With nine games (and six players priced above $9,000), the theme of the night appears to be where you choose to spend up, if at all. Let’s sort this out.
Los Angeles Clippers (-1) at Indiana Pacers
Implied Total: 104.3 – 103.3, O/U: 207.5
One of the more underrated aspects of daily basketball is paying attention. It seems obvious, but you’d be surprised just how much of an advantage something so simple gives you over the competition; not higher stakes, per say, but certainly in larger tournaments with 100-aught entries. For instance, I generally start my day by reading every team newspaper – partly because I find it advantageous, partly because everyone at Fantasy Labs expects me to know what the hell I’m talking about.
Take Paul George. 34 points on 45% shooting (50% from beyond the arc) in his last game, including four rebounds and two blocks. Tonight seems like a terrific spot considering the Clippers are only favored by 1.5, right?
Now, take this quote from the Indy Star:
“I think a lot of it is just being overly confident that I can go out and still do the things I was doing (earlier in the season),’ George said. ‘It’s not the case. It’s hard and it’s weighing on me right now, it’s weighing on my body, it’s weighing on my mental (approach). It just sucks knowing where you were at.”
And if that weren’t enough:
“He did fully participate in Monday’s practice, but Vogel said he and the training staff will monitor the amount of minutes that George plays during the Pacers’ four-game homestand. They will also track the length of George’s rotations on the court.”
It’s very possible George finishes atop his position in tonight’s slate, especially since our models project him with the highest floor (28.5) among small forwards. Even so, does anything he said scream “ROSTER ME!”?
Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers (-3)
Implied Total: 103.8 – 100.8, O/U: 203.5
Even in their fascination with hiking prices the moment a player comes out the womb, Archie Goodwin, currently implied to score 19.41 points, admittedly still holds value. He’s averaged 30.8 DraftKings points on a team-high 37.2 minutes without Knight this season as Lorenzo Brown (nearing the end of his 10-day contract) remains the only “true” point guard behind him. With Philadelphia allowing +3.6 points above expectations at the point (+1.4 to off-ball guards), Goodwin should be considered top of his class in cash games tonight. Devin Booker, slated to start off-ball in their back court, deserves consideration more so at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 98%. Be wary of chasing Tyson Chandler’s 20 and 27 rebounds in consecutive games, as well: Markieff Morris (usage of 33.8 without Knight) is probable to return.
This is not a test: Ish Smith’s salary has decreased for the first time since January 2. It makes for odd timing considering Phoenix has allowed a top-five rate of DraftKings points to opposing point guards in their last five games, but Smith is a must-play at FanDuel where he holds a Bargain Rating of 94% — he’s implied to score an additional +5.67 at DraftKings.
Miami Heat (-4) at Brooklyn Nets
Implied Total: 96.5 – 92.5, O/U: 189
With an implied total of 189 (lowest of this slate), there’s very little reason to have much exposure here, if any. Miami has allowed a line of 19.5-13.2-2.3 to opposing centers over their last five games, keeping Brook Lopez (Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings) in play if Hassan Whiteside (doubtful) is out. On the other end, only the usual suspects of Dwayne Wade (Projected Plus/Minus of +3.1) and Chris Bosh (albeit a much lower Projected Plus/Minus of -1.6) seem worth it considering Miami’s lack of healthy bodies at the moment.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 108 – 101.5, O/U: 209.5
Implied to score 47.47 points, it’s not the worst spot for Russell Westbrook as the Thunder are only favored by 6.5 points. With a projected floor of 34.7 (second only to DeMarcus Cousins in this entire slate), it’s even more advantageous considering the Knicks have allowed +2.7 points above salary-based expectations at his position. Still, if forced to choose only one, Kevin Durant makes for the better value as he’s implied to score 43.79.
Carmelo Anthony remains tied with Greg Monroe for the second-most Pro Trends in the entire player pool. Although Durant is (obviously) projected higher across the board, exposure towards Anthony wouldn’t hurt as this game includes the second-highest total of the night. Lance Thomas’ status also remains worth watching as Derrick Williams (implied to score 20.6) has averaged 16.4 DraftKings points and 6.4 field goal attempts (in 12.6 minutes) when he’s suited up – those averages climb to 31.6/12.7/30.5 without Thomas.
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors (-7.5)
Implied Total: 106.3 – 98.8, O/U: 205
DeMar DeRozan has shot 41.2% in three games against Washington this season, averaging 43.9 DraftKings points in 38.3 minutes. Outside of Archie Goodwin, he remains one of the safer options at his position in both cash and tournaments. Other than that, “John Wall or Kyle Lowry?’ is one of the more important questions pertaining to this slate.
Though Wall has a projected floor +0.3 points higher than Lowry (27.9/27.6), it’s concerning that the former has a Dud Percentage of 28% over his last 14 games – that being when a player fails to meet the expectations set by his salary by at least 50%. Considering Lowry’s Dud Percentage of 7%, it would appear he’s safer in cash. His Projected Plus/Minus is also +2.0 points higher than that of Wall’s (and includes a pace differential of +4.1).
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5)
Implied Total: 101 – 95.5, O/U: 196.5
Victor Oladipo averaged 36.6 DraftKings points as the starting point guard of the Magic. Though he certainly won’t shoot 10% (not a mistype) from the field again, his salary still implies he score 31.83 points – he’s averaging exactly that with Elfrid Payton healthy this season. It’s too early to ignore him entirely as the newly appointed starting-five of Payton-Oladipo-Aaron Gordon- Tobias Harris-Nikola Vucevic are averaging 107.1 points per 100 possessions in their last two games, but note his usage of 14.7 in that lineup remains ahead of only Gordon’s (8.6). Still, he’s worth at least a single bullet on FanDuel where he has an absurd Bargain Rating of 99%.
Although his minutes are down from earlier in the year, Greg Monroe has exceeded expectations by average of +7.60 points in his last 10 performances, +10.01 in his last eight. With the second-highest projected floor at his position, he’s worthy to build around in cash. Khris Middleton also has the second-highest floor among shooting guards (only -0.4 points lower than that of DeMar DeRozan’s), but it should be noted that Orlando has the lowest DvP against his position over their last five games.
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trailblazers (-5.5)
Implied Total: 110 – 104.5, O/U: 214.5
Even at $11,000, our models show DeMarcus Cousins with a Projected Plus/Minus of +4.9. Though being on the second leg of a back-to-back is certainly worrisome – using our Trends tool, I can see that Cousins has averaged -2.02 points below expectations in six instances of road back-to-backs this season — note he’s averaged an increased usage of 37.5 without Rudy Gay (out). If anything, he’s worth rostering in more lineups than he’s faded in. The same can be said for Willie Cauley-Stein who’s averaged a differential of +5.9 DraftKings points in +6.0 minutes in Gay’s absence.
Damian Lillard will be the focal point of many lineups (as he should be), but there’s merit in stacking him with C.J. McCollum tonight. For starters, the Kings have been abysmal all-around in defending back courts, allowing +2.3 points above salary-based expectations to opposing point guards (+3.6 off-ball). Despite Lillard’s 47.3/39.3 DraftKings points edge over his teammate in their last five games, McCollum has averaged an additional +2.0 field goal attempts (21/19) over that time.
Either way, with the highest implied total of the night, I would look to stack this game more so than any other.
Dallas Mavericks (-7.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 104.5 – 97, O/U: 201.5
Salah Mejri came from nowhere against the Rockets, logging 29.3 minutes en route to his first double-double of the season. Implied to score only 14.81 points, he would arguably be the most valuable play of this slate if named starter for Zaza Pachulia (doubtful). It only helps that the Lakers have the highest Opponent Plus/Minus (+3.2) allowed to centers.
Lou Williams’ salary is the lowest it’s been since January 7 but, alongside Kobe, he’s failed to meet expectations by an average of -3.02 points over the last five games. Same goes for Bryant, who’s failed his expectations by -7.95 over that same timeframe. Exposure best remains focused on Julius Randle, although it should be noted that Larry Nance is expected to both return and start tonight.
Good luck!
