The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Orlando Magic – $9,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Apparently, the Thunder have forgotten they are supposed to tank, as they have won three-straight games behind big performances from their point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Using our On/Off tool, with Josh Giddey off the floor last season Gilgeous-Alexander had a team-high +4.1% usage rate and a +4.9% DraftKings Plus/Minus. Giddey is still out tonight, making Gilgeous-Alexander the ceiling point guard on this slate.
The Thunder are 4.5-point home favorites against the Magic, who have a 1-6 record this season. Gilgeous-Alexander is the most expensive player on FanDuel but is just the third-most expensive point guard on DraftKings, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. He is averaging a career-high 31 points per game, while he has made 30-straight free throws to start the season.
Prioritize Gilgeous-Alexander as he continues to dominate without Giddey on the floor.
Top Value: Chris Paul vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Chris Paul may not be a cheap value, but he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings at the point guard position. Paul continues to lead the league in assists averaging 10.8 per game, which makes up for his lack of scoring and poor shooting thus far. He is a major double-double threat whenever he takes the floor, which helps his floor mainly on DraftKings with the bonus.
Playing the Timberwolves is a great spot to dish out double-digit dimes tonight as they lead the league allowing 29 assists per game. They also rank fourth in pace, so targeting Paul on this small slate should be a priority. With Deandre Ayton out due to injury, Paul should be looking to take more shots in this Suns offense. It is just a matter of if those shots will fall as he is only shooting 34.6% from the field and 23.8% from behind the arc.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Staying in the Suns’ backcourt, shooting guard Devin Booker is the main scoring threat for this team, averaging a career-high 29.3 points per game while shooting an absurd 52.9% from the field. It is rare to find a guard shooting that well from the floor, even through just six games. Booker has scored 30 or more points in four of his last five games while posting a team-high 29.8% usage rate while shooting over 20 field goals a game.
Booker is another Suns player who will benefit from Ayton being off the floor, especially when it comes to getting peripherals. Despite Paul leading the league in assists, Booker has also set a career-high. averaging 5.5 assists per game this season.
This is a great matchup to target this Suns’ backcourt. Expect a productive game from Booker on the perimeter as the Suns work outside to in playing without Ayton down low.
Top Value: Jalen Williams vs. Orlando Magic – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
The best value play in our Tournament Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Thunder rookie guard Jalen Williams. The 12th overall pick in last year’s draft had his coming out party last game playing 27 minutes while stuffing the stat sheet with 13 points, three rebounds, three assists, four steals, and one block. That was only the second game Williams has played all season, but it certainly has earned him more playing time moving forward.
Our model has Williams projected for 25.9 minutes tonight, which at these salaries, is going to really pop. This game may feature the lowest total on the slate at 215.5 points, but that shouldn’t matter when getting to Williams as a value option. Don’t be intimidated to play both Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander in the same lineup, especially on this small slate. Having a value play at shooting guard is the best position, so we can pay up for other studs at forward and center.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Chicago Bulls – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
With Ben Simmons out last game, we finally got to see Kevin Durant unleashed like last season, where he actually contributed in getting peripherals. We know Durant can score. He is averaging a career-high 32.4 points per game this season while shooting over 50% for the 10th straight year. However, adding Simmons has diminished his peripherals, but last night he had nine rebounds and seven assists.
The bad news is Simmons is expected back tonight, which does hurt the ceiling for Durant and Kyrie Irving. Even with that, Durant has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate and will be tough to ignore on this small slate. The Nets have the highest implied total on the slate at 116.75 points, as this game has a 232 total.
There is merit to going to a balanced lineup construction, but Durant can also explode, and raw points matter on this slate.
Top Value: Caleb Martin vs. Golden State Warriors – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Targeting a player from the Miami Heat is tough when they are all healthy, which is why we will look at a value option with Caleb Martin. In the starting lineup in every game that he has played, Martin has produced while playing a career-high 27.3 minutes per game. Despite playing alongside usage hogs Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, and Bam Adebayo, Martin has held his own with a mid-teens usage rate.
This hasn’t been a pleasant road trip for the Warriors so far, as they have lost back-to-back games against the Hornets and Pistons. Something is off with this Warriors team, and taking advantage might be the secret to success early in this season. They rank 25th in Defensive Rating (115.2), entering tonight’s games while allowing a league-high 122 points per game through seven games.
Martin is a cheap way to get exposure to this game.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns at Phoenix Suns – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Karl-Anthony Towns being power forward eligible has been a blessing and a curse to start the season. The extra flexibility on getting to one of the best offensive big men helps with our ceiling optimal lineups, however, playing alongside Rudy Gobert has really hurt his ability to rebound at a high rate. However, in his last four games, Towns has a positive Plus/Minus in each one on FanDuel while averaging 23.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.
Towns usage rate has dipped just below 25% this season, but he still has upside shown in his last game, where he had a double-double and scored over 50 DraftKings points. He is a matchup nightmare at the power forward position, and without Ayton in the middle, he should be able to get any shot that he wants. With Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell in tough matchups, this could be the night Towns gets all of the usage and puts on a slate-breaking performance.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Cameron Johnson continues to be underpriced on FanDuel, and with only power forward eligibility on DraftKings, he makes for the best value play at this position. Johnson has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in five of his six games while averaging over 30 FanDuel points in his last two games. He is still a weapon on DraftKings, given his 3-point abilities, but prioritize Johnson on FanDuel, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating.
Without Ayton in the lineup and Paul still referring to passing the ball more than scoring, Johnson benefiting the most of any Suns player last game. He shot a season-high 15 field goal attempts while scoring 19 points and grabbing seven rebounds. If he is going to take the next step in scoring and rebounding without Ayton, this is way too cheap of a salary on both sites.
Johnson could be a very sneaky value play with others going to Paul and Booker.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic at Brooklyn Nets – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Nikola Vucevic is the highest rated player in our model on DraftKings and is in the best game environment on the slate. Even though Zach LaVine is expected to play tonight, getting Vucevic at what feels like a discounted salary is a necessity tonight. Vucevic has incredible upside, shown by his 23 points and 19 rebounds performance last game. He also had an 18-point and 23-rebound performance earlier this season as LaVine played in both games.
Vucevic is averaging a double-double for the sixth-straight season despite shooting a career-low 43.2% from the field and only playing 31 minutes per game. Expect both numbers to rise throughout the season, and this is a great matchup to target the Bulls, as the Nets have the second-worst Defensive Rating to start the year. Their interior presence is lacking, and with Vucevic’s skill set, he can not only stretch the floor but finish in the paint.
Vucevic is one of the best plays on the slate tonight.
Top Value: Wendell Carter Jr. at Oklahoma City Thunder – $6,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
There are several cheap centers who all look about the same tonight, but we’ll pay up a little bit and get exposure to Wendell Carter Jr. Prioritize Carter Jr. on FanDuel, where he has dual eligibility and an 87% Bargain Rating. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he is averaging around 32 or more minutes a night. With most of the attention going to rookie Paolo Banchero, don’t forget Carter Jr., who is averaging nearly a double-double with 14.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per game.
The surprising Thunder have been solid defensively, but they are still allowing 53 points per game in the paint which ranks 24th in the league. This is a good spot to get to a low-owned Carter Jr., even if their point guard Jalen Suggs plays. He has three double-doubles in his seven games thus far, which is nice to get at this salary on both sites.
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