The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Los Angeles Lakers – $10,700 DraftKings
Only available on the DraftKings slate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has by far the highest projected ceiling among the point guard options. Gilgeous-Alexander will play on the second leg of a back-to-back after posting 70 DraftKings points last night. He finished with 35 points, nine assists, eight rebounds, three steals, and three blocks while shooting 15-for-27 from the field. It was Gilgeous-Alexander’s eighth consecutive game scoring at least 30 points. He has shot over 50% in all but one game.
The Thunder are a one-point road underdog against the Lakers, implied for 118.5 points. This game should be a track meet, with the Thunder and Lakers both ranking in the top seven in pace this season. To no surprise given his season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging over 30 points per game in his three games against the Lakers, while shooting 55.2% from the field.
Top Value: Keyonte George vs. Washington Wizards – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
The guard position is absolutely loaded with value on tonight’s slate. Most of the elite plays come from the Utah Jazz, who are playing without Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler. Rookie starting point guard Keyonte George is flourishing in his first year in the league. He is coming off a 31-point game against the Heat on Saturday, where he had a 29.6% usage rate. George has posted a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 14 games and has one of the highest projected Plus/Minus tonight.
A big reason why the Jazz look so good on this slate is the fantastic matchup against the Wizards. This matchup has the highest total on the slate at 240 points, with the Jazz implied for a slate-high 122 points. On FanDuel, getting exposure to multiple Jazz pieces is a necessity. The Wizards continue to rank first in pace and dead last in defensive rating at 119.9.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
After a one-point loss last night against the Clippers, the Timberwolves are playing their last game of a seven-game home stand tonight against the Trail Blazers. Anthony Edwards posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine straight games before having a negative one in three straight games. Expect a bounce-back game for Edwards against a Trail Blazers team that ranks 20th in defensive rating. He has averaged 28 points per game while shooting 56.1% in his three games in this matchup.
Not only is he averaging a career-high 26.3 points per game this season, but he also has the fourth-highest usage rate in the league at 32.4%. When looking at the Timberwolves, everything starts and ends with Edwards. Averaging 14.3 drives per game, he will get plenty of opportunity against the Trail Blazers, who allow 54.4 points per game in the paint.
Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Washington Wizards – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Back to the Jazz backcourt with Collin Sexton who is projected for the highest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Sexton also has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for both sites. At his mid-range price tag, Sexton is a staple in cash games and has shown the upside to be viable in tournaments. Sexton’s fantasy production has been very consistent with the guard averaging over 20 points per game with high ceiling assist games since the start of December.
With Markkanen and Kessler out, the Jazz will need to rely on Sexton to score the ball. He is second behind Markkanen on the team, averaging 17.9 points per game. For a guard, Sexton has impressive shooting percentages of 48.5% from the field and 39.8% from behind the arc. The Wizards are allowing opponents to shoot 50.2%, making this a great spot for Sexton.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at Milwaukee Bucks – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Finally healthy, Kawhi Leonard has already played more games this season than his last two years and is seven games away from playing his most since the 2016-17 season. He has provided a model of consistency this year, leading the Clippers with 24.2 points per game and a 26.5% usage rate. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games while averaging 25.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.2 steals per game while shooting 48.5% during that stretch.
Priced at only $9,000 on DraftKings feels like a steal given how well he has played recently. He has 10 Pro Trends and a 79% Bargain Rating. Clippers’ point guard Russell Westbrook is out, which will provide more ball handling opportunities for Leonard. Being one of the few pay-up options on FanDuel, he is currently projected for around 20% ownership.
Top Value: Brice Sensabaugh vs. Washington Wizards – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Priced near the stone minimum on DraftKings and at the minimum on FanDuel, Brice Sensabaugh is one of the best values on the slate. The rookie from Ohio State has played in 11 games this season but has averaged 14.6 minutes per game in his last five contests. He has yet to clear his salary-based expectations but will have a great opportunity tonight without Markkanen and Kessler. With these two off the floor, Sensabaugh has a team-high +8.06% usage rate this season.
Most of Sensabaugh’s production thus far has come from his perimeter shooting. In his last five games, 65% of his field goal attempts have come from behind the arc. The Wizards are allowing opponents to shoot 37% from distance, and Sensabaugh doesn’t have to do much to provide value at his cheap price tag. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Jazz tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $11,500 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
The biggest news on this slate is the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is questionable with a knee injury after scoring 41 points and grabbing 16 rebounds against the Hornets on Friday night. Giannis should be well-rested, but his status needs to be monitored. If he is out, Damian Lillard would be an incredible play in all formats, and a few of the Bucks role players will begin to compete with the Jazz value players. If Giannis plays, he has the highest projected ceiling on both sites tonight.
Khris Middleton remains out for the Bucks, which also boosts the usage rate and production for Giannis. The Clippers have struggled on the road defensively, with their rating dropping from 113.9 to 117.5 compared to playing at home this season. With so much value, rostering Giannis is relatively easy on this small slate. Make sure he is able to suit up with no trouble.
Top Value: Deni Avdija at Utah Jazz – $6,600 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Losers of 14 straight games, the Wizards are now tied with the Pistons for the worst record in the league at 9-51. One of the few bright spots for the Wizards has been third-year pro Deni Avdija. He is averaging a career-high across the board in points, rebounds, and assists while shooting 51% from the field and 41.2% from behind the arc. After a slow start to the year on the glass Avdija has recorded double-digit rebounds in four of his last seven games with two games of 15 rebounds.
The Jazz rank second in rebounding percentage this season, but that will take a major dip with Markkanen and Kessler out of the lineup. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Avdija flirt with a triple-double in this matchup against the Jazz. Priced in the mid-range on both sites, He looks exceptional on FanDuel with a 91% Bargain Rating and dual forward eligibility tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. OKC Thunder – $10,100 DraftKings
Domantas Sabonis and Anthony Davis are both only available on the DraftKings slate, but they both look great in their respective matchups. Sabonis is the better cash-games option, but Davis has elite upside playing against a smaller Thunder frontcourt. The separator is the fact that Davis has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings due to his cheap salary of $10,100. He can be a streaky fantasy producer, but has upside and put up 40 points and over 70 DraftKings points last Thursday.
The Thunder do not have the size and strength to match up with Davis when he is cooking. He has dominated this matchup in his three past meetings this season. He has recorded a double-double in every game and is averaging 28 points and 13.3 rebounds per game while shooting 55.4% from the field. He is simply too cheap on this slate given his matchup tonight.
Top Value: John Collins vs. Washington Wizards – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
The last value to target is yet again another Utah Jazz player. John Collins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the center position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 15 of his last 17 games and will now play without both Markkanen and Kessler in the frontcourt. Our model has Collins projected to play over 30 minutes and be one of the best values on the slate. His power forward and center eligibility makes him easy to fit into all lineup builds.
Collins may draw the best individual matchup against the Wizards compared to his teammates. The Wizards rank last in rebounding percentage at 45.5% and second-to-last in points allowed in the paint at 59.5 per game. He has recorded a double-double in eight of his last 16 games and has a great chance at another one in this matchup against the Wizards.
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