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NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, May. 14): Embiid Leads the Way

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Sunday features the only Game 7 of the second round between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Facing elimination, the Celtics went on the road to win Game 6 in a low\-scoring 95-86 slugfest. They have lost two of their three home games in this series, but they are still 6.5-point favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. With a 201-point game total, expect another slow-paced game as both teams try to value every possession.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out Matt LaMarca’s article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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NBA DFS Stud Picks

There is nothing like a Game 7, so expect these studs to play as many minutes as they can handle today.

MVP Joel Embiid has the highest ceiling on DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA Model, as his knee now looks close to full strength. Over the last four games of this series, Embiid is averaging a massive double-double with 30.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. Despite only shooting 40.2% from the field during that timeframe, Embiid still has a 35.1% usage rate.

The Celtics had the second-best defensive rating during the regular season, and that has carried over into the postseason, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Embiid is shooting this poorly. Regardless of his shooting woes, Embiid has displayed an upside that is tough to match. He is one of the best candidates for the Captain and MVP positions in this showdown slate.

Jayson Tatum isn’t far behind Embiid in terms of his ceiling projection, but he too has not shot well in recent games. Over his last four games, Tatum is averaging a double-double with 26.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. In Game 6, Tatum struggled for the first three quarters before exploding in the fourth quarter with 16 of his 19 points.

In five career Game 7s, Tatum has scored 20+ points in each game while averaging 8.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. He has shot 58.3% from behind the arc in each of his last three Game 7 performances. For a player who can get hot in a hurry, Tatum is a great pay-up option. The 76ers have the second-worst defensive rating during the second round of the playoffs, making this an exploitable matchup for Tatum. He is projected to play 42.1 minutes, which is the most in this game.

Figuring out which James Harden will show up has been the biggest question for the 76ers. He has two games scoring over 40 points in this series, while in the other four games Harden has failed to score more than 17 points. Harden has triple-double upside with his peripherals, which keeps his fantasy projections high even when his perimeter jump shot isn’t falling.

If ceiling Harden comes to play today, he is going to be one of the best Captain and MVP candidates. Given his Jekyll and Hyde performances, Harden needs to be a tournament-only play. Not only is Harden third behind Embiid and Tatum in projections, but he is also third in ownership. It is difficult to ignore that upside that he can bring in a winner-take-all Game 7.

Jaylen Brown has been the opposite of Harden in this series, where consistency is his best trait. Similar to Tatum, Brown struggled in Game 6 with only 17 points, but before that he scored between 23 and 25 points in every game. Being scoring-dependent, Brown is best utilized for cash games, as we haven’t seen the ceiling in this series that is needed for tournaments.

Among the four pay-up options, Brown has the highest projected Plus/Minus and the highest Bargain Rating on FanDuel. His $13,500 salary is easy to fit into all lineup builds and provides a nice discount from the other stud options. Brown’s usage rate isn’t far behind Tatum’s for the Celtics, but he does seem to take a backseat to Tatum when it is crunch time.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Similar to Harden, Tyrese Maxey has been inconsistent scoring the ball in this series. He is only shooting 40.2% from the field with three games over 25 points and three games under 15 points. With a less than 20% ownership on DraftKings, Maxey is a fantastic contrarian option. His salary may be a little high, but he has proven the ability to take over in this series.

One thing that is certain is Marcus Smart always shows up when the Celtics’ backs are against the wall. He had a game-high 22 points with seven rebounds and seven assists in Game 6, playing 42 minutes while shooting 53.3% from the field. A repeat performance is on the table for Smart ,who will be popular on both sites with his friendly salary.

After a massive double-double in Game 5 with 16 points and 11 rebounds, Tobias Harris couldn’t hit anything in Game 6 and shot just 1-for-7 from the field. He did stuff the stat sheet with six rebounds, three assists, two steals, and two blocks, but in order for Harris to display his upside he will need to hit shots. Harris will play around 40 minutes, boosting his projections.

Al Horford dominated the glass in Game 6, pulling down a team-high 11 rebounds, but he was still unable to hit many shots. In the last two games, Horford is just 1-for-12 from the field and 0-for-9 from behind the arc. Prioritize Horford on FanDuel, where he is only $9,000 and has the highest Bargain Rating in this game at 95%. He has double-double upside if his shot is falling.

With the Celtics struggling to score in Game 6, Malcolm Brogdon stepped up and hit four huge 3-pointers to finish with 16 points while shooting 54.5% from the field and 66.7% from downtown. Brogdon has 15+ points in five of six games in this series and is shooting 55.3% from behind the arc. Besides the studs, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Robert Williams drew the start in Game 6 for the first time in this playoffs, and he poured in a near double-double with 10 points and nine rebounds. It was by far his best game of the series, so expect the Celtics to keep Williams in the starting lineup after they held the 76ers to only 86 points. With his 27-minute projection, Williams is a little too cheap on both sites.

Derrick White was the player who dropped out of the starting lineup, which ultimately dropped his playing time to only 19 minutes last game. He played 27+ minutes in his previous five games, all starts, so it is hard to project where he will land today. He still scored nearly a DraftKings point per minute, but he may be a tournament-only play with the uncertainty of his playing time.

De’Anthony Melton has two ceiling games in this series where he finished with 27 and 37 DraftKings points. He is another 76ers player who has been inconsistent, but he is still averaging 24.2 minutes per game in this series. Over half of his field-goal attempts come from behind the arc, so he always has the chance to get hot, which would make it easy to pay off his salary.

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NBA DFS Values & Punts

  • P.J. Tucker ($3,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Surprisingly, Tucker played a series-low 20 minutes in Game 6 without being in foul trouble. Ironically, he had his best fantasy output with 19 DraftKings points, as Tucker finished with eight points, three steals, two rebounds, and one assist. The heartbeat of the 76ers is projected to play 33 minutes, making him a great value option on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
  • Danuel House Jr. ($2,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): House Jr. arrived in Game 5 with 10 points and five rebounds off the bench, which has solidified his spot in the rotation, basically flip-flopping spots with Jalen McDaniels. If the 76ers look sluggish, they will go to House Jr. – a high-energy player who isn’t afraid to push the pace and hunt his shot.
  • Paul Reed ($2,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Backing up Embiid, Reed has seen his minutes plummet after his 37-minute Game 1 when Embiid sat out. Reed has played under 10 minutes in each of the last four games, but he is a good DraftKings points per minute player. He is nothing more than a dart throw if Embiid surprisingly gets in foul trouble.
  • Grant Williams ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Williams is the ultimate tournament play, as his minutes have been sporadic the entire postseason. He didn’t see the floor in Game 6, as the Celtics only ran out seven players. There is a chance he may not play again, so like Reed, Williams is a dart throw at best in tournaments. Don’t get overexposed.
  • Georges Niang ($2,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): “Bang, Bang, Niang” has lived up to his nickname, as he has made nine of his 19 (47.4%) 3-point attempts in this series. Niang provides no peripherals, as he is a scoring-dependent fantasy producer with around 80% of his field-goal attempts coming from behind the arc. Prioritize Niang on DraftKings, as he has made at least one 3-pointer in five of the first six games and two or more in three of his last four.

Sunday features the only Game 7 of the second round between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Facing elimination, the Celtics went on the road to win Game 6 in a low\-scoring 95-86 slugfest. They have lost two of their three home games in this series, but they are still 6.5-point favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. With a 201-point game total, expect another slow-paced game as both teams try to value every possession.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out Matt LaMarca’s article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

NBA DFS Stud Picks

There is nothing like a Game 7, so expect these studs to play as many minutes as they can handle today.

MVP Joel Embiid has the highest ceiling on DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA Model, as his knee now looks close to full strength. Over the last four games of this series, Embiid is averaging a massive double-double with 30.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. Despite only shooting 40.2% from the field during that timeframe, Embiid still has a 35.1% usage rate.

The Celtics had the second-best defensive rating during the regular season, and that has carried over into the postseason, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Embiid is shooting this poorly. Regardless of his shooting woes, Embiid has displayed an upside that is tough to match. He is one of the best candidates for the Captain and MVP positions in this showdown slate.

Jayson Tatum isn’t far behind Embiid in terms of his ceiling projection, but he too has not shot well in recent games. Over his last four games, Tatum is averaging a double-double with 26.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. In Game 6, Tatum struggled for the first three quarters before exploding in the fourth quarter with 16 of his 19 points.

In five career Game 7s, Tatum has scored 20+ points in each game while averaging 8.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. He has shot 58.3% from behind the arc in each of his last three Game 7 performances. For a player who can get hot in a hurry, Tatum is a great pay-up option. The 76ers have the second-worst defensive rating during the second round of the playoffs, making this an exploitable matchup for Tatum. He is projected to play 42.1 minutes, which is the most in this game.

Figuring out which James Harden will show up has been the biggest question for the 76ers. He has two games scoring over 40 points in this series, while in the other four games Harden has failed to score more than 17 points. Harden has triple-double upside with his peripherals, which keeps his fantasy projections high even when his perimeter jump shot isn’t falling.

If ceiling Harden comes to play today, he is going to be one of the best Captain and MVP candidates. Given his Jekyll and Hyde performances, Harden needs to be a tournament-only play. Not only is Harden third behind Embiid and Tatum in projections, but he is also third in ownership. It is difficult to ignore that upside that he can bring in a winner-take-all Game 7.

Jaylen Brown has been the opposite of Harden in this series, where consistency is his best trait. Similar to Tatum, Brown struggled in Game 6 with only 17 points, but before that he scored between 23 and 25 points in every game. Being scoring-dependent, Brown is best utilized for cash games, as we haven’t seen the ceiling in this series that is needed for tournaments.

Among the four pay-up options, Brown has the highest projected Plus/Minus and the highest Bargain Rating on FanDuel. His $13,500 salary is easy to fit into all lineup builds and provides a nice discount from the other stud options. Brown’s usage rate isn’t far behind Tatum’s for the Celtics, but he does seem to take a backseat to Tatum when it is crunch time.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Similar to Harden, Tyrese Maxey has been inconsistent scoring the ball in this series. He is only shooting 40.2% from the field with three games over 25 points and three games under 15 points. With a less than 20% ownership on DraftKings, Maxey is a fantastic contrarian option. His salary may be a little high, but he has proven the ability to take over in this series.

One thing that is certain is Marcus Smart always shows up when the Celtics’ backs are against the wall. He had a game-high 22 points with seven rebounds and seven assists in Game 6, playing 42 minutes while shooting 53.3% from the field. A repeat performance is on the table for Smart ,who will be popular on both sites with his friendly salary.

After a massive double-double in Game 5 with 16 points and 11 rebounds, Tobias Harris couldn’t hit anything in Game 6 and shot just 1-for-7 from the field. He did stuff the stat sheet with six rebounds, three assists, two steals, and two blocks, but in order for Harris to display his upside he will need to hit shots. Harris will play around 40 minutes, boosting his projections.

Al Horford dominated the glass in Game 6, pulling down a team-high 11 rebounds, but he was still unable to hit many shots. In the last two games, Horford is just 1-for-12 from the field and 0-for-9 from behind the arc. Prioritize Horford on FanDuel, where he is only $9,000 and has the highest Bargain Rating in this game at 95%. He has double-double upside if his shot is falling.

With the Celtics struggling to score in Game 6, Malcolm Brogdon stepped up and hit four huge 3-pointers to finish with 16 points while shooting 54.5% from the field and 66.7% from downtown. Brogdon has 15+ points in five of six games in this series and is shooting 55.3% from behind the arc. Besides the studs, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Robert Williams drew the start in Game 6 for the first time in this playoffs, and he poured in a near double-double with 10 points and nine rebounds. It was by far his best game of the series, so expect the Celtics to keep Williams in the starting lineup after they held the 76ers to only 86 points. With his 27-minute projection, Williams is a little too cheap on both sites.

Derrick White was the player who dropped out of the starting lineup, which ultimately dropped his playing time to only 19 minutes last game. He played 27+ minutes in his previous five games, all starts, so it is hard to project where he will land today. He still scored nearly a DraftKings point per minute, but he may be a tournament-only play with the uncertainty of his playing time.

De’Anthony Melton has two ceiling games in this series where he finished with 27 and 37 DraftKings points. He is another 76ers player who has been inconsistent, but he is still averaging 24.2 minutes per game in this series. Over half of his field-goal attempts come from behind the arc, so he always has the chance to get hot, which would make it easy to pay off his salary.

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NBA DFS Values & Punts

  • P.J. Tucker ($3,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Surprisingly, Tucker played a series-low 20 minutes in Game 6 without being in foul trouble. Ironically, he had his best fantasy output with 19 DraftKings points, as Tucker finished with eight points, three steals, two rebounds, and one assist. The heartbeat of the 76ers is projected to play 33 minutes, making him a great value option on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
  • Danuel House Jr. ($2,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): House Jr. arrived in Game 5 with 10 points and five rebounds off the bench, which has solidified his spot in the rotation, basically flip-flopping spots with Jalen McDaniels. If the 76ers look sluggish, they will go to House Jr. – a high-energy player who isn’t afraid to push the pace and hunt his shot.
  • Paul Reed ($2,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Backing up Embiid, Reed has seen his minutes plummet after his 37-minute Game 1 when Embiid sat out. Reed has played under 10 minutes in each of the last four games, but he is a good DraftKings points per minute player. He is nothing more than a dart throw if Embiid surprisingly gets in foul trouble.
  • Grant Williams ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Williams is the ultimate tournament play, as his minutes have been sporadic the entire postseason. He didn’t see the floor in Game 6, as the Celtics only ran out seven players. There is a chance he may not play again, so like Reed, Williams is a dart throw at best in tournaments. Don’t get overexposed.
  • Georges Niang ($2,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): “Bang, Bang, Niang” has lived up to his nickname, as he has made nine of his 19 (47.4%) 3-point attempts in this series. Niang provides no peripherals, as he is a scoring-dependent fantasy producer with around 80% of his field-goal attempts coming from behind the arc. Prioritize Niang on DraftKings, as he has made at least one 3-pointer in five of the first six games and two or more in three of his last four.

About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.