MLB Trend of the Day: High-Priced Pitchers With Bad Vegas Data

At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.

MLB Trend of the Day: High-Priced Pitchers With Bad Vegas Data

In perusing the data for this slate, I noticed immediately that Justin Verlander’s salary on DraftKings is high and that his Vegas numbers are not good.

He’s priced at $11,600 and his opposition (Kansas City) is projected to score four runs. Typically, when we see pitchers priced as high as Verlander is, they’re accompanied by low Vegas totals. My hypothesis is that, when we use our Trends tool to screen for pitchers comparable to Verlander, we’ll see a cohort with a low Plus/Minus. Fortunately, it takes us maybe only 30 seconds to create this trend.

For an unparalleled DFS edge, try our free Trends tool, through which you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.

Step 1: Player Filters > Salary > 10,000 to 13,000

I’m setting our low and high parameters here because, as Matt Freedman pointed out yesterday, it is much better to make balanced trends than threshold ones.

As you can see, pitchers priced in Verlander’s range have typically returned a nice value, to the tune of a +1.23 Plus/Minus. Let’s now apply our Vegas filter and see how it affects the value.

Step 2: Vegas Filters > Opp Runs > 3.8 to 4.5

Again, balanced trends, not misrepresentative threshold ones.

Ouch. Our Plus/Minus dips to -2.17 in these circumstances — a total drop of 3.40 points from our baseline. This is a situation we likely want to avoid.

As you can see from the relatively small sample of 205 pitchers, it’s not all that common for a high-priced pitcher to find himself going against a team with a high implied run total. And, as the data shows, it’s a very negative situation to be in.

Per our Plus/Minus metric, Verlander has elevated expectations because of his high salary. With our free Trends tool, we can see how unlikely he is to meet those expectations.