The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has been playing well of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.64 on FanDuel over his last 10 games. He has a solid matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.87. One thing that could be worth monitoring in this game is the status of opposing PG Dennis Schroder, who is currently questionable with an ankle injury. Schroder has been one of the worst defensive PGs in the league, so his absence would actually result in a slightly worse matchup for Westbrook. The Hawks are also currently 10.5-point underdogs, so they could struggle to keep this game close with Schroder out of the lineup.
John Wall has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings and has an excellent matchup today against the Brooklyn Nets. The big question with Wall is how many minutes he’ll play in this matchup. He’s increased his minute count in all four games since returning from injury, culminating in 33.5 in his last game against the Pelicans. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games and has a chance to destroy his current salary on DraftKings if he sees another bump in minutes today.
Value
Damian Lillard will miss today’s contest for the Trailblazers, which should result in some extra minutes for Shabazz Napier. So far this season, he’s averaged 28.5 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Lillard off the court:
He looks like one of the better value options of the day at just $3,700 on FanDuel, especially considering his plus matchup with the Denver Nuggets.
Fast Break
The Heat will continue to be extremely shorthanded today, with Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow joining Hassan Whiteside and James Johnson on the bench. Tyler Johnson has thrived in the last two games without Dragic, averaging 38.2 minutes and over 30 DraftKings points per game:
He remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Jamal Murray has been awesome recently, scoring at least 32.75 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Gary Harris is currently questionable for today’s contest, and if he were to sit, Murray should continue to see a big boost in value. So far this season, he’s seen the largest usage bump on the team with Harris off the court:
Injury value abounds at the PG position today. Milos Teodosic will get the day off for rest, which will likely result in extra playing time for both Austin Rivers and Jawun Evans. Both players have a solid matchup against the Houston Rockets, with the Clippers owning the largest pace differential (paceD) of the day at +4.3.
Shooting Guard
Studs
SG features two players who figure to see a huge bumps in usage today: James Harden and CJ McCollum. Harden will be playing without Chris Paul – he’s seen a boost in usage rate, assist rate, and fantasy production with Paul off the court this season:
He’s averaged over 53 DraftKings points per game in 14 games without Paul, and that doesn’t include the 71.25 points he scored against the Lakers on Wednesday when Paul left the game early. The Rockets lead the slate with an implied team total of 116.75 points and are also the largest favorites of the day. While the 12.5-point spread might be a little concerning, Harden has historically thrived in comparable situations:
He should rightfully be one of the highest owned players of the day.
Like Harden, McCollum should see a lot more of the ball today with his star PG on the sidelines. So far this season, McCollum has seen a usage increase of almost six percent when playing without Lillard:
While his fantasy numbers aren’t all that impressive, averaging just 33.56 FanDuel points per 36 minutes, McCollum averaged over 43 fantasy points per game in five games without Lillard last season. He offers a ton of upside today, especially on FanDuel at just $6,900.
Value
Harden isn’t the only member of the Rockets who should see a boost without Paul. Eric Gordon has seen a usage bump of 2.6 percent and averaged 28.59 FanDuel points in games without Paul this season:
At just $5,400 on FanDuel, that would be more than enough production to return value at his current salary.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal will likely be overlooked on today’s slate, but he’s in an excellent spot in his own right. He has a wonderful matchup with the Brooklyn Nets and the Wizards could be a bit shorthanded with Otto Porter Jr currently questionable. No one on the Wizards has seen a larger boost in production with Porter off the court this season than Beal:
He seems underpriced on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Small Forward
Studs
The battle at the top of the SF position comes down to Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Durant is coming off a poor showing in his last game, but it’s hard to discount what he’s done in games without Steph Curry this season:
He’s been a monster on both ends of the court, combining a usage rate of nearly 37 percent with an average of 2.68 blocks + steals per game. He has an outstanding matchup today with Los Angeles Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.20 on FanDuel. That said, the big caveat for Durant is that Draymond Green is expected to make his return to the lineup today. While he likely wont eat into Durant’s usage very much, he could certainly impact his production in all the peripheral categories. At his current elevated salary, that could be an issue.
Giannis doesn’t have nearly as friendly a matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, but he could make up for it by the sheer volume of minutes he’s playing. He leads the league with an average of 38.0 minutes per game and has played more than 38 minutes in each of his last six games. He’s averaged 1.49 fantasy points per minute over the last month on DraftKings, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.95 over his last 10 games.
Ultimately, the decision between Giannis and KD could come down to which site you’re playing on: Giannis seems like the better value on DraftKings, owning a Bargain Rating of 93 percent, while Durant has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent on FanDuel.
Value
Trevor Ariza has been rock solid recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 10 games on DraftKings. He exploded for 48.75 fantasy points in his last outing, thanks in part to the injuries to Paul and Clint Capela resulting in a whopping 45 minutes of court time. His current minute projection of 44.7 is first on the slate by a mile, and he remains affordable at just $5,500 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has been running a much larger portion of the offense for the Heat given all their injuries, which has resulted in some big fantasy numbers over his last four games:
His matchup with the Mavericks isn’t ideal for fantasy purposes, but he still offers substantial upside at his current salary.
Given all the new injuries for today’s slate, it’s easy to forget how shorthanded the Magic still are. They’ll likely be without Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon once again, which means that Jonathon Simmons should maintain his massive role in the offense. He put up a clunker in his last game but has averaged a usage rate of 26.8 percent and 34.63 FanDuel points in games without both players this season.
Power Forward
Stud
If you’re looking to get contrarian today, consider paying up for Anthony Davis. Virtually no one is going to choose him over Harden, Durant, or Giannis, which means that he should have minuscule ownership in an exploitable matchup against the Orlando Magic. The Pelicans implied team total of 112.75 points ranks third on today’s slate, and Orlando doesn’t have anyone on their roster than can cover him given the injury to Gordon.
Value
Jordan Mickey will likely continue to see a healthy role off the bench for the Heat and has a solid matchup today against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, which should play into the strengths of a guy like Mickey.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma is coming off a career-best 55.4 FanDuel points in his last outing and has played 40 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s been priced up pretty aggressively on both sites, but still has the potential to pay off his salary in an uptempo game against the Warriors. The more intriguing Lakers option, however, could be Julius Randle. He burned a lot of people on Wednesday, which makes him a prime buy-low candidate today. He scored 34.25 DraftKings points against this same Warriors team on Monday and is substantially cheaper than Kuzma after their last game.
John Henson has PF-eligibility on FanDuel, but will likely be needed at center today for the Bucks to combat the size of Dwight Howard. Henson has played at least 28.5 minutes in three of his last four games and has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic had a down performance in his last game against the Bulls, which resulted in a salary decrease of $500 on DraftKings. His new salary makes him very appealing today against the New Orleans Pelicans, especially considering what he’s done over his last 10 games:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.67 on DraftKings, making this a solid matchup as long as he can avoid foul trouble against the big man duo of the Pelicans.
Value
Clint Capela is doubtful for today’s contest, which means that Nene will likely draw the start for the Houston Rockets. He didn’t see a huge boost in production in his last game without Capela, however the Lakers don’t employ a traditional center given the injury to Brook Lopez. That won’t be an issue today with DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers, making Nene one of the more intriguing value options on the slate.
Fast Break
Dwight Howard has an awesome matchup today against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been one of the best matchups in the league for centers this season:
He’s a strong value on DraftKings at just $7,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Steven Adams returned from his concussion last game, but ultimately played just 26 minutes in a blowout win. He should be able to return to his normal workload if today’s game stays close, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.09 against the Atlanta Hawks. He’s one of the few centers on the slate to actually own a better Bargain Rating on FanDuel than DraftKings, which increases his appeal on the former.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
