The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Chicago Bulls – $12,400 DraftKings, $12,800 FanDuel
Luka Doncic has been a model of consistency lately, recording six consecutive 30-point triple-doubles. During that time, he is averaging 36.3 points, 11.5 assists, 10.8 rebounds, and 74.1 DraftKings points per game. Doncic has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game with an average of +11.74 DraftKings Plus/Minus per game. With the highest projected ceiling in our Player Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is impossible to ignore in all lineup builds for this six-game slate.
The best game environment on this slate is the Mavericks going on the road as four-point favorites against the Bulls. This game has a slate-high 233-point total, with the Mavericks implied for 119.25 points. Even with everything aligning perfectly for Doncic, he is only projected for 10% ownership on both sites. With enough value, get over-exposed to Doncic tonight.
Top Value: Visilije Micic at Detroit Pistons – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Priced under $6,000 across the industry, Hornets’ rookie point guard Visilije Micic is projected to be the highest-owned point guard and the third-highest-owned player for both sites. Micic is coming off a 12-point, 10-assist double-double in the Hornets’ 11-point victory over the Nets. He has scored double-digit points in five straight games and has attempted at least 13 field goals per game in each of his four starts, with a 27.1% usage rate. Micic is simply too cheap on both sites tonight.
The Hornets are looking for back-to-back wins, and they will have a great opportunity to do that against the Pistons, who have the worst record in the league at 10-53. They are 4.5-point underdogs, while the Pistons have the second-worst defensive rating in the league at 119.4. Micic is one of the best value plays on the slate in his exceptional matchup against the Pistons.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Immanuel Quickley at Denver Nuggets – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
With a salary of $8,500 on both sites, Immanuel Quickley has elevated himself to being one of the best point guards in the league lately. He only has point guard and shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, which is where he will be prioritized. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in nine straight games. Quickley has the highest projected ceiling and the most Pro Trends, with 11 at the shooting guard position tonight. He is a great mix of value and a high ceiling in this matchup.
The Raptors are still without Scottie Barnes, while RJ Barrett is questionable to play with an illness. In his four games without Barnes in the lineup, Quickley is averaging a double-double with 22.3 points and 10.8 assists per game. He has been incredible since joining the Raptors and is one of the best guards on the slate despite being a 14-point underdog.
Top Value: Derrick White at Portland Trail Blazers – $6,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
By far the biggest news on this six-game slate is the status of the Boston Celtics. Kristaps Porzingis is out, while Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White are all questionable. This could change depending on the status of the entire starting lineup, but White currently has by far the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at the shooting guard position. White is a fantastic option that could look even better if the injury situation breaks his way and if he can play.
Another reason why the Celtics players look so great is the matchup against the Trail Blazers. They rank 21st in defensive rating and have lost 12 of their last 15 games. The Celtics are 9.5-point road favorites, implied for 112.25 points. White is having his best year with the Celtics, averaging 15.1 points, five assists, and four rebounds per game. He is a great value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Portland Trail Blazers – $9,500 DraftKings, $00 FanDuel
Sticking with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is projected for 20% ownership on DraftKings and 25% ownership on FanDuel if he is able to suit up. The seven-year forward from Duke is leading the Celtics in points, rebounds, and usage rate. The only guarantee thus far is that Kristaps Porzingis is unable to play, which bodes well for Tatum. With Porzingis off the floor this season, Tatum is averaging a team-high +3.35% usage rate and a +2.64 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 1,085 minutes played.
Due to the Celtics loaded roster, Tatum’s scoring has decreased. However, he is still averaging a healthy 26.9 points per game. His peripherals have increased to a career-high 4.9 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game. Tatum has recorded a points and rebounds double-double in six of his last 12 games. Another double-double awaits in this spot if he is able to suit up.
Top Value: Caris LeVert vs. Phoenix Suns – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
The Cavaliers are another team where we need more injury information from. Evan Mobley, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, and Dean Wade are all out. However, Darius Garland is also questionable with a sore wrist. With many players out, Caris LeVert will likely draw his third start of the season. LeVert started last night, but the Cavaliers didn’t put up much of a fight in a 19-point loss. In his only other start this season, LeVert scored 31 points and dished out eight assists in 44 total minutes.
If the Cavaliers can keep this game competitive, LeVert is going to thrive with all of the Cavaliers out. He is projected to be the highest-owned small forward on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Priced just under $7,000 across the industry, LeVert is projected to play around 32 minutes with a 25% usage rate. He will be a staple in cash games at his price point.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Cleveland Cavaliers – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Kevin Durant is coming off one of his best games of the season with 45 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. He shot an incredible 18-for-26 from the field, including four 3-pointers. That was with Devin Booker out, who is projected to be back tonight after missing four straight games with an ankle injury. It is unclear if Booker will have a minutes restriction or will be cold after the long layoff, but Durant bringing in less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel is way too low.
The Cavaliers have the third-best defense in the league but are missing a ton of key starters. Durant has proven he can score against anyone after his 45-point game against the Celtics last time out. It won’t take much to get over exposed to Durant and that feels like a necessity on this short six-game slate. He is still averaging a team-high 28.3 points per game.
Top Value: Trayce Jackson-Davis at San Antonio Spurs – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Tonight, the most popular player across the industry is Warriors’ forward Trayce Jackson-Davis. The rookie from Indiana is averaging 6.9 points and 4.1 rebounds per game this season but has gotten an increased role recently. With Steph Curry out, the Warriors are looking for production anywhere they can find it. Jackson-Davis has started in four games this season, including the last game against the Spurs. In his 24 minutes, Jackson-Davis had 11 points, six rebounds, and three blocks.
The Spurs have been playing better recently and did beat the Warriors last game 126-113. However, they still rank 23rd in defensive rating and 25th in rebounding percentage at 48.7%. The Warriors are also still 4.5-point road favorites tonight, implied for 115.5 points. Expected to draw another start tonight, Jackson-Davis is arguably the best value on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Toronto Raptors – $11,600 DraftKings, $12,100 FanDuel
Right behind Luka Doncic in projected ceiling is his good friend Nikola Jokic. He is only projected for around 5% ownership on both sites, making Jokic an elite contrarian pay-up option. The only issue for this spot is whether the Raptors can keep this game competitive. The Nuggets are 14-point home favorites, implied for a slate-high 123 points. The Raptors have injury concerns and already rank 24th in defensive rating. Jokic will absolutely dominate this matchup, even if his minutes get cut short.
Jokic is averaging a near triple-double this season with 26 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game. Jokic is tied with Doncic with 1.77 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is also second to Domantas Sabonis in triple-doubles with 20. With 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 10 on DraftKings, this is a great spot for him to assert his dominance yet again.
Top Value: Jarrett Allen vs. Phoenix Suns – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Jarrett Allen is another Cavaliers value who looks phenomenal tonight with so many players ruled out. With Evan Mobley ruled out, Allen is going to play a key role in protecting the paint. In 26 games without Mobley this season, Allen is averaging a massive double-double with 17 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. He is averaging less than double-digit rebounds with Mobley in the lineup. He has a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 14 games, with a double-double in eight of those games.
The Suns are an average interior defensive team with Jusuf Nurkic starting at center. They rank middle of the pack, allowing 50.2 points per game in the paint this season. However, this matchup comes down to opportunity for Allen. He is also playing at home, where the Cavaliers are 22-12, and he is shooting 67.3% from the field compared to 57.5% on the road.
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