The NBA has a pair of Game 3 matchups lined up on Saturday, and by the end of the day, all four of the second-round series will stand at 2-1. The top seed in each conference won Game 1 and lost Game 2 coming into today’s Game 3. The Thunder visit the Mavs in the first game of the day, which starts at 3:30 p.m. ET when contests lock, and then the Celtics head to Cleveland to face the Cavs and complete the doubleheader.
After leading his team to a win in Game 2, Luka Doncic (knee) is officially questionable to headline Saturday’s injury report. The Cavaliers continue to list Jarrett Allen (rib) as questionable and also added Dean Wade (knee) as questionable after being sidelined since March 8 with a knee sprain. As injury updates come in, be sure to refresh the player models for the latest updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Even though Luka Doncic still has the highest raw projections with the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the entire slate, I still prefer building around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is $1,800 cheaper and brings just as high a ceiling. SGA has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the slate and also brings the highest Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Doncic was great in Game 2 and finally lived up to his lofty salary-based expectations, but SGA was even better, pouring in 33 points, 12 assists, and eight rebounds for 67 DraftKings points, his best mark of the playoffs. He has scored at least 24 points in each of the Thunder’s six playoff games, averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute in 38.2 minutes per game with a team-high 32.4% usage rate. He has been especially sharp in his two games against the star-studded backcourt of the Mavs, producing 59.75 and 67 DraftKings points in his two matchups this series.
The Thunder will look to take back control of the series on Saturday afternoon, and their best chance to do that is to lean heavily on their stars. While the team lost on Thursday, it wasn’t SGA’s fault, and he remains a top option to build around since he remains so much cheaper than Luka.
Value
Of all players on this slate with salaries under $5,000, Payton Pritchard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the fourth-highest ceiling projection. At just $4,100, he offers plenty of salary relief while still bringing good upside.
Pritchard didn’t do much in the first round, falling below salary-based expectations in all five games against the Heat and averaging only 4.4 points per game. He has looked much more involved and effective in the first two games of this series, scoring double-digit points in each game and exceeding salary-based expectations by over 5.0 DraftKings points in each contest. He had 16 points and 27.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and followed that with 13 points and 24 DraftKings points in Game 2.
As the series shifts to Cleveland, Pritchard remains a great cheap play at point guard since he should remain very involved and productive in Boston’s rotation. If you have to go with a cheap play to make your salaries work, he’s the top value play on the board under $5,000.
Fast Break
Doncic was probable before Thursday’s game and is questionable Saturday. While he will likely play, he is clearly playing through a knee issue that has him at less than 100%. He had his best game of the playoffs in Game 2, producing 63.5 DraftKings points on 29 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists in 41 minutes. He’ll continue to carry a huge workload and bring a high ceiling, but his salary is so huge that it’s challenging to build around. His ownership projection is held in check by his salary as well, so he does make sense as a contrarian, pay-up source of leverage.
Jrue Holiday and Darius Garland are solid mid-range targets, although neither starting point guard has the star power or upside as their Western Conference counterparts. Holiday has the better value projections of the two with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options with salaries under $6,500. He only had four points in Game 2 and has yet to reach 15 points in any playoff game this season. He is averaging only 0.68 DraftKings points per minute but logging 35.3 minutes per game.
Cason Wallace is only $3,300 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first two games of this series, making him a good punt play to consider.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
After carrying his team to a Game 2 victory, Donovan Mitchell will look to help the Cavs protect their home floor in Game 3 on Saturday night. Mitchell is a pricey play and doesn’t project as well as the pay-up options at other positions. However, he remains the unquestioned focus of the Cavs’ offense and brings a high usage projection as a result.
After exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight games, he has the highest median and floor projections of all shooting guards on Saturday. While he hasn’t had a double-double during that run, he has scored at least 29 points in each game and finished with at least 50 DraftKings points in each contest. On Thursday in Game 2, he had 29 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds.
He continues to do it all for the Cavs and should be a solid play in Game 3 if you can make his salary work with your cap space.
Value
As he did on Thursday, Derrick White has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on the slate on Saturday and the second-highest of all players on the slate, behind only SGA. White remains a very strong mid-range option and has also flashed an extremely high ceiling.
Unfortunately for the Celtics and their fans, White failed to live up to his strong projections on Thursday, finishing with only 10 points for his lowest output of the playoffs. White had been rolling before that game and really stepped it up on the road in the first round. He will look to follow that template in Game 3 of this series. Before Thursday’s letdown, he exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games with at least 25 points and 37 DraftKings points in each contest.
As I mentioned in my previews for the earlier games in this series, White usually takes on more work with Kristaps Porzingis off the floor. During the regular season, White averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, but that number jumped to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, and his usage jumped over three percentage points to 21.9% with Porzingis out. For as long as White has that extra work coming his way, he’ll be a good play under $7,000 with a very high ceiling.
Fast Break
On Saturday, Kyrie Irving has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards, higher even than Mitchell’s. Part of that is due to Luka’s injury since he may have to take on more work. Irving only took six shots and no three-pointers in Game 2 but did hand out a playoff-high 11 assists. Since the rest of the Mavs were hitting their shots, that setup worked well, but he’ll likely need to be a more active scorer in Game 3. He has a sky-high ceiling and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in Game 3.
Jaylen Brown has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at shooting guard. He was one of the few Celtics with a good shooting percentage in Game 2 but only had 19 points and 25 DraftKings points, falling short of salary-based expectations. In the postseason, he averages 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and leads the team with a 31.9% usage rate.
After scoring only four points in Game 1, Caris LeVert had his best game of the postseason in Game 2, dropping 21 points and 31.5 DraftKings points in 27 minutes. He has the best Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards under $5,000.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
On Saturday, Jalen Williams has the second-highest median and floor projections at small forward and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus. He can also slide over to point guard as a solid option, but he has more value at small forward, which is a slightly thinner position as a whole.
Williams has been very consistent as the Thunder’s second option this postseason, scoring between 18 and 24 points in each contest and producing between 34 and 46 DraftKings points. He has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.1% usage rate.
While he did fall just short of salary-based expectations in each of the first two games of this series, he has been a reliable source or production for much of the season and will continue to be very involved in the OKC attack in Game 3.
Value
Behind the big three of Jaylen Brown, Jalen Williams, and Jayson Tatum (discussed below), the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on Saturday comes from Thunder bargain play Isaiah Joe. Joe’s salary is barely over the minimum at just $3,100, and he usually finds a way to contribute in his time coming off the Thunder’s bench.
He had six points, three rebounds, and 15.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and followed that with seven points and 8.25 DraftKings in 19 minutes in Game 2. Joe has produced 0.71 DraftKings points per minute in 14.5 minutes per game.
Joe’s teammates Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins are just behind him in Projected Plus/Minus. Dort plays heavy minutes, averaging 33.2 minutes per game in the playoffs but only producing 0.65 DraftKings points per minute with a low usage rate. Wiggins had a big Game 1 with 29.75 DraftKings points but only had 14 DraftKings points in Game 2. He’s very cheap under $4,000, but Joe’s Projected Plus/Minus is higher on Saturday.
Fast Break
Max Strus bounced back with 12 points in Game 2 after struggling in Game 1. He always has a high ceiling due to his streaky shooting, but he has fallen short of salary-based expectations in seven of Cleveland’s nine postseason matchups
After returning from injury with a quiet Game 1, Tim Hardaway Jr. stepped up with 17 points in 19 minutes in Game 2. He has boom-or-bust upside at just $3,600 and doesn’t usually contribute in as many non-scoring categories as the Thunders’ forward options.
While he fell short of salary-based expectations in each game, Isaac Okoro did score double-digit points in each of the first two games of this series. His salary of $4,000 is slightly higher than the Western Conference options, but he has been a little more consistent than the bargain plays of the Mavs and Thunder.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Now is the time for Jayson Tatum to step up for the Celtics. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all small forwards and power forwards on this slate in addition to the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both positions. Only Luka, SGA, and his teammate Derrick White have better value projections on the entire slate.
Tatum has fallen short of salary-based expectations in each of his last four games. He did score 25 points in Game 2, his second-highest mark of the postseason, but he only had seven rebounds after posting four straight double-doubles. In the postseason, he has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.4% usage rate.
The Celtics will need their superstar to step up with a big game in Cleveland, and Tatum has been up to the task in the past on the road in the playoffs.
Value
Mavericks power forward P.J. Washington went off in Game 2, scoring 29 points to go with 11 rebounds for an amazing 58.75 DraftKings points to crush Thursday’s slate. He had been solid throughout the playoffs until that point but hadn’t shown that kind of high ceiling.
In his eight playoff games, Washington has scored double-digit points seven times but hadn’t had a double-double before Thursday’s monster game. He is averaging 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in 34.6 minutes per game in the postseason but only has a 16.2% usage rate.
It seems unlikely Washington stays quite so hot shooting the ball, but he definitely brings good upside for a play under $6,000. His consistency throughout the playoffs makes him relatively low risk, especially after seeing how high his ceiling can be.
Fast Break
Evan Mobley has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at power forward on Saturday and has posted three straight double-doubles. He had 29 points, 10 boards, and 49 DraftKings points to help carry Cleveland to their Game 2 win, and he’s a solid alternative to Tatum for as long Jarrett Allen (rib) remains sidelined and leaves him more work on the block. He has over 37 DraftKings points in five of his last six contests.
Tatum’s teammate Al Horford has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both power forward and center, as he continues to fill in for Porzingis. He scored a playoff-high 11 points in Game 2 but still fell short of salary-based expectations for the fourth time in his last five games.
Josh Green is a strong value play for the Mavs with his salary under $3,500. In each of the first two games of this series, Green scored 11 points and exceeded salary-based expectations.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Despite a rough Game 2, rookie Chet Holmgren brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center on Saturday. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the most Pts/Sal at the position.
Holmgren impressed in Game 1 with 19 points and seven rebounds on his way to 39.75 DraftKings points in 31 minutes but only had 11 points and 30 DraftKings points in Game 2. Holmgren typically fills in non-scoring production across the box score and has been a more consistent option than Mobley so far this postseason.
In their regular-season meetings, Holmgren dominated the matchup with the Mavs, and he should be able to bounce back from his disappointing Game 2 with a better showing in Game 3. So far in his first postseason, he has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 32.7 minutes per game.
Value
Dallas continues to rotate Daniel Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively at center against Chet. While Lively was the more productive fantasy play against the Clippers, Gafford has been the better matchup so far in this series.
He contributed 16 points, 11 boards, and five blocks for 42.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and followed that up with 13 points, seven rebounds, and another block to finish with 27.25 DraftKings points and exceed salary-based expectations for the second straight game. Gafford’s salary has climbed past $5,000 after those two good games, but he still is a very good value with the third-highest ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus of all players with salaries under $6,000 on Saturday.
Fast Break
Coming off the OKC bench, Jaylin Williams has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first two games in this series. He has the second-best Projected Plus/Minus of the centers with salaries under $5,000 behind just Lively, but he has been more productive, averaging 9.5 points and 6.5 rebounds in just 15 minutes per game in the first two games of this series.
