The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Indiana Pacers – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
This seven-game slate has four strong pay-up options that have a projected ceiling over 63 points on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The best option at the point guard position is Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In a 31-point victory last game, he was barely needed playing only 27 minutes. He still scored 23 points and made a season-high five 3-pointers. With the Thunder favored by only six points, expect a better output from Gilgeous-Alexander tonight.
The Thunder have the highest-total on the slate at 123.5 points in the best game environment to target. Currently leading the league with 23.9 drives per game, Gilgeous-Alexander has an opportunity to dominate the Pacers who rank dead last in points allowed in the paint with 59.7 per game. This is a great spot to take one of the most aggressive players in the league.
Top Value: Fred VanVleet at San Antonio Spurs – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
The Rockets are popping across the industry with a ton of value options in their elite matchup against the Spurs. Starting point guard Fred VanVleet has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. In his first year with the Rockets, VanVleet has taken on a leadership role of getting his teammates involved. He is averaging a career-high eight assists per game and leads the team with 1.2 steals per game. He is a perfect fit for the young Rockets.
VanVleet has thrived in this matchup against the Spurs so far this season. In three games, he is averaging nearly a double-double with 20.3 points, nine assists, and six rebounds per game. The Rockets will be without center Alperen Sengun, who leads the team in points and rebounds. That will put more pressure on VanVleet to score, which bodes well for his outlook.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Los Angeles Clippers – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
The biggest news on the slate is going to be with the Timberwolves. Karl-Anthony Towns is out, but Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson, and Monte Morris are all listed as questionable to play tonight. If he plays, Edwards is in a great spot playing without Towns and potentially others. With just Towns off the floor this season, Edwards has a +3.29% usage rate and a +3.98 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He is only behind Morris in both stats, who is also questionable to play.
For the Timberwolves to maintain one of the top seeds in the Western Conference, it will need to be on the back of Edwards. He is averaging a career-high 26.3 points and 5.0 assists per game. The matchup against the Clippers isn’t ideal, but Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are both questionable, too. Edwards is a contrarian pay-up option that could look even better.
Top Value: Jalen Green at San Antonio Spurs – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Sticking with the Rockets value, Jalen Green has a team-high +9.43% usage rate and a +9.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Alperen Sengun off the floor this season. It helps that in his one game played without Sengun, Green recorded a 26-point, 14-rebound, 10-assist triple-double against the Hawks. He is exceptionally priced on FanDuel with shooting guard and point guard eligibility. He is $8,200 with a 96% Bargain Rating and is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate.
Most of Green’s production comes from scoring the rock. He has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer this season but will be unleashed without Sengun in the lineup. The Spurs are a perfect matchup for a Green ceiling game. They rank third in pace and allow 120.1 points per game. With an extremely high usage rate, he is arguably the best play on the slate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Utah Jazz – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday both missed the first leg of the Celtics back-to-back last night. Their status is up in the air for tonight, which would make Jayson Tatum look better than he already is. Tatum had a mediocre fantasy game last night in the Celtics’ comfortable 22-point victory over the Trail Blazers. He scored 26 points despite shooting a poor 9-for-23 from the field and 2-for-8 from behind the arc. If Tatum shoots just a little better tonight, he will easily exceed his price point.
After holding a winning record in the middle of January, the Jazz have now lost 16 of their last 22 games and have basically mailed in their playoff hopes. The Jazz rank 28th in defensive rating this year at 118.9 and just gave up 142 points against the Nuggets. If Porzingis and Holiday are out once again, Tatum will creep into the conversation as the best pay-up option.
Top Value: Dillon Brooks at San Antonio Spurs – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Projected for the highest ownership on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel at over 40%, Dillon Brooks is another Rockets value player worth getting exposure to. Brooks isn’t far behind Green with a +4.06% usage rate and a +6.52 DraftKings Plus/Minus when Alperen Sengun is off the floor. His game log is difficult to look at, but the price tag is incredibly appealing across the industry. Priced at $4,500 and below on both sites, Brooks is easy to fit into all lineup builds tonight.
Averaging 12.9 points per game, he has taken a scoring backseat with the Rockets. However, he has been more efficient, especially from long distance, shooting a career-best 37.8% from behind the arc. Opponents are shooting 38% from distance against the Spurs, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Brooks is a cheap way to get exposure to the Rockets.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Sacramento Kings – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
Priced just below $12,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the highest projected ceiling in our Players Model tonight. After a 34-point, 14-rebound, 12-assist triple-double against the Lakers, Giannis followed that up with a 34-point, 10-assist, seven-rebound performance against the Clippers. The Greek Freak is shooting a career-best 61.5% from the field this season while averaging 30.8 points per game. He is an elite pay-up option in all formats tonight.
The Bucks are two-point road favorites against the Kings in the second-best game environment on the slate. They are implied for 119.5 points, with the Kings ranking 26th in defensive rating since the All-Star Break. In his one game against the Kings this season, Giannis recorded a triple-double with 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists on 9-for-16 from the field.
Top Value: GG Jackson vs. Washington Wizards – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Given how poor the Grizzlies and Wizards are, this matchup is pretty intriguing from a fantasy perspective. Especially on the Grizzlies side with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. both ruled out. Even with Jackson Jr. playing last game, GG Jackson scored a career-high 30 points. He shot 10-for-19 from the field, including three 3-pointers and had a 28.4% usage rate. Projected to play around 31 minutes with a 27% usage rate, Jackson looks like a fantastic value play in all formats.
Leading the league in pace and ranking last in defensive rating, the Wizards are the best matchup for an opposing team. Even an inept offense like the Grizzlies should be able to take advantage of this matchup. Jackson filled it up against the Thunder and has a great opportunity for a repeat performance against the Wizards. He is simply priced a little too cheap.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,400 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
Domantas Sabonis and Victor Wembanyama are neck-and-neck for the top center position tonight. Both look like fantastic options, but Sabonis gets the slide nod. He is not playing on a back-to-back and gets the luxury of playing more minutes. It also helps that he leads the league with 22 triple-doubles. Sabonis also leads the league in rebounding and has 15 or more rebounds in five straight games. The Bucks have been a middle-of-the-road rebounding team, which bodes well for Sabonis.
In his only game against the Bucks this season, he had a massive triple-double with 21 points, 15 assists, and 13 rebounds. He finished with 67.25 DraftKings points while shooting a near-perfect 9-for-10 from the field. Despite having Giannis and Brook Lopez, the Bucks rank 20th in interior defense allowing 51.7 points per game in the paint this season.
Sabonis also leads the DraftKings slate with 13 Pro Trends.
Top Value: Trey Jemison vs. Washington Wizards – $4,100 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Searching for cheap value on this seven-game slate? Look no further than Grizzlies’ starting center Trey Jemison. The rookie from UAB has started in five games and played in 11 for the Grizzlies. He is projected to start and play around 26 minutes, which makes him one of the best values on the board. In his five starts, he is averaging 8.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game. He has scored double-digit points in three of his five starts and has 5+ rebounds in each game.
If there was ever a chance for Jemison to record a double-double it would be tonight. The Grizzlies continue to rank last in rebounding percentage at 45.7% and have allowed the second-most points in the paint at 59.3 per game. Jemison is the most popular center on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. He provides the ability to fit in several studs into a lineup.
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