Thursday features a pair of Game 6’s starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
James Harden has had a Jekyll and Hyde shooting performance during this series. However, he has back-to-back games averaging nearly a triple-double with 29.5 points, 9.5 assists, and eight rebounds while shooting 64.5% from the field and 63.6% from behind the arc. Harden also recorded six steals over that time with only three turnovers. He leads the entire slate with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
The 76ers are one win away from finally getting past the Celtics and into the Eastern Conference Finals. They are 2.5-point home underdogs with the lowest total on the slate at 105 points. Surprisingly, the Celtics have the third-worst Defensive Rating (114) among the remaining eight playoff teams. Harden is best suited for tournaments with his inconsistent play, but he remains a priority on DraftKings with an 88% Bargain Rating.
Value
Chris Paul remains out with a groin injury, keeping Cameron Payne in the Suns’ starting lineup. Priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Payne is the best value play on the slate. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel among all players and the third-highest on DraftKings. Payne plays much faster and better at home, boosting his outlook for tonight’s game.
Payne is expected to be the most popular play on this slate, checking in with 75% projected ownership on FanDuel and 60% on DraftKings. Payne hasn’t done much in his three starts during the playoffs, averaging 6.3 points, 4.7 assists, one steal, and 16.7 DraftKings points per game. That said, his salary across the industry is too cheap for the number of minutes he is projected to play.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray has made 13 field goals in three of the five games in this series, two of which came on the road in Phoenix, where he averaged 30 points per game. Playing alongside Nikola Jokic limits the peripherals for all the Nuggets’ players, but Murray has done a solid job averaging seven rebounds and five assists vs. the Suns. Like Harden, Murray is a little too cheap on DraftKings at $8,200.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Murray’s 3-point prospects:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Devin Booker has continued his phenomenal shooting display during the postseason, shooting 60.1% from the field and 51.7% from behind the arc while averaging 35.9 points per game. He leads the team with a 29.5% usage rate while playing an absurd 42.3 minutes per game. Booker will need to have another heroic performance in Game 6 to avoid elimination. It is hard to envision Booker not having a monster game, especially playing at home.
In five home playoff games this postseason, Booker is averaging 38.8 points per game while shooting 69.4% from the field and 55.2% from downtown. This has been an exploitable matchup for Booker, scoring at all three levels. Paul being out for Game 6 will continue to boost the ceiling for Booker, who is playing the best basketball of his career.
Value
Celtics’ starting shooting guard Derrick White is another cheap guard worth exposure on both sites. White has played 30+ minutes in four-straight games while averaging 11.8 points per game over that time. However, White has failed to record an assist in back-to-back games, and his usage rate has taken a significant dip, which is why his fantasy scores are down. We saw his upside displayed in round one but have yet to see it in this series.
In his first full season with the Celtics, White has been a valuable playoff asset averaging 14.1 points per game while playing the fourth-most minutes on the team. White has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus for shooting guards behind Payne and teammate Jaylen Brown. Priced at $5,000 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings, White is a great way to get exposure to the Celtics’ offense without breaking the bank.
Fast Break
Speaking of Brown, he has scored between 23 and 25 in each of the Celtics’ past five games despite shooting 57.1% from the field and 42.9% from downtown. His ceiling seems to be limited despite having a 27.6% usage rate. A big reason why is his rebounding has been down considerably in the playoffs. Brown may be best utilized in cash games, given how consistent he has been thus far. He would need to take more than 15.4 field goals per game to display his ceiling.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Kevin Durant is right behind Booker in usage rate and scoring while leading the Suns with 42.9 minutes per game. It wouldn’t be surprising if Durant played all 48 tonight with the Suns facing elimination. With Paul off the floor this season and during the playoffs, Durant has a team-high +6.15% usage rate differential. Durant has also recorded back-to-back double-doubles with 11 rebounds per game.
Not only is Paul out, but Deandre Ayton is listed as questionable with a rib injury. If he were to sit, that would boost Durant’s rebounding upside even more. It would be shocking to see Ayton sit, but keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. Durant has made double-digit field goals in each game of this series, and like Booker, it will take another massive game for the Suns to win tonight. It helps they have the highest implied total on the slate at 114.75 points.
Value
Tobias Harris has been the third option at best for the 76ers’ offense but is coming off his first double-double of the series in Game 5, finishing with 16 points and 11 rebounds. With a usage rate in the mid-teens, Harris needed his peripherals to rise to return value, and he has done that thus far. Through seven playoff games, Harris is second on the team in rebounding at 7.7 per game with three double-doubles.
Despite being a little more expensive on FanDuel than DraftKings, Harris is projected to be the highest-owned player on FanDuel at 65%. He is easy to fit in all lineup builds at $6,000 with small forward and power forward eligibility. Harris has shot over 50% in all but one game of this series, so if he can stay out of the foul trouble that has plagued him recently, the upside is there for another big game at a cheap price tag.
Fast Break
After a lackluster first two games of this series, Michael Porter Jr. has caught fire from behind the arc, and he’s also become more involved as a rebounder. In his last three games, Porter Jr. is averaging a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds per game while making 13 total 3-pointers. With the upside to get hot from the perimeter and double-digit rebound potential, Porter Jr. looks like a great value in the midrange.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
With their backs against the wall, expect Jayson Tatum to come out firing like he did in Game 5. Tatum attempted a playoff-high 27 field goals and 13 free throws as he had a ridiculous 39.8% usage rate. He finished with another double-double with 36 points and 10 rebounds, and he’s recorded back-to-back games with 60+ DraftKings points. During this postseason, Tatum has averaged a double-double with 26.9 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
The 76ers have the worst Defensive Rating (120.6) among the remaining playoff teams, and there is a reason the Celtics are road favorites despite facing elimination. Tatum will play 40+ minutes and be involved in nearly all of the Celtics’ offensive action. If his perimeter shot starts to fall, Tatum can have another ceiling game tonight. Tatum is the most popular pay-up option on FanDuel but is an intriguing contrarian pay-up play on DraftKings.
Value
The Suns desperately need someone to step up offensively to take some of the burden off of Durant and Booker. T.J. Warren could be that guy, as he logged his highest usage rate (20.6%) in the playoffs last game. After barely seeing the floor to start the playoffs, Warren has averaged 20 minutes over the last three games as the Suns are looking for a spark off the bench. Getting that playing time provides upside at his salary.
We all remember what Warren did in the bubble, but he hasn’t played much since then. Despite not knowing how much Warren has left in the tank, he is priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, providing elite salary savings in a stars and scrubs lineup build. Warren has averaged 11.6 DraftKings points per game in his last three games, which isn’t a lot, but it’s enough to provide value on a small two-game slate.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has recorded a positive FanDuel Plus/Minus in six of his last seven games. Gordon’s minutes and production have been consistent all series, making him a strong cash-game option on FanDuel. Playing for the Nuggets has catapulted his career from an efficiency standpoint, as he shot a career-best 56.7% from the field during the regular season.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic recorded his second triple-double of this series in Game 5 with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 assists. He has dominated the Suns’ frontcourt, and tonight should be no different. Unsurprisingly, Jokic has the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models for DraftKings and FanDuel. Jokic has averaged 75.75 DraftKings points over his last four games. He is the safest player in cash games and has the highest upside in tournaments.
The Suns have the worst Rebounding Percentage (46.6%) in the second round of the playoffs, giving Jokic another potential way to dominate Game 6. He has already proven that he can slice and dice the Suns’ defense with his fantastic passing while scoring 53 points in Game 4. It is hard to imagine Jokic not having 70+ DraftKings points tonight in this matchup.
Value
Deandre Ayton is once again the best value center on the slate. He has yet to record a double-double in this series but has been very close, averaging 10.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Ayton has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings for all centers. He is questionable to play with a rib injury, and if he were to sit, Jock Landale would become one of the best values of the day.
Not having Paul has plummeted Ayton’s usage rate. In five games against the Nuggets in this series, Ayton has yet to have a usage rate of 20% or higher and hasn’t scored more than 14 points. After being called out for rebounding, Ayton has provided upside in that department, but he is still below what he was averaging during the first round and the regular season. The most intriguing part about this play is Ayton’s salary, which continues to drop on both sites.
Fast Break
MVP Joel Embiid finally got cooking from deep, making three of his seven 3-point attempts in Game 5. He has averaged 57.9 DraftKings points per game over the last three games, as his knee looks much healthier. Over that time, he is averaging 32 points and 11 rebounds with a 36.7% usage rate. Embiid is starting to find his groove against the Celtics’ drop-coverage defense, but he still doesn’t have quite the upside of Jokic in this matchup.
