The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Boston Celtics – $12,800 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
The current leading MVP candidate is Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic. He is leading the league in points with a career-high 33.5 points per game, along with a 38.1% usage rate. Doncic also ranks fourth in assists and tied for second in most steals. He leads the Mavericks in all major categories and has a league-high four triple-doubles this season. It is tough to fade Doncic, who is on triple-double watch any given night.
A matchup against the Celtics doesn’t look as daunting as previous seasons. Despite a league-leading 13-4 record, the Celtics rank 16th in Defensive Rating (111.8) entering tonight’s games. Last year they led the league in both Defensive Rating and points allowed. Not having Robert Williams has really hurt their defense.
Doncic may be the most expensive player on the slate, but he is worth getting exposure to on this large slate.
Top Value: Shake Milton at Charlotte Hornets – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
The 76ers are running out of bodies, as James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid will all be out tonight. Shake Milton has taken over the starting point guard duties over the last two games and started the second half three games ago when Maxey left at halftime with an ankle injury. During that time, Milton is averaging 19.3 points and 32.1 DraftKings points per game while shooting 56.1% from the field and 50% from behind the arc.
Milton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position on both sites, as he has averaged a +14.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last three games. The 76ers have an implied total of only 105 points, but the Hornets have the third-worst record in the league and rank 20th in Defensive Rating this season.
Getting Milton at a reasonable price on both sites still makes him one of the best values on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anfernee Simons at Cleveland Cavaliers – $7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
The top two ceiling shooting guards in our Tournament Model are Donovan Mitchell and Anfernee Simons. They play against each other, and despite Simons being the much cheaper option, he has the higher ceiling between the two. The main reason is Damian Lillard will be out, so it will be the Simons show for the Trail Blazers. He has taken that next step in his game, averaging a career-high 22.9 points per game with a 27.4% usage rate.
Using our On/Off tool, with a 280-minute sample size, Simons leads the team with a +4.5% usage rate and a +4 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Lillard off the floor this season. Simons has scored 23 or more points in six-straight games as he ranks second behind Stephen Curry with 3.9 made 3-pointers per game. The matchup against the Cavaliers, who rank third in Defensive Rating, will be tough, but the volume for Simons will be high enough to overcome that.
Top Value: Terance Mann at Golden State Warriors – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Despite winning nine of their last 12 games, the Clippers are nine-point road underdogs against the Warriors tonight as both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be out. With both stars out, that is a lot of usage to go around. One of the main beneficiaries is shooting guard Terance Mann. He is the cheapest value play in this article and has popped a 30 DraftKings point upside recently with George and Leonard out.
Playing against the Warriors has been an exploitable spot as they rank 27th in Defensive Rating allowing 118.0 points per game, which ranks as the second-highest in the league. They also lead the league in Pace (102.96), entering tonight’s games. The Clippers may only have a 106.75 implied team total, but with George and Leonard out, it is worth getting exposure to one of the best and cheapest values on the slate with Terance Mann.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Dallas Mavericks – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The Celtics have the best record in the league at 13-4 and Jayson Tatum is the main reason why. He continues to get better year in and year out, as he is averaging a career-high 30.4 points per game this season. The only problem with Tatum tonight is he is questionable to play with an ankle sprain. It is rare to see Tatum miss a game, but make sure to monitor our news dashboard the closer we get to lock to see if Tatum is playing or not.
Playing against the Mavericks is normally a snooze fest, as they have the second-lowest Pace for back-to-back seasons. The Celtics are still four-point home favorites as Tatum leads the Celtics in points, assists, and blocks. He is shooting more 3-pointers this season than any other year, but his average field-goal attempts have remained the same. The pace of the Mavericks doesn’t allow for much production, but Tatum can find a way if he is playing.
Top Value: Marcus Morris at Golden State Warriors – $5,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
There are two more Clippers value players worth getting exposure to on this 12-game slate with George and Leonard out. Those two would be Norman Powell and Marcus Morris. Despite being only power forward eligible on DraftKings, Morris has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where he has small forward and power forward eligibility. There are enough good DraftKings plays on this slate. We need to show some love for FanDuel.
At $4,900, Morris has a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel despite having back-to-back clunker games. Through 16 games, Morris is averaging 14.4 points per game, which ranks second on the Clippers behind George in scoring. The veteran has scored double-digit points in 14 of his 16 games, despite the mix-ups with the Clippers’ starting lineup nearly every game. Prioritize Morris on FanDuel at his very cheap price tag.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Chicago Bulls – $12,300 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
After six-straight games of shooting below 46% from the field, Giannis Antetokounmpo finally broke through his cold streak last game scoring 37 points and shooting 16 of 24 from the field against the Trail Blazers. He still shot an abysmal 5 of 12 from the free throw line, but Giannis will look to get back to his old ways against the Bulls at home tonight. Khris Middleton remains out, but Bucks point guard Jrue Holiday is back to full strength.
Even when it seems like Giannis is struggling, he is still averaging over 30 points for the first time in his career and has posted a 1.73 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Bulls rank 10th in Defensive Rating, but this is a matchup that Giannis can exploit. Giannis has a double-double in 11 of his last 12 games against the Bulls, averaging 26.7 points and 13.1 rebounds per game while shooting 53.7% from the field.
It is impossible to stop the Greek Freak and the Bulls certainly don’t have the answer.
Top Value: Ben Simmons at Toronto Raptors – $6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
It took a while, but Ben Simmons is not only back in the Nets starting lineup, but he is finally thriving in this offense. Over the last three games, Simmons is averaging 16 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game while shooting 80.8% from the field. Playing alongside Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is starting to pay dividends, as Simmons’ numbers are way up. He even had three steals and three blocks last game against his former 76ers team.
Simmons has seen a major increase in salary on FanDuel, but not so much on DraftKings. At $6,100, Simmons has a 98% Bargain Rating as he has become a threat to triple-double whenever he touches the floor. The Nets are two-point road underdogs against the Raptors, but with no Pascal Siakam, they allowed 72 points in the paint in their last game.
Simmons has been way more aggressive on offense and needs to be prioritized on DraftKings tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,600 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
After missing three-straight games due to the COVID protocols, Nikola Jokic returned last night and led the team in points, rebounds, and assists while nearly posting a triple-double. The Nuggets lost by two points at home to the Pistons but will get a chance to bounce back tonight against another inferior opponent. Jokic played 37 minutes while shooting 12 of 16 from the field. He is healthy and one of the best pay-up options on the slate.
This is already the third game that Jokic will have faced the Thunder this season. In his previous two meetings, Jokic averaged a triple-double with 17 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 13.5 assists per game while shooting 63.2% from the field. The Thunder rank 27th in points allowed per game in the paint as they gave up 72 in their last game. There is a great chance that Jokic can make it three-straight triple-doubles against the Thunder tonight.
Top Value: Paul Reed at Charlotte Hornets – $3,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Similar to Simmons, Paul Reed needs to be prioritized on DraftKings with his $3,700 price tag and 99% Bargain Rating. With Embiid out last game, Reed came off the bench and played a season-high 31 minutes. He posted a double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds and even had three steals and two blocks for 42 DraftKings points. We’re going right back to Reed tonight in this back-to-back, especially on DraftKings.
The Hornets are not a great defensive team, and they allow 52.6 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 23rd in the league. They are a poor rebounding team, so this may be crazy, but Reed could have another double-double in back-to-back games. There are so many great pay-up options on this slate that are expensive but worth getting exposure to. Despite Reed being center-only eligible on both sites, he is great way to pay up for the studs.
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