NFL Week 10 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers at 8:15 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
With a fairly high 50-point Vegas total, there should be plenty of offensive goodness to go around in this one. Particularly on the Rams’ fairly concentrated offense, which is likely to be more concentrated following the loss of Robert Woods for the season.
Any discussion about the Rams offense needs to start with Cooper Kupp. Kupp leads all players in DraftKings points in Week 10, as well as wide receivers on FanDuel. While Kupp is a strong play every week, there’s an extra reason to be high on him this week.
Woods’ absence from the Rams offense is noteworthy. Woods was second on the team with a 22% target share through nine games. While new addition Odell Beckham Jr. will likely slot into Woods’ role, he’s reportedly only going to play on a handful of snaps Monday night as he adjusts to the new offense. This could lead to an even bigger target share for Kupp, who leads the league in targets as it is.
Next, the 49ers struggle against the pass. They rank 25th in DVOA and are allowing the fifth-highest completion percentage on the season. For a high-volume, moderate-average-depth-of-target (aDOT) player like Kupp, catch rate is incredibly important.
This game also looks to be close with the Rams as only 3.5-point favorites. The Rams are quick to abandon the passing game when leading by a lot, which limits Kupp’s value. In the Rams double-digit wins, Stafford is averaging 31 pass attempts. In their other games, he’s averaging 39.5.
This brings me to my next point: playing Kupp in the captain spot only makes sense if building around 49ers pieces as well. Kupp could score enough points to be a solid flex play in a Rams blowout, but as the most expensive option on DraftKings, we need a back-and-forth game for him to provide value.
Playing Kupp as your captain and still fitting Matthew Stafford is a challenge, with that pairing costing $28,800 on DraftKings. It might not be necessary, though, as Kupp could post a big game without bringing Stafford along due to his outsized target share. It makes slightly more sense on FanDuel, where Stafford is the more expensive of the pair. On DraftKings, playing Stafford as the captain is easier to fit.
If rostering Stafford in the captain position, you’re betting both on the Niners to keep up and Stafford to spread the ball around more than anticipated this week. Playing Stafford at captain without Kupp feels uncomfortable but will be a fairly unique construction this week.
Darrell Henderson is being used as a true lead back for the Rams. He’s accounted for 70% of the running back carries when healthy, as well as 88% of the targets. He lacks the true 20+ touch upside we’d like to see for a player at his price, though. The only game where Henderson has more than 20 total touches was the Rams’ 38-11 blowout win over the Giants.
That means we need to build Henderson lineups around Rams blowout scenarios — or bet on a few big plays. The former scenario seems more likely here, as Henderson has only one game with a rush of 20 or more yards on the season.
Jimmy Garoppolo is more reasonably priced on FanDuel, coming in at $3,000 cheaper than Stafford and making for a better Pts/Sal play. The pricing on DraftKings makes getting to Jimmy G a bit trickier, though. It’s hard to see a scenario where he has a big game. He’s only $800 cheaper than Stafford on DraftKings, which leaves him near the bottom in Pts/Sal.
Garoppolo has played well since coming back as the starter, though. Over the past two weeks, he has four total touchdowns and has passed for over 300 yards in both games. That includes last week against Arizona — the league’s second-best pass defense by DVOA. That bodes well against the Rams’ tough defense. He doesn’t provide much with his legs — only 33 rushing yards in six full games played (although he does have three rushing touchdowns).
Given the fairly spread-out nature of San Fransisco’s passing attack, you’ll want at least two of his primary pass-catchers if you’re including Garroppolo in tournament lineups. Conversely, for cash lineups playing Garropolo by himself is fine. It’s unlikely that passing production concentrates around any of the receivers to a high degree. That means just having the quarterback will capture most of the production. That’s valuable with tight pricing like we have this week.
Since Brandon Aiyuk emerged from the doghouse in Week 8, he and Deebo Samuel have split targets almost evenly. Samuel has an 18-15 lead in that time frame. Of course, Deebo is also the far more explosive receiver, averaging 18 yards per catch to Aiyuk’s 12.
The Rams defense ranks 23rd in completion percentage allowed to opposing teams but sixth in yards per pass attempt. That’s only possible due to severely limiting big plays against them through the air. That doesn’t mean Samuel can’t buck that trend, but his odds of breaking a 70+ yard touchdown are much lower this week than in most matchups. Neither receiver projects very well on DraftKings, with both of them outside of the top 10 in Pts/Sal. Aiyuk is way too cheap on FanDuel, though, where he trails only his quarterback in Pts/Sal.
Midrange
On the Niners’ side, our models like Elijah Mitchell. He leads all players over $6,000 in DraftKings salary in Pts/Sal. The Rams are very tough against the pass but mediocre against the run. Mitchell also opens up a lot of options as a captain. Those lineups should be built around the idea of the 49ers getting ahead — or at least keeping things close. So mix in Jimmy Garoppolo and one of his pass-catchers in those lineups.
George Kittle stands out this week as the best of that group. In his first game back from injury, he posted a 6/101/1 line on eight targets. The Rams secondary is holding opposing receivers to a -1.4 Opponent Plus/Minus. However, they’re softer over the middle, allowing tight ends a +0.4 mark.
As mentioned above, Odell Beckham is unlikely to have a major role this week, having signed with the Rams on Thursday. His price on both sites makes him fairly prohibitive, given the expected volume. Still, stranger things have happened than Sean McVay drawing up a few trick plays for his new toy. With the field unlikely to roster much Beckham, there’s a slim chance he can pay off with a few explosive plays.
Tyler Higbee hasn’t quite lived up to the hype for the Rams this year, but his price has finally adjusted to more closely match his production than his pre-season expectations. Especially on FanDuel, where he leads the slate in Projected Plus/Minus. The loss of Woods is another reason to be optimistic about Higbee. Outside of Woods, only Kupp and Higbee have at least a 10% target share on the season. Unless Beckham steps in for a more significant role than expected, those targets have to go somewhere. Higbee’s inconsistency is concerning, but this is on paper his best shot all year at a big game.
The other leading candidate to replace Woods’ targets this week is Van Jefferson; serving as the Rams’ third wide receiver, he’s already received at least six targets in three straight games. Like Woods, Jefferson plays most of his snaps lined up outside (with Kupp in the slot). While he’s unlikely to see his usual target share plus Woods’s, jumping from his 14% target share to Woods’ 21% is a reasonable expectation.
Quick Hits
- Defenses and Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them. The Rams defense has the most sacks in the NFL this season. Playing them in lineups with Darrell Henderson (particularly Henderson at captain) makes some sense here. Henderson is likelier to have a big game if the Rams are dominating.
- Ben Skowronek ($200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel) is the only other (current) Rams receiver with a target on the season. The Rams’ depth chart lists him as Kupp’s direct backup, but he could fill in as the third receiver when Beckham isn’t on the field. On FanDuel, he’s a bit pricey for his expected role, but he’s a reasonable punt on DraftKings at the minimum salary.
- Sony Michel ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) typically mixes in for 7-9 carries a game and a target or two. If the Rams take a run-heavy approach this week (either due to a blowout or lack of receiver depth), that could be slightly higher this time. He’d still need a big run or two to pay off his salary on both sites.
- Jeff Wilson ($1,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) is set to make his 2021 debut on Monday. With JaMycal Hasty out, he could have a role in the offense this week. Probably not a large one, but perhaps enough to pay off his minuscule DraftKings salary.
