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With this in mind, we’ve begun a “Trend of the Day” series. Every weekday we’ll walk our subscribers through an important trend for that day’s slate of games.

One of the first things I notice when looking at tonight’s slate is that two of the bigs who have been popular recently have a very wide range of possible outcomes on tonight’s slate. Specifically, I am speaking about Alex Len and Derrick Favors. Just look at these gaps between their projected Ceilings and Floors:

– Favors: 13.1 Floor, 51.3 Ceiling

– Len: 12.9 Floor, 53.1 Ceiling

So what has happened in the past when players have had a gap between floor and ceiling this large? I’m glad you asked…

Trend: Ceiling 50+, Floor 15-

I usually start each of my Trends with a minutes filter, but in this case, that will be unnecessary because you really can’t have a Ceiling of 50 or more while being projected to play low minutes at the same time.

Step 1: Projection Filters > Ceiling > Set “50+”

 

Interestingly, an Average Expected Pts score of 35.49 means that players whose Ceiling is 50 or more have had an average price on DraftKings of $8,000. Let’s keep that in mind as we move forward.

As you might expect, when a player has a very high Ceiling in a matchup, they tend to do well. Looking at the Plus/Minus, we can see that players have scored 2.37 fantasy points per-player, per-game above expectations when meeting these criteria.

Step 2: Projection Filters > Floor > Set “0-15”

 

Both the overall Plus/Minus and Consistency scores increase once we have applying the low Floor filter, which seems counterintuitive. Looking more closely though, notice that the Average Expected Pts total has dropped from 35.49 to 30.48. The new implied point total matches up with a DraftKings salary around $6,900.

Conclusion

So what does this mean exactly? Well, by adding the low Floor as a qualification, we are obviously taking on an increased risk by looking at this set of players. However, with the low Floor came a much lower price tag, which still keeping the high Ceiling intact. Over 875 results, that has more than balanced out, as we can see that the “Low Floor” subset actually scored an average of 0.4 more fantasy points per-player, per-game.

By looking at some of the recent matches, we can see that this Trend is not for the faint of heart.  However, it may be something to keep in mind for GPPs:

 

Specific to tonight’s slate, if we were to lower the Ceiling by one point down to 49, we’ll see an additional match, while keeping the Plus/Minus more or less the same, at +2.83.

Both Len and Monroe cost less than the average $6,900 price within the result set.  Normally, I wouldn’t deem that important – in this case though, we are looking at a fixed Ceiling of 50+, rather than something that is relative to salary, like Projected Plus/Minus.  So I do think it is notable that both of these players have a below average cost among those whose Ceiling is 50 or more fantasy points on a given night.