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NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, May 18): What Will Nikola Jokic Do Next?

Thursday features Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Nuggets held on to win Game 1 in a 132-126 track meet after leading at the half by 18 points. They are six-point home favorites again in Game 2, while the total has risen to 226 points after the shootout in Game 1. Both teams made adjustments in the second half, which we have to account for during this Game 2 DFS showdown article.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out Matt LaMarca’s article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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NBA DFS Stud Picks

After a 34-point, 21-rebound, 14-assist triple-double in Game 1, Nikola Jokic is the clear-cut best pay-up option on this showdown slate. Jokic shot 12-17 from the field and 3-3 from downtown last game, finishing with nearly 90 DraftKings points. Unsurprisingly, Jokic has the highest ceiling projection by a considerable margin in our NBA Models for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Jokic has recorded over 70 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine contests. He also has a triple-double in each of his last three games. It doesn’t matter what the Lakers do defensively; Jokic will be productive. Jokic is projected to have the highest usage rate among all players in this game tonight and has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Anthony Davis scored a playoff-high 40 points in Game 1 as he shot 14-23 from the field while pulling down 10 rebounds for his 10th postseason double-double. In the Warriors series, Davis was known for following up a great game with a dud, so we’ll see which Davis shows up tonight. He is second behind Jokic in ceiling projection for both sites.

Davis is best utilized on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating and can also display his defensive upside. During the playoffs, Davis has averaged 3.2 blocks and 1.5 steals per game to go along with his work as a scorer and on the glass. His versatility is a problem for Jokic, making this an exploitable matchup. Prioritize him on FanDuel for Game 2.

LeBron James had a near triple-double in Game 1 with 26 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists. His field goal attempts and usage rate have been down in the playoffs as the Lakers try to feed Davis as much as possible. However, James still has a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in seven-straight games. His ownership projection on both sites makes him a great contrarian play.

James leads the Lakers during the postseason in points and assists per game, and he also has one block in each of his last five games. He is only shooting 25% from behind the arc and failed to make a 3-pointer on four attempts in Game 1. If his perimeter shot starts to fall, he’s a candidate for increased production.

Jamal Murray is the cheapest stud option but has the highest Bargain Rating and second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Murray displayed some of his upside in Game 1 with 31 points, five rebounds, five assists, and three steals. He finished with 54.25 DraftKings points while shooting 12-20 from the field and 4-8 from behind the arc.

Compared to the regular season, Murray has increased his scoring in the playoffs by over six points per game while still averaging more than six assists and five rebounds. He is an enticing pay-up option due to his cheap price tag and his ability to catch fire scoring the ball. Playing Murray at the Captain and MVP slots opens up a lot of salary for the rest of your lineup.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Austin Reaves had a playoff-high 40 DraftKings points in Game 1, tallying five 3-pointers, 23 points, and eight rebounds. He played 42 minutes while leading the Lakers’ comeback with several 3-pointers down the stretch. His ability to create his own shot takes a lot of pressure off of James and Davis. His salary is way more inviting on DraftKings at $11,100 tonight.

Reaves also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

The king of tough shot-making, Michael Porter Jr. had a double-double in Game 1 with 15 points and 10 rebounds. It was his third double-double in his last five playoff games, as the Nuggets need his rebounding upside against this huge Lakers frontcourt. Porter is shooting over 40% from behind the arc, and 54.3% of his attempts come from downtown. That bodes well for Porter Jr. as the Lakers rank second-to-last among all playoff teams allowing 40.5 3-pointers attempted per game.

D’Angelo Russell may end up being the worst play on the slate if he is out of the starting lineup for Game 2. Make sure to monitor the starting lineup before deploying Russell in any format. Even if Russell starts, there is a chance that he could be limited with his playing time after only 26 minutes in Game 1. He is a liability on defense and a very streaky offensive scorer.

Aaron Gordon has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel despite a relatively poor Game 1 with 12 points, three rebounds, and three assists. With the Lakers adjusting their matchups to put Davis on Gordon, he will have several looks at corner 3-pointers tonight. He went 0-3 in Game 1 but shot over 42% from behind the arc in their last series. Prioritize Gordon on FanDuel, but he is a sneaky play with rebounding upside. He just needs to hit his open 3-pointers.

Bruce Brown was electric off the bench in Game 1 with 16 points on 6-11 shooting. Brown is another Nuggets player who looks better on FanDuel, leading the slate with a 95% Bargain Rating. He is projected to play around 25 minutes and be a critical part of the Nuggets’ bench, making him too cheap for his upside.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was incredible in Game 1, scoring 21 points on 9-17 shooting. His 17 field goal attempts were a playoff-high, but he’s scored 21 points in back-to-back games. He will get a ton of open looks with the Lakers’ defense focusing on Jokic and Murray, and he’s proven he can knock them down. Caldwell-Pope is a great value play on both sites.

Dennis Schroder had a mediocre Game 1, but being in the starting lineup boosts his projections and appeal as a value option. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the fourth-highest at the Captain spot on DraftKings. Schroder does take a backseat in the starting lineup, but he’s too cheap for his 32 projected minutes.

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NBA DFS Values & Punts

  • Lonnie Walker IV ($3,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): The hero of the Warriors series, Walker has scored double-digit points in three of his last five games. Walker can get hot from the perimeter, and he’s projected to play around 20 minutes once again in Game 2. He is shooting 40.7% from behind the arc during the playoffs and is a strong value option.
  • Rui Hachimura ($3,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Hachimura is the leading candidate to start for Russell, as the Lakers had a lot of success with him guarding Jokic and Davis playing free safety in the paint. If he starts, Hachimura is going to be a very popular Captain and MVP option, and he would be almost mandatory somewhere in your lineup. His cheap salary allows you to load up on a few studs.
  • Jeff Green ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): The following three players are all flier options, starting with Green. Green has double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last seven games and is projected to play around 18 minutes. He has very limited upside, but Green does provide salary relief in a stars-and-scrubs lineup build for both sites.
  • Jarred Vanderbilt ($2,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Since being exposed for his lack of perimeter shooting, Vanderbilt has seen his minutes decrease rapidly. Projected for only 10 minutes, Vanderbilt is mainly used for his defense and peripherals. He didn’t even attempt a shot in 10 minutes of Game 1. Only use Vanderbilt when in a pinch.
  • Christian Braun ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Braun played 12 minutes in Game 1 but scored fewer than double-digit DraftKings points for the sixth-straight game. The Lakers’ lack of 3-point defense makes Braun appealing, but he is another player who should only be used as a contrarian flyer.

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Thursday features Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Nuggets held on to win Game 1 in a 132-126 track meet after leading at the half by 18 points. They are six-point home favorites again in Game 2, while the total has risen to 226 points after the shootout in Game 1. Both teams made adjustments in the second half, which we have to account for during this Game 2 DFS showdown article.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out Matt LaMarca’s article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become a PRO Member

NBA DFS Stud Picks

After a 34-point, 21-rebound, 14-assist triple-double in Game 1, Nikola Jokic is the clear-cut best pay-up option on this showdown slate. Jokic shot 12-17 from the field and 3-3 from downtown last game, finishing with nearly 90 DraftKings points. Unsurprisingly, Jokic has the highest ceiling projection by a considerable margin in our NBA Models for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Jokic has recorded over 70 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine contests. He also has a triple-double in each of his last three games. It doesn’t matter what the Lakers do defensively; Jokic will be productive. Jokic is projected to have the highest usage rate among all players in this game tonight and has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Anthony Davis scored a playoff-high 40 points in Game 1 as he shot 14-23 from the field while pulling down 10 rebounds for his 10th postseason double-double. In the Warriors series, Davis was known for following up a great game with a dud, so we’ll see which Davis shows up tonight. He is second behind Jokic in ceiling projection for both sites.

Davis is best utilized on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating and can also display his defensive upside. During the playoffs, Davis has averaged 3.2 blocks and 1.5 steals per game to go along with his work as a scorer and on the glass. His versatility is a problem for Jokic, making this an exploitable matchup. Prioritize him on FanDuel for Game 2.

LeBron James had a near triple-double in Game 1 with 26 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists. His field goal attempts and usage rate have been down in the playoffs as the Lakers try to feed Davis as much as possible. However, James still has a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in seven-straight games. His ownership projection on both sites makes him a great contrarian play.

James leads the Lakers during the postseason in points and assists per game, and he also has one block in each of his last five games. He is only shooting 25% from behind the arc and failed to make a 3-pointer on four attempts in Game 1. If his perimeter shot starts to fall, he’s a candidate for increased production.

Jamal Murray is the cheapest stud option but has the highest Bargain Rating and second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Murray displayed some of his upside in Game 1 with 31 points, five rebounds, five assists, and three steals. He finished with 54.25 DraftKings points while shooting 12-20 from the field and 4-8 from behind the arc.

Compared to the regular season, Murray has increased his scoring in the playoffs by over six points per game while still averaging more than six assists and five rebounds. He is an enticing pay-up option due to his cheap price tag and his ability to catch fire scoring the ball. Playing Murray at the Captain and MVP slots opens up a lot of salary for the rest of your lineup.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Austin Reaves had a playoff-high 40 DraftKings points in Game 1, tallying five 3-pointers, 23 points, and eight rebounds. He played 42 minutes while leading the Lakers’ comeback with several 3-pointers down the stretch. His ability to create his own shot takes a lot of pressure off of James and Davis. His salary is way more inviting on DraftKings at $11,100 tonight.

Reaves also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

The king of tough shot-making, Michael Porter Jr. had a double-double in Game 1 with 15 points and 10 rebounds. It was his third double-double in his last five playoff games, as the Nuggets need his rebounding upside against this huge Lakers frontcourt. Porter is shooting over 40% from behind the arc, and 54.3% of his attempts come from downtown. That bodes well for Porter Jr. as the Lakers rank second-to-last among all playoff teams allowing 40.5 3-pointers attempted per game.

D’Angelo Russell may end up being the worst play on the slate if he is out of the starting lineup for Game 2. Make sure to monitor the starting lineup before deploying Russell in any format. Even if Russell starts, there is a chance that he could be limited with his playing time after only 26 minutes in Game 1. He is a liability on defense and a very streaky offensive scorer.

Aaron Gordon has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel despite a relatively poor Game 1 with 12 points, three rebounds, and three assists. With the Lakers adjusting their matchups to put Davis on Gordon, he will have several looks at corner 3-pointers tonight. He went 0-3 in Game 1 but shot over 42% from behind the arc in their last series. Prioritize Gordon on FanDuel, but he is a sneaky play with rebounding upside. He just needs to hit his open 3-pointers.

Bruce Brown was electric off the bench in Game 1 with 16 points on 6-11 shooting. Brown is another Nuggets player who looks better on FanDuel, leading the slate with a 95% Bargain Rating. He is projected to play around 25 minutes and be a critical part of the Nuggets’ bench, making him too cheap for his upside.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was incredible in Game 1, scoring 21 points on 9-17 shooting. His 17 field goal attempts were a playoff-high, but he’s scored 21 points in back-to-back games. He will get a ton of open looks with the Lakers’ defense focusing on Jokic and Murray, and he’s proven he can knock them down. Caldwell-Pope is a great value play on both sites.

Dennis Schroder had a mediocre Game 1, but being in the starting lineup boosts his projections and appeal as a value option. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the fourth-highest at the Captain spot on DraftKings. Schroder does take a backseat in the starting lineup, but he’s too cheap for his 32 projected minutes.

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NBA DFS Values & Punts

  • Lonnie Walker IV ($3,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): The hero of the Warriors series, Walker has scored double-digit points in three of his last five games. Walker can get hot from the perimeter, and he’s projected to play around 20 minutes once again in Game 2. He is shooting 40.7% from behind the arc during the playoffs and is a strong value option.
  • Rui Hachimura ($3,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Hachimura is the leading candidate to start for Russell, as the Lakers had a lot of success with him guarding Jokic and Davis playing free safety in the paint. If he starts, Hachimura is going to be a very popular Captain and MVP option, and he would be almost mandatory somewhere in your lineup. His cheap salary allows you to load up on a few studs.
  • Jeff Green ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): The following three players are all flier options, starting with Green. Green has double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last seven games and is projected to play around 18 minutes. He has very limited upside, but Green does provide salary relief in a stars-and-scrubs lineup build for both sites.
  • Jarred Vanderbilt ($2,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Since being exposed for his lack of perimeter shooting, Vanderbilt has seen his minutes decrease rapidly. Projected for only 10 minutes, Vanderbilt is mainly used for his defense and peripherals. He didn’t even attempt a shot in 10 minutes of Game 1. Only use Vanderbilt when in a pinch.
  • Christian Braun ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Braun played 12 minutes in Game 1 but scored fewer than double-digit DraftKings points for the sixth-straight game. The Lakers’ lack of 3-point defense makes Braun appealing, but he is another player who should only be used as a contrarian flyer.

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About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.