Thursday night features a pair of huge Game 2 matchups as the NBA playoffs keep rolling. The top seed in each conference, the Celtics and the Thunder, are looking to go up 2-0 after convincing wins on Tuesday, while the Cavs and Mavs are out to prove the series will be no pushover and level things up 1-1 before returning home for Game 3 this weekend. The Celtics and Cavs tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET followed by the Thunder-Mavs matchup, which begins at 9:30 p.m. ET.
From an injury perspective, there isn’t much unknown coming into this slate. Kristaps Porzingis (calf) is out, and although Jarrett Allen (rib) is officially questionable, it doesn’t seem like he is likely to play either. In the West, Luka Doncic (knee) is probable, and the Thunder continue to have no injuries to report.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic still has the highest raw projections with the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the entire slate. However, his salary is more than $2,000 more than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who looks like a stronger per-dollar play and a much easier option to build around in Game 2.
In Game 1, SGA had 29 points, nine rebounds, nine assists, and 59.75 DraftKings points, while Luka had 19 points, nine assists and 42 DraftKings points. SGA has scored at least 24 points in each of the Thunder’s five playoff games, averaging 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 37.6 minutes per game. He leads the Thunder with a 32.6% usage rate and has been turning in good rebounds and assists as well.
On Thursday, SGA has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the most Pts/Sal of any player on the slate. Since he’s so much cheaper than Doncic, he’s a better play if he even comes close to matching Luka’s output. If he outplays Doncic again in Game 2, he’ll be a key to building the winning lineup this Thursday.
Value
Jrue Holiday has the highest Projected Plus/Mins of the point guard options under $6,000 and the second-highest of all players in that price bracket at all positions. He has been very consistent during Boston’s postseason run, producing between 20 and 30 DraftKings points in each contest.
In Game 1 of this series, Holiday logged 36 minutes and finished with 14 points, six rebounds, and 27.5 DraftKings points. Since he only has a 14.05% usage rate, he has produced 0.72 DraftKings points per minute, but his importance on the defensive end has helped him play the second-most minutes on the team at 35.5 minutes per game.
If your choices elsewhere force you to go cheaper at point guard, Holiday is a reliable option with good upside.
Fast Break
Since Luka hasn’t looked quite right while playing through his knee injury, he actually could be a great source of pay-up leverage. His ownership projection is significantly lower than the other star options, so he makes sense as a target from a game theory perspective since he could post a monster number if he’s fully healthy.
The Cavs need Darius Garland to step up if they are going to make this a competitive series with the Celtics. In Game 1, Garland had 14 points and 28.25 DraftKings points in 36 minutes. He’s priced a little higher than Holiday and does have a higher ceiling, but he hasn’t been as consistent, averaging 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 34.9 minutes per game.
In Game 1, Payton Pritchard stepped up with 16 points off the Boston bench, returning great value at just $4,200. His salary actually went down $100 coming into Game 2. His workload is still uncertain depending on game flow, but he has much more upside than any other point guard play available for under $5,000.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
While the Cavs lost by 25 in Game 1, it’s hard to blame it on Donovan Mitchell, who continues to put up monster numbers in every playoff game. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all shooting guards on this slate and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at he position.
Mitchell poured in 33 points in 37 minutes and finished with over 50 DraftKings points for the third straight game. He has produced 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight contests.
The Cavs are going to have to rely on Mitchell to carry their offense, as evidenced by his 36.4% usage rate in the postseason. If they hope to steal Game 2, they’ll need Spida to go off with another monster game.
Value
Derrick White has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and the second-highest of all players on the slate, behind only SGA. White is a very solid mid-range target and has shown an extremely high ceiling.
So far in the playoffs, White has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute and played 33.7 minutes per game. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games after opening this second-round series with 25 points, five assists, and 37.25 DraftKings points on Tuesday.
White flashed a high ceiling to go with his consistent production by finishing the first round with big games of 57 and 38.25 DraftKings points against the Heat. He should continue to get extra work for Boston while Porzingis is sidelined. During the regular season, White averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, but that number jumped to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Kristaps Porzingis off the floor, and his usage jumped over three percentage points to 21.9%.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate and the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at the position. He scored 32 points in Game 1 and finished with 46 DraftKings points. It was his third game of 40+ DraftKings points in his six playoff contests, and he is averaging 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. Like White, he also gets more work when Porzingis is sidelined.
The Mavericks have had to rely more on Kyrie Irving with Luka seemingly at less than 100% healthy. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at shooting guard behind only Mitchell. It’s hard to trust him more than Mitchell since he isn’t always the Mavs’ focus on offense. He has scored at least 20 points in six of the seven postseason games for Dallas while averaging 1.10 DraftKings points per minute.
If you are looking for a bargain play, keep an eye on Cason Wallace. Wallace played under 20 minutes in every game against the Pelicans but stepped up with 23 minutes in Game 1 against Dallas, contributing 18.25 DraftKings points on seven points, three rebounds, and three assists. If he continues to get extra run, he’ll be a great bargain option at just $3,400.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jalen Williams has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward on this slate behind just Jayson Tatum (discussed below) and ahead of Jaylen Brown. Williams has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well. He played very well in the first round against the Pelicans but had a bit of a down game in Game 1 of this series since it turned into a blowout. For much of the season, Williams was only power forward eligible, but recently, he has been given dual eligibility at point guard and small forward. That positional flexibility allows him to flex to whichever roster spot is more of a position of need for you depending on how the rest of your roster shakes out.
In the playoffs, Williams has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute, the third-highest mark on the team, with a 25.6% usage rate, which is second on the team. His usage and minutes projection remains consistent for Game 2 of this series, and he’s a very solid play at just over $7,500 that can be counted on to deliver solid numbers while also bringing a high ceiling.
Value
In their Game 1 win against Dallas, the Thunder got good contributions from two value small forwards–Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins. Wiggins has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on Thursday with Dort right behind him.
Dort plays more minutes than Wiggins, averaging 33.2 minutes per game in the playoffs but only producing 0.64 DraftKings points per minute. He did score double-digit points in the final three games against the Pelicans but only had seven points and 17 DraftKings points in 26 minutes in Game 1 against Dallas.
Wiggins is only averaging 16.4 minutes per game, but he showed a great ceiling in Game 1 of this series, pouring in 16 points in 23 minutes to earn 29.75 DraftKings points. Since his salary is still only $4,000, he is a great bargain play with good upside if he gets more minutes like that in this matchup. Wiggins has more offensive upside, but Dort is a little more stable since he logs so many minutes.
Fast Break
Max Strus struggled in Game 1 after finishing the first round with a bit of a surge. He always has a high ceiling due to his streaky shooting, but he has only reached salary-based expectations twice in the Cavs’ eight playoff contests.
In Game 1, it was Isaac Okoro who stepped up a little for Cleveland, knocking down three three-pointers and scoring 11 points. He has scored at least eight points in three of his last four games and is an intriguing bargain play under $4,000.
The Mavericks use a rotation at small forward with Josh Green, Derrick Jones Jr., and Tim Hardaway Jr. all getting minutes and dividing production. Green has the highest Projected Plus/minus and the lowest salary of the trio, and he had the best Game 1, scoring 11 points in 25 minutes. It was his best game of the playoffs, but it may indicate he’s a better fit for this matchup than the two veteran options.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all small forwards and power forwards on this slate. He has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the whole slate behind just the two superstar point guards and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate behind only SGA and his teammate Derrick White.
Tatum opened the second round with a double-double that earned him 46.25 DraftKings points in just 35 minutes. He has produced 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.1% usage rate in the postseason and now has four straight double-doubles dating back to the last series.
He typically plays bigger with Porzingis out of the lineup, so the rebounds should continue to come his way. The Cavs didn’t show any sign that they have an answer to Boston’s offense, and the only reason Tatum didn’t score more was that the game got out of hand with his teammates pouring it on. He remains an elite fantasy play with a high ceiling in this favorable matchup.
Value
Tatum’s teammate Al Horford has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both power forward and center, as he continues to fill in for Porzingis. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player with a salary under $6,000 and fits in nicely to multiple roster builds.
In Game 1, he played 28 minutes and had 25.5 DraftKings points on seven points, eight rebounds, and four assists. He fell just short of salary-based expectations but has produced a solid 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs. His minutes projection for Thursday is 32.7, so there’s more room for him to grow and approach double-digit points, rebounds, or both as the Celtics try to go up 2-0 before the series shifts to Cleveland. Horford’s veteran presence is key for the Celtics’ rotation, and he’s still productive as a mid-range fantasy target as well.
Fast Break
Evan Mobley has struggled to fill in a larger role without Jarrett Allen and comes at a steep salary compared to his projections. He has posted back-to-back double-doubles, though, and finished with a solid 40.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 on 17 points and 13 boards. He has over 37 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
Josh Green (discussed above) has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards behind just Tatum and Horford and is a great punt play if his role stays consistent in Game 2. His teammate, P.J. Washington had 10 points in Game 1 and has reached double-digit points in six of the Mavs’ seven playoff games while averaging 0.70 DraftKings points per minute in 33.9 minutes per game.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Of the centers on the slate, rookie Chet Holmgren has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and is clearly the class of the position on this slate.
Holmgren impressed in Game 1 with 19 points and seven rebounds on his way to 39.75 DraftKings points in 31 minutes. He was very good in the two home games against the Pelicans as well before posting lower numbers on the road.
Holmgren dominated the matchup with the Mavs during the regular season, and he looked ready to continue that performance in the playoffs. While he may not be worth his salary when the series shifts to Dallas, he’s a strong play to build around Thursday since Game 2 is still in OKC.
Value
Dallas has been rotating rookie Dereck Lively with Daniel Gafford since acquiring Gafford at the trade deadline. Although Lively was the better fantasy play against the Clippers, it was Gafford who delivered in Game 1.
Gafford finished with 16 points, 11 boards, and 42.25 DraftKings points while piling up five blocked shots in 27 minutes. Lively was limited to just 13 minutes, and this matchup could lend itself more to Gafford’s strengths if Game 1 is any indication.
Lively offers a little bit of salary relief and still brings good upside, but if you can afford either player, Gafford seems to be the preferred play. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on this slate behind just Holmgren and Horford. He has the highest ceiling projection of all players on the slate with salaries under $5,000.
Fast Break
Luke Kornet stepped up off the bench for Boston in Game 1 against Cleveland, producing 10 rebounds and 23 DraftKings points in his 21 minutes. He should continue to get minutes for as long as Porzingis is sidelined, and he brings good energy and hustle off the bench. He doesn’t have the upside of either of the Mavs’ centers, but his price of just $3,800 makes him a punt play to consider at center if you run out of salary.
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