NBA DFS Breakdown (Wednesday, May 19): Can LeBron James Be Trusted?

Wednesday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Steph Curry has been on a major heater recently.

He’s been fantastic all season — he led the league with an average of 32.0 points per game — but he increased that figure to 37.1 points over the final two months of the regular season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in seven of his past nine games, and he went off for 73.25 DraftKings points in the final game of the regular season. That game was essentially a playoff game against the Grizzlies, and Curry posted a usage rate of 49.9% in that contest.

Expect him to command another massive usage rate tonight vs. the Lakers. It will be a much tougher matchup — the Lakers ranked first in the league in defensive efficiency — but Curry is capable of going off against anyone.

Value

Dejounte Murray stands out as an elite value on DraftKings, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s blossomed into arguably the Spurs’ best all-around player, and he’s been pretty good from a fantasy perspective, as well. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 34.7 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a nice combination at just $6,300.

Fast Break

Ja Morant is worth some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%. His per-minute production is solid — he’s averaged 1.1 FanDuel points per minute this season — but his overall numbers have been kept in check by a lack of minutes.

He’s averaged just 32.6 minutes this season, which is less than you’d expect for a player of his caliber. That shouldn’t be an issue on Wednesday. He’s coming off nearly 38 minutes against the Warriors, and he’s projected for 37.6 against the Spurs.

Patty Mills is another potential source of value for the Spurs. He’s not expected to see a ton of playing time, but he has the capability to get hot quickly. He’s made at least four 3-pointers in 14 games this season, and he’s 20.5 DraftKings points in 13 of those contests. If he’s making his jump shot on Wednesday, he should be able to return value.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Shooting guard is one of the weaker positions on today’s slate. There are only three players priced above $4,400 on FanDuel, so you don’t have a lot of choices if you’re looking to pay up.

DeMar DeRozan stands out as the easy top option on FanDuel. He leads the position with an average of 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s also projected for the second-most minutes. His seven Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position.

Value

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes a ton of sense at just $4,000 on DraftKings. His salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s currently projected for 31.9 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.57 (per the Trends tool).

Fast Break

Andrew Wiggins has quietly turned in a solid season with the Warriors.

His scoring numbers were down a bit from his time in Minnesota, but he posted career-best marks in field goal and 3-point percentage. He’s been a nice fantasy asset recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.86 over his past 10 games, and he’s increased his production to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

If you’re looking for a cheaper option on FanDuel, consider Lonnie Walker. He’s priced at just $3,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 78%, and he’s currently projected for 29.4 minutes. That’s a nice chunk of playing time for a cheap price tag.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James is obviously a huge X-factor on today’s slate.

He’s played in just four of the Lakers’ past 30 games, and he’s played 28.5 minutes or less in three of those contests. His production has also been down when he’s been on the court recently, averaging just 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

That said, I’m not willing to be the guy who bets against LeBron.

There’s a reason this guy is considered one of the greatest players of all time. He averaged 27.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game during the playoffs last season, and he added in 1.2 steals and 0.9 blocks for good measure.

His price has decreased to $10,000 on FanDuel, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.60 with a comparable salary. The Warriors are also a great matchup, ranking tied for second in the league in pace. Maybe he’s not the same player due to injuries, but I’m going to need to see it to believe it.

Value

Rudy Gay has transformed into a highly efficient fantasy wrecking ball.

He comes off the bench and typically plays around 20 minutes, but that hasn’t stopped him from returning value. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.37 over his past 10 games. There’s a chance his role could expand a bit in a must-win game, so I like him quite a bit at just $4,000.

Fast Break

Dillon Brooks is another player who stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings on Wednesday. His $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Grizzlies’ implied team total of 113.5 points is the top mark on the slate, so he has plenty of scoring upside vs. the Spurs.

Kent Bazemore has gotten a bit pricy on DraftKings, but he remains affordable at $5,300 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 24.3 FanDuel points in three of his past four games.

Power Forward

Stud

Anthony Davis is in a very similar situation as LeBron. We haven’t seen a ton of him recently, and what we have seen hasn’t been great: His production has dipped to just 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s the clear top option if you’re paying up at the position, but there are reasons to be pessimistic.

Value

Another reason why fading Davis has merit is that Jaren Jackson Jr. is an awesome pivot.

He’s been sensational since rejoining the rotation for the Grizzlies, averaging 1.22 DraftKings points per minute. He’s coming off a season-high 31.5 minutes in his last outing, and it’s possible he could see a few additional minutes on Wednesday. Even if he doesn’t, he’s simply too cheap at $5,900. He’s scored at least 31.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, including 35.75 in his last outing.

Fast Break

Draymond Green is going to be crucial for the Warriors if they hope to upset the Lakers.

The Lakers are going to do everything possible to get the ball out of Curry’s hands, and that means it will more than likely end up in Draymond’s. That puts him in a ton of four-on-three situations offensively, and he’s great at exploiting those. His chemistry with Curry is not only good for Warriors but for fantasy owners as well: They own a correlation of +0.44 on FanDuel. I like the idea of stacking them together or fading them both in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).

Any additional playing time for Jackson will likely come directly from Kyle Anderson. That said, Anderson can afford to lose a few minutes and still return value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Anderson has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Center

Stud

Jonas Valanciunas has arguably the best individual matchup of the day. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.21 on DraftKings, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. He’s also been fantastic on a per-minute basis all season, and his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s another player who could lose some minutes to Jackson moving forward, but Valanciunas has provided fantasy value in reduced minutes for most of his career.

Value

The Spurs are going to Jakob Poeltl to combat the size of Valanciunas on the interior, which makes him an awesome value at $4,900. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 33.3 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s arguably a must-play in DraftKings cash games.

Fast Break

Kevon Looney is the preferred value option on FanDuel.

He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.24 over his past 10 games, and he’s returned value in each of his past seven contests.

His playing time has trended upwards toward the end of the season, culminating in 31.2 minutes in the regular-season finale against the Grizzlies. He’s expected to see a similar workload against the Lakers, and he should be able to pay off his $3,900 salary with that much playing time.

Photo Credit: Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images.
Pictured: LeBron James (left) and Anthony Davis (right).