The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Cleveland Cavaliers – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
Luka Doncic may not win the MVP award, but he has been the most consistent star in the fantasy streets this season. He leads the league in three major categories: scoring, usage rate, and DraftKings points per game. He is averaging a career-high 34.3 points per game while shooting 49.2% from the field. In his two games since returning from the All-Star Break, Doncic is averaging 37 points, 8.5 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game. He has the highest projected ceiling tonight.
The Cavaliers do present a difficult matchup with the second-best defense in the league. However, he had no problems in an earlier meeting this season. In a three-point home loss, Doncic stuffed the stat sheet with 39 points, seven rebounds, six assists, two blocks, and two steals. He has displayed the ability to be matchup-proof and is the top pay-up option.
Top Value: Dejounte Murray vs. Utah Jazz – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Dejounte Murray isn’t a cheap value play, but he is impossible to ignore with Trae Young sidelined. Murray has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Priced at $8,900 across the industry, Murray’s salary hasn’t been adjusted enough for Young out and this cupcake matchup against the Jazz. In six games without Young this year, Murray is averaging a near double-double with 26.2 points and nine assists per game. His usage rate jumps to 28.6%.
The Hawks and Jazz both rank in the top eight in pace, which will make for an up-tempo game environment. This matchup has the second-highest projected total at 236.5 points, which makes Murray look that much better. He has posted a near triple-double in back-to-back games without Young and will likely flirt with another tonight. He is drawing the second-most projected ownership on the slate, which is deserving due to his relatively cheap price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
The Minnesota Timberwolves are in the middle of a seven-game home stand, which bodes well for Anthony Edwards. Playing at home, Edwards is shooting 48.7% from the field, compared to just 45.3% on the road. He also may get the luxury of playing without Rudy Gobert, who is in danger of missing his second-straight game with an ankle injury. In two games without Gobert this year, Edwards has found success with an open lane, averaging 29 points and seven rebounds per game.
The Timberwolves are 13.5-point home favorites against the Spurs despite all three previous meetings ending in less than double-digit points. This game may be closer than the spread indicates, especially with the Spurs winning their last meeting. In that game, he finished with a 32-point, 12-assist double-double. The upside is there for a massive Edwards game.
Top Value: Bogdan Bogdanovic vs. Utah Jazz – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Sticking with the Hawks value, Bogdan Bogdanovic is another great option with Trae Young out. He is second in most minutes played without Young, behind Dejounte Murray. The playing time is what really spikes for Bogdanovic without Young. He moves into the starting lineup, and we have Bogdanovic projected to play 34 minutes tonight. He has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Bogdanovic and Murray can definitely be played together.
In the nine games that Bogdanovic has started this season, he is averaging 17.2 points per game with a 19.7% usage rate. With a 118-point implied team total, he should have no trouble filling it up against the weak Jazz defense. Making 3.1 3-pointers per game sets him up well in this matchup against the Jazz, who allow opponents to shoot 39.2% from deep.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Whenever the Celtics have a fully healthy roster, Jayson Tatum’s ownership will be in check. Tonight is no different, with Tatum projected for around 10% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel. Tatum continues to lead the Celtics in scoring, rebounding, and usage rate this season. He has recorded a points and rebound double-double in three of his last six games and has a great opportunity to add another one in this spot. The 76ers are a completely different team without Joel Embiid.
In the last month since Embiid was injured, the 76ers rank 27th in defensive rating and 19th in rebounding percentage. They have a putrid 7-16 without the reigning MVP in the lineup. It shouldn’t be a surprise the Celtics are 13.5-point favorites at home with their league-leading 26-3 record at home. Being a contrarian pay-up option, Tatum is worth getting exposure to.
Top Value: DeMar DeRozan vs. Detroit Pistons – $7,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Similar to Dejounte Murray, DeMar DeRozan is a little more expensive than most value plays but looks like an elite option in a matchup against the Pistons. DeRozan has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. He is drawing a slate-high 43% ownership on FanDuel and is very popular on DraftKings as well. The veteran has put together another great season, leading the Bulls in scoring and assists. He benefits greatly without Zach LaVine.
DeRozan has seen a dip in usage rate without LaVine in the lineup, but his efficiency and statistics all rise. In 31 games without LaVine this season, DeRozan is averaging 24 points and 5.7 assists per game while shooting better from the field. Pair that with the Pistons having the worst defensive rating in the league at 119.8, and DeRozan looks like a fantastic value.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Charlotte Hornets – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo has not displayed the same type of consistent ceiling that Luka Doncic has, but he does have the matchup advantage over his pricing peer tonight. Giannis will draw a juicy matchup against the Hornets, who are allowing 53.5 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 23rd in the league. Ironically, in his two previous meetings in this matchup, Giannis has found himself in major foul trouble. He is averaging 26 minutes per game with five fouls in each game.
Despite the limited playing time, he is still averaging a double-double and 1.58 DraftKings points per minute. If Giannis can keep his hands to himself, he will have no trouble dominating this matchup. The Hornets also rank 26th in rebounding percentage at 48.1%, so a ceiling game is on the table. Giannis has a 5% projected ownership, making him a contrarian play.
Top Value: Taylor Hendricks at Atlanta Hawks – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Priced at $4,100 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Taylor Hendricks has moved into the Jazz starting lineup since the All-Star Break. The rookie from UCF nearly had a double-double in his first start and followed that up with nine points before fouling out in his last start. Hendricks is projected to play around 27 minutes tonight, and that is more than enough time to pay off his cheap salary. He is power-forward only eligible on both sites, but this position is rather weak to begin with on tonight’s slate.
The Jazz have a poor defense, but surprisingly, the Hawks have been even worse. They rank 28th in defensive rating while playing at the fourth-fastest pace. The sample size is small for Hendricks. He has played double-digit minutes in 14 games and started in the last two. However, with the matchup and cheap salary, he is one of the best values on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama at Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Somehow, Victor Wembanyama is still priced under $10,000 on DraftKings. That cheap price tag is resulting in an 88% Bargain Rating and 11 Pro Trends. The consensus rookie of the year is playing some of the best basketball in the league right now. Over his last five games, Wembanyama is averaging a double-double with 24.2 points and 11.2 rebounds per game and a ridiculous 28 blocks. Even more impressive is that he is only playing 29 minutes per game during that stretch.
Playing against the league’s top defense has not phased the young phenom. In his three games against the Timberwolves, Wembanyama is averaging 21.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 49% from the field and 40% from downtown. Pair that with the chance that Rudy Gobert is unable to play, and he looks like an elite option.
Top Value: Nikola Vucevic vs. Detroit Pistons – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Nikola Vucevic continues to pop up in our models with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the center position on FanDuel and the second-highest behind Draymond Green on DraftKings. With power forward and center eligibility on DraftKings, Vucevic is easy to fit into all lineup builds. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last nine games with his only poor game against the elite Cavaliers frontcourt. During that time, he is averaging 21.4 points and 11.4 rebounds per game.
Vucevic will battle against Jalen Duren and the Pistons frontcourt, who are coming off a back-to-back against the Knicks last night. In their last meeting, Vucevic had no trouble with the Pistons with a 21-point, 12-rebound double-double. The Pistons are allowing the fifth-most points per game in the paint this season, making this a phenomenal spot for the veteran center.
