Wednesday brings a 10-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
There are three PGs priced over $9,000 on FanDuel tonight: Russell Westbrook ($12,400), Damian Lillard ($9,400), and John Wall ($9,200). Of the three, Lillard is rated far lower in our Pro Models than are the other two: Lillard has a poor Projected Plus/Minus of -0.33, compared to +5.20 for Westbrook and +6.35 for Wall. Wall is currently the highest-rated PG in the FD Phan Model and will face a Thunder team that has been very generous to PGs this season: Wall has a +3.06 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight. He’s projected to be owned in fewer lineups (17-20 percent) than Westbrook (21-25 percent) and is projected to play nearly two minutes more. Given their price points, Wall is the better cash-game option, although it’s hard to fade Westbrook’s 75.7-point projected FD ceiling in guaranteed prize pools.
Value
Dennis Schroder has now hit salary-based expectations in three straight games and gets a Phoenix team that plays at the fastest pace in the league yet has a bottom-10 defense. The Suns also are poor specifically against opposing PGs: Schroder has a high +3.27 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight on FD, where he comes with a +4.35 Projected Plus/Minus and 90 percent Bargain Rating. Schroder is currently projected for 31.8 minutes and a high 26.57 usage rate: He took 20 shots last game against the Warriors and has been at 15 or above in each of his last three. Eric Bledsoe is a scrappy defender, but he’s allowed a poor +3.0 DraftKings Plus/Minus to opposing PGs over the past year and 0.9 fantasy points per possession to pick-and-roll ball-handlers.
Leverage Play
On the other side of this game, Eric Bledsoe has been crushing value lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games and has posted DK Plus/Minus values of +26.85 and +17.85 in his last two. In those games, he scored 60.0 and 50.5 fantasy points thanks to Westbrook-like lines of 35-6-6 and 23-6-10. He’s playing huge minutes right now and is projected for 34.2 minutes and a high 28.4 usage rate tonight. The Hawks are great defensively this year — they rank first in defensive efficiency, allowing only 97.6 points per 100 possessions — but their weakness is at the PG with Schroder: Bledsoe has a nice +3.28 Opponent Plus/Minus in this matchup. Bledsoe is a really nice play on DK, where his $7,600 price tag comes with seven Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
One quick hit: Goran Dragic dropped 58.0 DK points last game against the Celtics and now gets a Nuggets team that allowed the 60-point game to Bledsoe and has the lowest PG Opponent Plus/Minus at +7.74.
Shooting Guard
Stud
CJ McCollum is the second-highest priced SG in the slate behind DeMar DeRozan at $7,600 DK and $7,400 FD. McCollum is certainly an interesting player tonight: He faces an Indiana team that has recently had a defensive resurgence. They currently rank 12th in defensive efficiency, allowing 102.5 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been fairly stingy to SGs, too: McCollum has a poor -2.72 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight. Of the five highest-priced SGs on FD — DeRozan, McCollum, Avery Bradley, Dwyane Wade, and Bradley Beal — only DeRozan has a positive Opponent Plus/Minus tonight (+2.20), although even that is coming down with Tony Allen back for the Grizzlies. That said, McCollum leads all SGs with a +4.25 Projected Plus/Minus and is projected for 36.1 minutes and a 28.13 usage rate. His $7,400 FD price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Tony Allen is never a particularly fun player to roster in DFS, but he easily leads all FD SGs with a +7.08 Projected Plus/Minus. According to our NBA News feed, the Grizzlies will be without Mike Conley, Vince Carter, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis, Brandan Wright, and Zach Randolph. They will dress only nine players, which means that Allen will have to play heavy minutes on the wing. He’ll face a Raptors team that currently ranks only 22nd defensively on the year, although they have been more stingy against SGs because of DeRozan’s offensive game: Allen has a -1.92 FD Opponent Plus/Minus tonight. That said, SG is really tough tonight and Allen is only $4,000 on FD, where he comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Zach LaVine is fresh off of a 47.6-point FD outing against the tough Utah Jazz defense thanks to 28 real points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. Tonight he gets a much easier matchup against a Knicks team that ranks 26th defensively this year, allowing a poor 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Further, LaVine boasts the best Opponent Plus/Minus among all FD SGs at +4.72. He’s projected to play a whopping 38.5 minutes and use 21.95 percent of the Wolves’ possessions while on the floor. He’s a better value on FD — his $6,200 salary comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating there — but he’s a really nice tournament option on both sites.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has been excellent this year and especially recently: He’s hit salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging 12.19 FD points across that time frame. He’s priced way up at $9,000 on both sites, but (much like McCollum with the SG crop) he’s the only player among five highest-priced SFs with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus at +0.96 on DK. Notably, Kawhi Leonard has an awful -4.58 Opp Plus/Minus against a Dallas team that plays at the second-slowest pace in the league, and the Spurs are implied for only 98.75 points. Chicago, on the other hand, is currently implied for a slate-high 110.25 points, and Butler is projected for 36.7 minutes and a solid 26.19 usage rate. If you’re paying up, Butler is definitely the safest option: He has the highest-projected floor at 25.1 FD points.
Value
Troy Williams is one of the nine players available for the Grizzlies tonight. He has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last two games and is currently projected for 32.2 minutes and an 18.82 usage rate against the Raptors. This is a mediocre matchup for him — he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.08 on FD — but he’s only $3,700 on FD, where he comes with a position-high +4.89 Projected Plus/Minus and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Williams has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last three games, scoring at least 17.9 FD points in each. That isn’t particularly exciting production from the rookie, but his FD salary requires only 14.11 fantasy points to hit value. He’s a fine play given the Grizzlies’ lack of depth on the wing.
Leverage Play
Otto Porter has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging 4.24 FD points. He’s been incredibly consistent, scoring at least 23.9 FD points in each of his last five games. His minutes have been a bit volatile lately, but he’s projected for 33.9 tonight against a Thunder team that plays at the sixth-fastest pace in the league. Porter is a nice value on FD, where his $6,100 price tag comes with a +3.36 Projected Plus/Minus and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. This game has the second-highest Vegas total on the board at 212 points, and the Wiz are currently six-point dogs. Andre Roberson is a solid defender, but he has allowed a mediocre 1.0 DK points per minute to opposing SFs in the last year.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis has a been on a roll lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last eight games, averaging 7.66 FD points per game. He’s priced up tonight but still remains an elite play at $7,500 on FD, where he comes with a position-high +4.81 Projected Plus/Minus and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for 35.6 minutes and a 25.65 usage rate against the Timberwolves, who have the 23rd-ranked defense this year, allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions. He’s projected to be owned in a position-high 21-25 percent of FD GPP lineups, which makes him a potential fade.
Value
Tobias Harris has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last four games, scoring at least 23.1 FD points in each and dropping 39.4 just last night against the Hornets. Tonight he is projected for 34.8 minutes and a 21.0 usage rate against a Celtics team that ranks 18th defensively, allowing 104.1 points per 100 possessions on the year. Harris has a nice +2.48 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight, although he could be challenged if he matches up against Al Horford, who is currently projected to start at PF with Amir Johnson manning the center position. The Pistons are currently eight-point dogs implied to score only 96.0 points on the road, but their total has moved up 1.2 points since opening. Given how bad PF is this year, Tobias’ $5,300 price tag on FD — which comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating — is a nice value in this slate.
Leverage Play
After crushing salary-based expectations on FD by a whopping 17.01 points five games ago, Thaddeus Young has struggled a bit, hitting value in only one of his four contests. However, his past four games have come against the Clippers, Nets, Hawks, and Warriors — all disastrously good or bad teams depending on the week. Tonight he is projected for 32.0 minutes in what is one of the best matchups in the NBA: He’ll face the Portland Trail Blazers, who rank dead last defensively this year, allowing an embarrassing 110.5 points per 100 possessions. They rank 26th in rebound rate, grabbing only 47.8 percent of the available boards. Thad is currently the fourth-highest rated PF in the Phan Model for FD, where he comes with only 13-16 percent projected ownership, 10 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Stud
After facing the tough defenses of the Jazz and Warriors, Karl-Anthony Towns will now get a Knicks team that ranks 26th defensively on the year, allowing 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Towns has still played well recently — he dropped 38.9 and 41.3 FD points in those two games — and he has a huge ceiling in tonight’s matchup. He has a +2.55 FD Opponent Plus/Minus and will possibly face a lot of Kyle O’Quinn if Joakim Noah is ruled out (he’s been downgraded to questionable). Towns is projected for 34.1 minutes and a 27.39 usage rate tonight; the Wolves are currently implied for 107.25 points — the fourth-highest mark in the slate. He’s an elite play on DK, where his low $8,300 price tag comes with 12 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Joel Embiid yet again has the highest Projected Plus/Minus (+6.22) on FD, where his $6,200 salary comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He doesn’t have a particularly easy matchup tonight — his Opponent Plus/Minus sits at -0.29 against the Nuggets — but he just dropped 41.8 points against a tougher Cavs team in his last start. He’s been above 30 FD points in each of his last four games, and his FD salary requires only 25.08 fantasy points for him to hit value. He’s second among all centers (trailing DeMarcus Cousins) in fantasy points per minute (1.37) and projected usage rate (36.47). He’ll remain on his minutes limit, but he’s definitely a safe play at that salary.
Leverage Play
Marc Gasol is one of the nine players available for the Grizzlies tonight, but he might actually be the only player that is any good offensively. As such, he’s projected for 32.4 minutes and a large 30.41 usage rate; without Mike Conley, the Grizz will have to run essentially their entire offensive through Gasol. Thankfully, he has a really nice matchup tonight: In fact, his +5.03 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD is the third-highest mark among all centers tonight behind the Indy guys versus Portland. Gasol leads all FD centers with 14 Pro Trends and has an 81 percent Bargain Rating there. It’s tough to gauge his ownership tonight, but it could be a bit lower than expected because the Grizz are currently implied to score only 91.75 points. If that’s the case, he’s a really nice GPP option.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
