Let’s get to it.
Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers (-15)
Implied Totals: 97.5 – 112.5, O/U: 210
It’s admittedly not the best spot for Thomas Robinson, but with salary-adjusted expectations of only 14.81 points he’ll be fired up in 100% of my cash lineups now that Brook Lopez has been ruled out. Willie Reed would be the pivot if he, rather than Robinson, starts at center (which is entirely plausible). Logging a team-high 33 minutes without Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (also out) and Thaddeus Young (questionable) in Brooklyn’s last game, Shane Larkin should also be considered one of the strongest tournament plays amongst the Nets. Still implied to score only 13.89 points at FanDuel, for instance, Larkin has had very little trouble exceeding expectations as of late:
It goes without saying, but just in case: there’s no need to go points-chasing with Kyrie Irving (unless you happen to love him in this matchup). Averaging a team-high usage rate of 37.8 percent without LeBron James this season, Irving unsurprisingly dominated against the Rockets with 49.5 DraftKings points. With James expected to return, however, exposure should be focused less on Irving (who’s currently listed as questionable, anyway) and more so on the former. James has averaged 55.1 DraftKings points in his last five performances. Kevin Love should also have tournament exposure. With a usage rate 4.0 percent higher than Irving in that span, Love has a salary that is absurdly underpriced at FanDuel (as shown by his Bargain Rating of 90 percent).
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers (-7.5)
Implied Totals: 99.8 – 107.3, O/U: 207
With all of Victor Oladipo, Mario Hezonja, Elfrid Payton, C.J. Watson, Brandon Jennings, and Evan Fournier active for the first night in quite some time, all logged somewhere between 21-26 minutes Tuesday evening. Oladipo and Fournier still own Bargain Ratings of at least 93 percent at DraftKings, but their volatility with everyone healthy is certainly worrisome from a cash perspective. Rather, they should be limited to tournaments. Same goes for Payton at FanDuel, where his reduced salary has allowed him to exceed expectations by 16.94 points over his last four games.
At first glance, Myle Turner’s sudden plummet in salary seems all too enticing. His minutes in that stretch — 28, 19.2, 15.8 — however, speak volume(s). He can passed on no matter the price. Ian Mahinmi, on the other hand, remains cash viable at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 75 percent. Although his minutes have been a concern in the past, note his average of 29.8 in his last three performances.
Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets (-6.5)
Implied Totals: 104.5 – 111, O/U: 215.5
Since having his restriction lifted two performances ago, Pau Gasol has averaged 40 DraftKings points in 33.4 minutes. Still implied to score only 32.29 points at DraftKings, Gasol has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.39, which should allow for easy access to his projected floor (which, mind you, qualifies as the highest among centers). While Gasol remains a top-three cash play in this entire slate, Dwight Howard should be looked at as more of an opportunistic tournament play: Despite having the highest Opponent Plus/Minus of his position, Howard has horrendously averaged 5.2 field goal attempts over his last nine games.
Despite shooting 29.6 percent over his last three games, Derrick Rose still has a reasonable DraftKings salary. Even in subpar performances, he has averaged only -1.17 points fewer than his implied total. With the highest Opponent Plus/Minus among point guards, he can be used in many tournament lineups.
Although most would consider James Harden’s performance of 48 DraftKings points Tuesday night as poor, he still managed to exceed expectations by 1.49 points. Having now averaged 60.6 DraftKings points in his last eight performances, Harden is arguably the first priority in terms of paying up for players greater than 10K.
Denver Nuggets (-6) at New Orleans Pelicans
Implied Totals: 106.3 – 100.3, O/U: 206.5
Signed to a 10-day contract as of Wednesday morning, Jordan Hamilton logged 30.9 minutes in his debut with New Orleans last night. Implied to score only 14.35 points, Hamilton is a fine tournament option. The same can be said for Alexis Ajinca, who recorded a team-high usage rate of 33.5 percent against San Antonio.
Without Jusuf Nurkic in their last two games, Emmanuel Mudiay (for whatever reason) has averaged 21.3 DraftKings points on a team-high 33.2 minutes. Given his recent decrease in salary, consider Mudiay a strong tournament option at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.85. Nikola Jokic should have limited exposure in tournaments due solely to his whopping Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.32.
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-15.5)
Implied Totals: 97 – 112.5, O/U: 209
In two starts for DeAndre Jordan (out) this season, Cole Aldrich has averaged 39.9 DraftKings points on 26.4 minutes. Even if you don’t like the matchup, he’s implied to score the absolute minimum. No matter the format — cash, tournaments, three-man, 50/50 — there’s zero reason to fade him given the combination of his upside and minuscule total needed to exceed value. Austin Rivers (expected to start in place of Chris Paul), on the other hand, can be faded with ease. Even though he is implied to score only 12.97 points, Rivers has averaged only 15.4 DraftKings points in five games without Paul this season. In fact, I’d much rather pivot to Jamal Crawford, who owns a team-high usage rate of 30.4 percent without Paul (among those active).
With Los Angeles’ three most important starters absent tonight, both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant can simply stay out of cash lineups entirely. Enes Kanter remains a strong play no matter as his Plus/Minus in games the Thunder have been favored by at least 8.5 points remains a team-high +5.8.
Boston Celtics at Portland Trailblazers (-3.5)
Implied Totals: 104.8 – 108.3, O/U: 213
Implied to score 3.12 fewer points at FanDuel, Isaiah Thomas remains cash viable due to his Dud Percentage of 7 percent. With the third-highest projected floor among point guards, Thomas also benefits from an Opponent Plus/Minus higher than the two ranked ahead of him in said category. With Jae Crowder set to return, exposure should remain more towards Boston’s backcourt — Amir Johnson, for example, averaged only 17.4 minutes after the All-Star Break alongside Crowder, but 26.1 over his last eight games without him.
(For an extended take on the Crowder Effect, be sure and check out our Trend of the Day.)
Although I wouldn’t touch him in cash — terrible matchup, high Dud Percentage, etc. — Damian Lillard has a 97 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. With the Blazers implied to score 108.5 points, it’s as good of a spot as any to fire him up in tournaments. That’s strictly at FanDuel, however. His salary at DraftKings implies a point total (39.65) that he has failed to achieve in 60 percent of his last 10 performances. Al-Farouq Aminu, on the other hand, has smashed his 90 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings by an average of +8.07 points over his last 10 games.
Portland chose to lean on a smaller rotation against a DeMarcus Cousins-less Sacramento team Tuesday night, playing Noah Vonleh and Ed Davis for an additional 3.6 and 2.9 minutes over Mason Plumlee. With the return of Crowder, Portland’s rotation could really go either way. I would have limited exposure toward Davis either way. With Aminu starting at the four as of late, the former has averaged 29.3 DraftKings points in his last seven performances.
Good luck!
