Thursday brings a six-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Chris Paul scored a season-high 68.5 DraftKings points in a double-overtime game with Blake Griffin resting on Tuesday. His salary has since risen to a season-high of $9,100 on both sites. His +2.11 Opponent Plus/Minus and the Cavaliers-Clippers Vegas Over/Under of 214.5 are enticing data points, but you can pay $100 more for Stephen Curry, who faces the fourth-worst defense and benefits from a 231 Over/Under. Both are tournament targets for different reasons: Paul’s ownership will suffer compared to Curry’s, and Curry’s Warriors are a slate-best 11-point favorites. Point guards have fared much better against the Cavaliers (+2.48 Plus/Minus) rather than the Rockets (-1.37 Plus/Minus) on DraftKings, and all seven points guards — three didn’t face Patrick Beverley — priced above $6,200 failed to meet salary-based expectations against the Rockets this season.
Values
Andrew Harrison and D.J Augustin remain in the conversation as cheap starting point guards. Harrison played well enough last night to at least consider him on FanDuel at $3,900, and Augustin was promoted to the starting unit three games ago. The difference between the two is $200 on FanDuel, but the projected ownership is much higher for Harrison (31-35 percent). Augustin has had less variance in his production this season, and Harrison has struggled to orchestrate the offense. They’ll face each other tonight, and the choice may boil down to which one fits in your lineup.
Leverage Plays
Matthew Dellavedova costs more than Augustin and Harrison. Point guards playing against the Nets have averaged a +2.38 Plus/Minus, and Dellavedova already tagged them for a season-high 36.1 FanDuel points at the end of October. Giannis Antetokounmpo will garner more consideration after averaging a +12.87 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in eight games against the Nets in his career, but Dellavedova leads all points guards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76 on DraftKings. The Bucks-Nets game has the second-highest Over/Under at 215.5, and the Nets are currently ranked second in pace and second-worst in defense.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden leads all players with 16 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his projected ownership is greater than 40 percent. In two of the last three games, he failed to reach today’s implied point total of 47.47 points on FanDuel, and the Warriors did a good job containing Russell Westbrook to 42.2 FanDuel points earlier this year. It’s not a direct one-to-one comparison, but it’s the closest proxy we can draw this early in the season. His $12,000 price tag on DraftKings is too prohibitive, but if he can bedevil the Warriors’ defense — one that ranks third over the last 10 games — FanDuel is the spot where you want to load up on tournament shares.
Value
Klay Thompson has two things going for him: The Rockets’ lackluster defense and shooting guards’ +1.08 Plus/Minus on FanDuel when playing the Rockets this season. Thompson leads all Warriors with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.09, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games. Thompson’s production tends to come in spurts, but he has the best matchup outside of Draymond Green’s battle against Ryan Anderson, who has played less than 30 minutes in five straight games. Thompson will likely be the primary defender on Harden, which could lead to foul trouble: He averaged 3.3 fouls per game against the Rockets last season, up from his yearly average of 1.9. J.J. Redick offers an alternative solution at a cheaper price.
Leverage Play
Evan Fournier has thrived as the primary playmaker since D.J. Khaled Augustin replaced Elfrid Payton in the starting lineup. Fournier has led the team with 14 total assists, and Augustin’s presence in the lineup has created more floor space on offense. When Fournier is on the court without Payton, his usage rate increases to 28 percent and his assist rate improves 15.2 percent.
Only five shooting guards projected for at least 25 minutes have failed to exceed salary-based expectations against the Grizzlies this season, and that same group is averaging a +4.77 Plus/Minus on 68 percent Consistency. Fournier ranks second among shooting guards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.03 on FanDuel and +3.55 on DraftKings. People may automatically dismiss Fournier assuming Tony Allen will be his primary defender, but Peter Edmiston debunked that myth:
Opponents shoot better when Allen is on the floor than any other Grizzlies defender. Opponents have shot 42.1 percent with Allen off the floor and 47.5 percent with him on. His defensive rating is third-worst on the team behind Troy Williams and Zach Randolph.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has struggled over his past five games against the Rockets, posting a -3.91 Plus/Minus and exceeding salary-based expectations one time. His salary has dropped incrementally compared to his cost during last season’s games, and he was able to average 45.36 FanDuel points — 2.72 points higher than his implied point total today.
LeBron James dropped a dud against the Clippers last time out, and he’ll be guarded by Luc Mbah a Moute, one of the best on-ball defenders in the league.
The Rockets have allowed opponents to convert 65.1 percent of their attempts in the restricted area, and Durant is shooting a league-high and career-high 82.7 percent in that zone. Alternatively, James leads all players on FanDuel with a Projected Plus/Minus of +8.15. His ceiling and floor are comparable to Harden’s on FanDuel, yet James costs $1,600 less. Additionally, his $9,300 salary on DraftKings is his second lowest of the season. Durant offers the safer floor, but James’ ceiling and cheaper price point elevate him over Durant if the choice is between the two.
Values
I want to take this time to remind you that the Magic’s defensive rating is best in the league since they replaced Aaron Gordon in the starting lineup with Jeff Green (10 games), and the Grizzlies are playing their fifth game in seven nights. Four players definitely won’t play, and the statuses of Vince Carter and Zach Randolph remain uncertain. Ergo, fire up Troy Williams at $3,700 on FanDuel if you’re looking to save. Tony Snell is roughly the same price as Williams on both sites, he leads all small forwards in Opponent Plus/Minus on both sites, and the Bucks’ Vegas implied point total is 110.5 — the second-highest mark on the slate.
Leverage Play
Bojan Bogdanovic scored a season-high 39 DraftKings points against the Bucks this season, and, in eight games over the past three seasons against his former coach’s team, Bogdanovic recorded a +9.82 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Small forwards opposing the Bucks have averaged a +1.59 Plus/Minus this season, and the Bucks have yielded the third-most 3-point attempts per game, the area where Bogdanovic will make his bones. I think the public will points-chase with Sean Kilpatrick, but Bogdanovic is cheaper and has already proven himself against the Bucks this season.
Power Forward
Studs
Blake Griffin should return to the Clippers’ lineup after resting on Tuesday. He was kicked in the calf against the Pistons two games prior and dealt with some swelling. He faces a team that has suppressed power forwards this season, and he failed to meet salary-based expectations in his previous three contests. Draymond Green is cheaper on both platforms, but Griffin leads all power forwards with a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.33 and projected ownership of at least 41 percent on FanDuel. Green is likely still dealing with lingering ankle soreness, and he’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations in six of his past seven games on DraftKings. Both present challenges, but the four-point Vegas spread in the Clippers-Cavaliers game mitigates the blowout factor. Griffin offers the higher ceiling and floor, but Green gets the better matchup and the Warriors’ slate-best implied total of 121.
Value
I don’t know what trick coach David Fizdale has up his sleeve tonight regarding rotations, but, if Zach Randolph doesn’t rejoin the team, JaMychal Green will instantly become a lock at his price on both sites. He needs only 20.15 DraftKings points or 17.18 FanDuel points to hit value as a starting power forward on a team with roughly 10 healthy players.
Leverage Play
Kevin Love leads all power forwards in average DFS production over the past month. He’s not quite as expensive as his counterpart in Griffin tonight, but he’s not cheaper than Green either. Love narrowly missed meeting expectation in Tuesday’s blowout loss to the Bucks, and it’s fair to say the Clippers’ defense has regressed. I imagine a scenario in which Mbah a Moute forces LeBron to be more of a facilitator, and that should bode well for Love.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside has exceeded 53 DraftKings points in two straight games. Coincidentally, Goran Dragic returned two games prior from an elbow injury. When Dragic is on the court, Whiteside’s field goal percentage increases 5.9 percent. Dragic has assisted Whiteside more than any other player on the Heat, and Whiteside has made 62.5 percent of his shots after receiving a pass from Dragic. All this is good news for Whiteside. However, the first time Whiteside faced the Jazz, he was restricted to 39 DraftKings points.
Value
If Andrew Bogut plays, he’ll qualify on DraftKings . . . is how I actually started this section. Bogut has since been ruled out, and that shifts Salah Mejri into instant consideration on both sites. He played 32 minutes in his last start and contributed 30.7 FanDuel points. I don’t believe Rick Carlisle has announced his starter this evening, but, if Mejri is the guy, he’s a lock. He’s already projected to be owned in 31-35 percent of DraftKings GPPs.
Leverage Play
The previous two times Rudy Gobert faced the Heat, he notched at least 30.75 DraftKings points. That number is significant because his implied point total today is 30.15. Centers facing the Heat this season have maintained a +3.32 Plus/Minus, and Gobert has recorded four straight double-doubles. He’s the third-most expensive center-only option on DraftKings, but his projected ownership is less than that of DeAndre Jordan, who costs the same salary.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
