The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Golden State Warriors – $9,000 DraftKings
Only available on the DraftKings eight-game slate, Jalen Brunson has scored over 40 points in back-to-back games. His usage rate in those two games is a ridiculous 46.5%, with the Knicks point guard attempting 29 field goals per game. Taking matters into his own hands, if Brunson is this aggressive, he is going to be a great pay-up option. Brunson has the highest projected ceiling at the point guard position. Julius Randle and OG Anunoby are both out, boosting the ceiling for Brunson.
Brunson’s $9,000 salary is more than reasonable and is actually down nearly $1,000 from two weeks ago. The Knicks are playing at the slowest pace in the league and are only implied for 103 points. That slow pace hasn’t diminished Brunson’s production, with the point guard averaging a career-high 27.5 points per game. He will get as much usage as he can handle.
Top Value: Dalano Banton at Chicago Bulls – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Dalano Banton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings tonight. Since the start of March, Banton is averaging 17.9 points per game, while shooting 41.3% from behind the arc. He is coming off a team-high 28 points last game. Banton has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 10 games. His playing time is what sets him apart from his peers. He has played 42 minutes in back-to-back games with a 27.8% usage rate.
The Trail Blazers are eight-point underdogs against the Bulls, who play at the second-slowest pace in the league. Expect another low-scoring game in this matchup tonight. Despite playing at a slow pace, that should not hold Banton down. He is still only $5,100 on FanDuel, which is resulting in a 95% Bargain Rating. He has the highest projected ownership on both sites.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Utah Jazz – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
After beating the Jazz 119-100 on Saturday night, the same matchup will occur tonight, with the Timberwolves being 6.5-point road favorites. With Karl-Anthony Towns still nursing an injury and Rudy Gobert potentially missing his second-straight game, it has been the Anthony Edwards show. With Towns and Gobert off the floor, Edwards has a +2.29% usage rate and a +6.11 DraftKings Plus/Minus. His salary has risen across the industry, but it is deserving based on his recent play.
The Timberwolves’ All-Star is averaging a career-high 26.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and five assists per game this season. In their meeting on Saturday night, Edwards stuffed the stat sheet with 31 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, three steals, and three blocks while shooting 12-for-20 from the field, including five 3-pointers. He is an elite pay-up option in this matchup.
Top Value: Sam Merrill at Indiana Pacers – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Cavaliers’ shooting guard Sam Merrill has scored double-digit points in back-to-back games. He has flirted with a double-double in both games, having 15 points and nine assists on Wednesday night and 11 points and eight rebounds on Saturday night. Proving that he is more than just a sharpshooter boosts the floor for Merrill. Projected to play 28 minutes, Merrill is a cheap way to get exposure to a Cavaliers offense that is missing Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus.
Nearly all of Merrill’s scoring production comes from his perimeter shooting. He is shooting 41.3% from behind the arc, making a career-high 2.3 3-pointers per game. Over 90% of his field goal attempts come from downtown. Getting scoring opportunities will not be a problem against the Pacers, who rank second in pace and are allowing 121.1 points per game.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
The Celtics are the most important team to monitor when it comes to news on tonight’s slate. They are hosting the Pistons and are a massive favorite, implied for a slate-high 120 points. However, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are listed questionable to play. Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Sam Hauser are already listed out. This is the second leg of a back-to-back, where the Celtics beat the Wizards by 26 points last night. Keep an eye on who is in the starting lineup for the Celtics.
If Tatum is able to play, he is going to look like one of the best pay-up options once again on this slate. Last night, Tatum cruised to a 30-point game while making six 3-pointers in only 27 minutes of action. The Pistons rank 26th in defensive rating and 27th in net rating, which makes this a fantastic matchup for Tatum. If he plays, expect another great Tatum game.
Top Value: Caris LeVert at Indiana Pacers – $6,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Caris LeVert is another Cavaliers value player who is worth getting exposure to on tonight’s slate. LeVert has shooting guard and small forward eligibility on both sites, making him easy to fit into all lineup builds. He looks exceptional on DraftKings at $6,800, which is resulting in an 85% Bargain Rating. LeVert has scored double-digit points in eight of his last 10 games and has shined with Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus not in the lineup. He is still a little too cheap.
Not only is LeVert’s price tag right, but so is the matchup against the Pacers. The pace they play at provides upside to their opponents. The Pacers are tied for the most points allowed in the paint this season at 59.3 per game. They also rank 23rd in rebounding percentage. There are plenty of avenues for LeVert to continue his great play with a ceiling performance tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Atlanta Hawks – $10,300 DraftKings
LeBron James continues to be listed questionable but is almost always active for the Lakers. He is another pay-up option that is only available on the DraftKings slate. Priced at $10,300, James has a 50% Bargain Rating and is tied for a slate-high 12 Pro Trends. James is coming off a monster game against the Warriors, putting up 40 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds while shooting 15-for-23 from the field. He finished with 67 DraftKings points and a 35.7% usage rate.
After leaving last game with an eye injury, the Lakers are optimistic that Anthony Davis will play tonight, but it is an injury worth monitoring. He has barely played without Davis this season, but his production last season in 19 games without Davis was incredible, averaging 34.5 points per game. Regardless if Davis is in or not, the Hawks will have no answer for James.
Top Value: Kyle Anderson at Utah Jazz – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Priced at $5,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Kyle Anderson has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites. Anderson has been questionable for three straight games and has been able to play in his last two, so the questionable tag for tonight may be precautionary. Anderson played 31 minutes against the Jazz Saturday night and stuffed the stat sheet with four points, nine assists, five rebounds, two steals, and one block. He posted an egregiously low 9.8% usage rate.
Normally, with Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert out, Anderson will not only get more minutes but have the ball in his hands more often. Even though Anderson had a positive Plus/Minus, he does have more in the tank for a better game in the same matchup tonight. The Jazz rank 29th in defensive rating at 119.1, making this a great spot for the versatile Anderson.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $10,500 DraftKings
Tied with LeBron James for 12 Pro Trends, Mr. triple-double Domantas Sabonis is in a great spot for yet another ceiling game. Leading the league with a career-high 13.6 rebounds per game, Sabonis has been one of the best and most consistent fantasy producers all season long. With a league-best 23 triple-doubles, the versatile center can provide fantasy points in a variety of ways. Sabonis has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in an absurd 21 of his last 28 games.
In the two games that Sabonis has played the Grizzlies, he has absolutely dominated. Sabonis is averaging 16.5 points, 23.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 68.2% from the field. With the Grizzlies ranking 26th in rebounding percentage at 48.6%, expect another dominant performance on the glass. This is an incredible matchup for the elite center.
Top Value: Myles Turner vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
At his mid-range price tag, Myles Turner is the best value at the center position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Turner is coming off an uncharacteristic poor scoring night against the Nets. He only had a 16.6% usage rate and finished with 11 points. Expect a bounce-back performance from Turner, especially with the Cavaliers still without Evan Mobley. In his two games in this matchup this season, Turner is averaging a double-double with 23.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
Turner has been one of the most consistent players on the Pacers this season. This is his third-straight year that Turner is shooting over 50% from the field and over 33% from behind the arc. He continues to rank in the top 10 in blocks per game, which provides a ceiling. Turner has four blocks in three of his last five games. He can tap into that ceiling in this matchup.
