple of rounds to deliver the Huskies to the finale. However, the center has yet to take on an imposing player of Edey’s ilk. The sophomore’s reign of terror will likely come to an end in Phoenix as he matches up against the Player of the Year.
Of course, we also have to consider that Clingan’s metrics are overheating. His points per game has increased while his shooting percentage has decreased, leaving Clingan in an unsustainable place. He’s been afforded the luxury of taking more shots against inferior opponents, but he can’t put up a diminished shooting percentage against the Boilermakers and continue to expect the ball. Something has to give, and we think it will be his output.
Edey will facilitate some of that anticipated regression. He’s bottled up the best the opposition can throw at him, helping limit DJ Burns Jr. and Mohamed Diarra to a combined ten points in the Final Four. With Gillis and Kaufman-Renn tagging in with help, Clingan will have his work cut out for him around Purdue’s basket.
In addition to his anticipated scoring woes, Clingan will also be out-matched on the glass. He decisively lost the rebound battle to Grant Nelson on Saturday, getting out-rebounded 15-5. Now, the Huskies center faces an even stiffer challenge versus Edey.
Clingan has endeared himself to the Huskies faithful, but he will be met with resistance against Purdue. Therefore, the playable wager is betting that Clingan falls beneath 22.5 points + rebounds.
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