The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at San Antonio Spurs – $12,500 DraftKings
The biggest news on this five-game slate comes down to the health of Luka Doncic. He has dealt with hamstring soreness throughout the past week but has only missed one game. Doncic is questionable, but that didn’t slow him down Sunday night when he played 40 minutes and attempted 27 field goal attempts. If he is able to play, he has by far the highest projected ceiling in our Player model tonight. Doncic also has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 10 games.
The Mavericks have the highest implied total on the slate at 121.25 points. They are 8.5-point road favorites against the Spurs who continue to be an exploitable matchup for opposing players. The Spurs rank third in pace and 23rd in defensive rating this season. Given the matchup and how well Doncic has played all season, he is an elite pay-up option if he can play.
Top Value: Fred VanVleet at Washington Wizards – $8,600 DraftKings
With the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate, Fred VanVleet has been on a tear recently. He has captured a positive Plus/Minus in nine consecutive games. During that time, VanVleet is averaging 20.2 points, 9.4 assists, and 1.7 steals per game with four double-doubles. He has been incredibly consistent, which is great for cash games, and has displayed an upside that is worth getting exposure to in tournaments. Getting a double-double at $8,600 is always intriguing.
The cupcake matchup against the Wizards is going to make several Rockets players appealing tonight. They rank first in pace and dead last in defensive rating at 119.7 per game this season. The Rockets are nearly double-digit road favorites, implied for the second-highest total on the slate at 118.5 points. VanVleet looks like a fantastic option in all formats tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at San Antonio Spurs – $9,200 DraftKings
Kyrie Irving currently ranks in the top five in projected ceiling but would look even better if Luka Doncic was unable to play. In the six games that Irving has played without Doncic this season, he is averaging 31.5 points and 7.5 assists per game with a 31.6% usage rate. Even playing alongside Doncic, Irving has been a perfect addition to the Mavericks. In his first full season with them, Irving is shooting an efficient 49.5% from the field, 41.5% from deep, and 90.7% from the free-throw line.
Over his last three games, he has been excellent both as a scorer and distributor. He is averaging a double-double with 27.7 points and 10.3 assists per game. In his last game against the Spurs, even with Doncic in the lineup, Irving put on a show with 34 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds while shooting 15-for-22 from the field. He is impossible to ignore.
Top Value: Jordan Poole vs. Houston Rockets – $6,600 DraftKings
With so many injuries to the Wizards’ backcourt, Jordan Poole‘s move to the bench was short-lived. However, it did seem to give him a huge boost in confidence. Despite only playing 23 minutes last game, Poole is coming off a 31-point performance against the Celtics. He shot 12-for-29 from the field with a 41% usage rate. With Tyus Jones, Bilal Coulibaly, and Deni Avdija all out and Kyle Kuzma listed as questionable, Poole is going to get all of the usage rate that he can handle in this spot.
The Rockets have been playing much faster without their starting center Alperen Sengun. An increase in pace will provide more scoring opportunities for Poole. They are 9.5-point home underdogs, implied for only 109 points. If they are going to keep this game competitive, it will be because of Poole. He is projected to play 32 minutes and have a 29% usage rate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Denver Nuggets – $9,800 DraftKings
Running it back with Anthony Edwards after he put up another ceiling performance last night in the Timberwolves’ 10-point victory. He has accumulated over 50 DraftKings points in four consecutive games. During that time, he averaged 31.3 points, eight rebounds, and six assists per game while shooting an impressive 52.6% from the field. He has posted a 34% usage rate and also captured seven blocks and seven steals in those last four games, which increases his ceiling.
Karl-Anthony Towns remains out, while Rudy Gobert is in danger of missing his third-straight game. Given the matchup, expect Gobert to suit up tonight. However, with Towns off the floor this season, Edwards has a team-high +4.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +3.14% usage rate. In their only meeting with the Nuggets on November 1st, Edwards had a team-high 24 points in the Timberwolves’ 21-point win. Expect him to shine in a battle of two elite Western Conference teams tonight.
Top Value: Justin Champagnie vs. Houston Rockets – $4,200 DraftKings
Sticking with the Wizards’ value, Justin Champagnie has the highest Projected Plus/Minus by a comfortable margin on this five-game slate. In order to fit the expensive options tonight, Champagnie’s $4,200 price tag will come in handy. He has only played six games for the Wizards but started in their last game. He put up a near double-double with 14 points and eight rebounds against the Celtics. Projected to start again and play around 30 minutes, Champagnie has a 93% Bargain Rating.
Champagnie has averaged over 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, which is more than enough to exceed his $4,200 salary. Without Rockets starting center Alperen Sengun in the lineup, expect more rebounding opportunities for Champagnie. At his cheap salary, it should not be a surprise that he is drawing the highest projected ownership.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Zion Williamson at Brooklyn Nets – $8,700 DraftKings
Both Zion Williamson and Paolo Banchero look like strong pay-up options at the power forward position tonight. Despite being $300 cheaper on DraftKings, Williamson has the higher projected ceiling based on how he has played recently. Over his last six games, Williamson has a positive Plus/Minus in each game and is averaging 26.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 49.6 DraftKings points per game. Williamson leads the Pelicans this year in scoring and usage rate per game.
The Nets have been one of the most disappointing teams this season. With a 26-42 record and currently four games behind the last play-in spot, they are close to mailing it in. It has shown with their defense recently with the Nets allowing a league-high 60 points per game in the paint in their last three games. That bodes well for Williamson, who can dominate the paint.
Top Value: Jeremy Sochan vs. Dallas Mavericks – $5,800 DraftKings
Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league lately. Over his last nine games, Sochan has finished between 27 and 38 DraftKings points in each game. He has a positive Plus/Minus in eight of those nine games. Sochan’s ceiling hasn’t been put on display, but he is a fantastic cash-game option with small forward and power forward eligibility at only $5,800. Sochan has an 89% Bargain Rating and is easy to fit into any lineup build.
Sochan can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways, but does most of his damage scoring the ball and on the glass. This matchup sets up perfectly for both. The Mavericks are allowing 52 points per game in the paint, which ranks 22nd in the league. They are also 27th in rebounding percentage at 48.3%. Sochan could mess around and get a double-double tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Minnesota Timberwolves – $12,100 DraftKings
Nikola Jokic has been relatively disappointing lately, but has a near untouchable ceiling when he is playing at his peak. For example, Jokic has only averaged 44.8 DraftKings points per game in his last three games but posted a season-high 94.25 DraftKings points nearly one week ago. At any given moment, Jokic can find his way into the optimal lineup regardless of his salary or the matchup. If Luka Doncic is ruled out, Jokic will easily be the best play on the slate from a ceiling perspective.
In his only matchup against the Timberwolves early in the year, Jokic recorded a double-double with 25 points and 10 rebounds. This spot could look much different with Karl-Anthony Towns out and Rudy Gobert questionable after missing his last two games. If the current defensive player of the year favorite is out, Jokic will absolutely feast in this matchup tonight.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford at San Antonio Spurs – $5,400 DraftKings
Daniel Gafford has a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last seven games. In his first five games during that stretch, Gafford shot a perfect 33-for-33 from the field. Since joining the Mavericks at the trade deadline, Gafford is shooting a career-best 76% from the field. He has been thrust into the starting lineup, and that move has paid off. Gafford has played incredibly recently and has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position tonight. He is simply way too cheap on DraftKings.
Gafford will draw an incredible matchup against the Spurs frontcourt. Despite having the league leader in blocks per game, Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs rank 24th in rebounding percentage and 28th in points per game allowed in the paint. Nearly all of Gafford’s points come in the paint, so this spot is perfect. Expect a potential ceiling game from Gafford tonight.
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