Friday features a critical Game 6 between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. The Knicks have a 3-2 series lead with a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals tonight. They are 5.5-point road underdogs, while this game is still getting a respectable 215.5 points. Expect an electric atmosphere in Indiana with the Pacers playing with their backs against the wall. Will they be able to force a Game 7?
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
After a few mediocre games in a row, Jalen Brunson bounced back in Game 6 with 44 points, seven assists, and four rebounds. It took him 35 field goal attempts and a 43.5% usage rate to get to that total, but that is the luxury when drafting Brunson. He is going to have the ball in his hands for every Knicks’ possession. Brunson has the highest projected ceiling by a comfortable margin in our Player model.
Projected to play 42 minutes tonight, Brunson has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position. He is a fantastic play in all formats at either the captain or utility spot. It is difficult to get away from a player with this high of a usage rate and someone who has scored 40+ points in five of his last eight playoff games. In his last road closeout game, Brunson recorded a 41-point, 12-assist double-double.
Tyrese Haliburton has been inconsistent all series but has displayed an upside worth getting exposure to. In Games 2 and 3, Haliburton averaged over 60 DraftKings points per game. In the other three games, he failed to reach 40 DraftKings points in each contest. Which Haliburton shows up is anyone’s guess, but he can easily be the top scorer on this showdown slate. He can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways.
Haliburton has shot 55.1% from the field and 43.9% from behind the arc in his last four games, but his usage rate has fluctuated. In his last three below-average performances, Haliburton had a measly 13.9% usage rate compared to his 28.4% usage rate in his two ceiling games. Playing at home with his back against the wall, expect another ceiling game from the Pacers’ All-Star. He won’t go down without a fight.
After being a non-factor in the Knicks’ Game 4 loss, Josh Hart got back to his old ways with his fourth double-double of the series, recording 18 points and 11 rebounds in Game 5. Hart continues to dominate the Pacers on the glass. During the regular season, the Pacers had a 49.2% rebounding percentage, which ranked 24th in the league. This postseason has been even worse with a 48.7% rebounding percentage.
A double-double at this point feels automatic for Hart, considering the matchup and the fact that the Knicks are still playing without Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson. Hart is projected to play a game-high 43 minutes, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he played all 48 like he did in the first two games. Take Game 4 out of the equation, and Hart has been easily the most consistent pay-up option.
The last stud in this showdown slate is Pacers’ forward Pascal Siakam. It has been a much more difficult series for Siakam, who is averaging fewer points, rebounds, and assists per game compared to his series against the Bucks. However, he is shooting 52.8% from the field and 40% from deep. Being able to avoid OG Anunoby has made this matchup easier. He has scored over 20 points in two of his last three games.
Since joining the Pacers in the middle of January, Siakam has led the team in scoring and rebounding. He has carried that success into the postseason. Siakam hasn’t recorded a double-double in this series yet, but he has been close. The Knicks have been a fantastic rebounding team despite not having key pieces in their frontcourt. Siakam has potential, especially if his usage rate reaches over 30% again for Game 6.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Donte DiVincenzo has been the model for a boom-or-bust fantasy option in this series. He averaged 29.3 points and six made 3-pointers per game in the first three games and only 7.5 points and only one made 3-pointer in the last two. DiVincenzo is an elite tournament option. If his shot is falling, he will make his way into the optimal lineup. If not, that lineup will be lucky to cash. Get your exposure at your own risk.
Myles Turner has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus behind Brunson. Turner has been locked in during the Pacers’ playoff run. He is averaging a playoff-high 17.6 points per game while shooting 49.3% from the field and 45.3% from long distance. Both of those percentages have risen in this series. Turner’s ability to stretch the floor has been critical to the Pacers’ success. He is an incredible play in all formats.
Not only has Josh Hart dominated the glass against the Pacers, but so has Isaiah Hartenstein. He hauled in an absurd 12 offensive rebounds and 17 total rebounds in Game 5. Hartenstein added seven points and five assists totaling nearly 40 DraftKings points. He has displayed inconsistency at times in this series, but his upside at a cheap $7,200 salary is impossible to ignore. Hartenstein is a strong value play tonight.
TJ McConnell has seen his salary jump all over the place during this series, especially after posting his two points-and-assists double-doubles. Sitting at $6,000 tonight, McConnell is quite expensive but has shown the ability to pay off his price tag. This is a fantastic tournament slate given all of these players (including McConnell) have such a wide range of outcomes. His higher price tag is keeping his ownership in check.
Aaron Nesmith has averaged 19.9 DraftKings points per game in this series through five games. He is projected to play around 34 minutes, which should be more than enough time for him to return value on his $5,600 price tag. Nesmith’s usage rate will continue to be in the low teens, but his playing time in competitive games is secure due to his defense. He is a steady play that will be a cash game option.
Similar to Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard is another Pacers role player who has been extremely consistent in their first five games of this series. Nembhard has finished with between 17 and 21 DraftKings points in every game. Projected to start and play around 28 minutes tonight, Nembhard will likely return a similar value, making him a strong cash-game play. His upside at $5,200 may not be worth it in tournaments.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Miles McBride ($4,800): After a great Game 4, Miles McBride drew the start for Game 5 and did not disappoint with 17 points. He has made three 3-pointers in back-to-back games and scored double digits in three straight games. Projected to start again and play around 36 minutes, McBride is easily the best value play on the slate. His cheap salary even makes him a candidate for the captain slot.
- Alec Burks ($4,400): Alec Burks has been a major spark plug off the bench for the Knicks. Over his last three games, he has been on a scoring frenzy similar to McBride. He is averaging 17.3 points per game while shooting 53.6% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. Burks has also added at least four rebounds in each of his last three games. He is another elite value play at his $4,400 salary.
- Obi Toppin ($4,200): Obi Toppin is at his lowest price point of the series. That in itself is intriguing due to how active he is when he is on the court. Projected for over a 20% usage rate, Toppin is going to look like a great play in all formats. Even projected for fewer than 20 minutes tonight, Toppin is easy to fit into all lineups and has displayed an upside worth getting exposure to already in this series.
- Precious Achiuwa ($3,800): Precious Achiuwa did not start last game but ironically had his best game of the series. His playing time did not diminish, and Achiuwa stuffed the stat sheet in Game 5 with four points, five rebounds, two assists, two steals, and two blocks. Despite probably not starting again tonight, Achiuwa is still projected to play around 22 minutes and be valuable off the bench.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,800): Pacers backup shooting guard Ben Sheppard is a live-and-die-by-the-3-pointer value play. Over 70% of his field goal attempts in this series have come from behind the arc. He is shooting 44.4% from long distance, and this is a great matchup for perimeter shooting. The opportunities may come and go, but that is the risk you take when rostering a $2,800 sharpshooter.
- Isaiah Jackson ($2,400): Projected for a game-low 13 minutes tonight, Isaiah Jackson is the last punt play worth targeting. After averaging 15 minutes per game in the first four games, Jackson took a back seat in Game 5 with only six minutes. His playing time makes him the biggest risk on the slate. However, on a positive note, Jackson is still averaging 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in this series.
